???? 據海灣時報2月8日報道，截至上周末，美元指數報91.042，今年迄今已飆升逾1%。在中長期貨幣前景脆弱的情況下，在當前美國經濟大規模貨幣和財政刺激政策的背景下，美元繼續上行的趨勢預計仍將得到一定程度的遏制，美聯儲“長期走低”的立場不變，全球經濟有望強勁復蘇。

????美國上個月增加了4.9萬個工作崗位，失業率降至6.3%，這表明勞動力市場正在企穩。截至上周末，歐元兌美元匯率報1.2046，今年迄今歐元下跌逾1%。歐元區的疫苗接種進程滯后，該地區的經濟復蘇仍遙遙無期，仍存在再次降息的可能，這些都導致歐元走弱。截至上周末，英鎊兌美元匯率為1.3735，今年迄今上漲不到1%。上周，在貨幣政策委員會(MPC)的一致投票下，英格蘭銀行決定不將利率下調至負值。

????截至上周末，日元兌美元匯率為105.39日元，今年迄今已下跌逾2%。截至上周末，瑞士法郎兌美元匯率為0.899。今年迄今該指數已下跌1.5%。印度盧比兌美元匯率為72.92，由于股市的強勁流入，今年迄今盧比已小幅走強。南非蘭特兌美元匯率為14.844，今年迄今已下跌逾1%。巴西雷亞爾兌美元匯率為5.3778，今年迄今已下跌3.5%。俄羅斯盧布兌美元匯率為74.6495，今年迄今下跌不到1%。

????在出行限制期延長的情況下，油價上漲是否會持續？今年的平均油價預計為55美元/桶，如果需求真的回升，可能很快就會看到石油供應短缺，因為美國的產量不會很快恢復。由于政府在全球范圍內分發疫苗，對石油需求增強的預期也在支撐價格，加上歐佩克+產油國較高的減產協議遵守率，只能說市場保持了相當好的供需平衡。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 海灣時報

????原文如下：

????Can the oil price rally sustain?

????The dollar index was at 91.042 by end of last week and had surged by more than 1% YTD. The continuation of the uptrend in the dollar is expected to remain somewhat contained amidst the fragile outlook for the currency in the medium/longer-term, and always against the backdrop of the current massive monetary/fiscal stimulus in the US economy, the “lower for longer” stance from the Fed and prospects of a strong recovery in the global economy.

????The US economy added 49,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell to 6.3%, suggesting that the labour market is stabilising. The Euro was at $1.2046 by end of last week and euro weakened by more than 1% YTD. The eurozone seen as lagging behind on vaccinations, an economic recovery seen as still far away and another interest rate cut still a possibility has made the euro weaker. The pound was at $1.3735 by end of last week and surged by less than 1% YTD. Last week the Bank of England opted to not cut interest rates into negative territory, and has done so with a unanimous vote of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

????The yen was at 105.39 against the US dollar by end of last week and has weakened by more than 2% YTD. The Swiss franc was at 0.899 against the US dollar by end of last week. It had weakened by 1.5% YTD.

????On emerging economy currencies the Indian rupee was at 72.92 against the dollar by end of last week and has marginally strengthened YTD on account of strong inflows in stock market.

????The South African Rand was at 14.844 against the dollar by end of last week and has weakened by more than 1% YTD.

????The Brazil real was at 5.3778 against the dollar by end of last week and has weakened by 3.5% YTD against the dollar.

????The Russian rouble was at 74.6495 against the dollar by end of last week and had weakened by less than 1% YTD.

????We need to see whether this oil rally sustains amid lockdown extensions. The average oil price this year is expected to be $55/barrel. If demand really picks up, we could see shortage of oil quickly, because US production isn’t going to come back fast. The expectation for stronger oil demand is also supporting prices, with government’s worldwide distributing Covid-19 vaccines. We see a lot of discipline from Opec+ and therefore the market is being held in balance quite well.?