???? 據(jù)今日油價2月4日報道，在經(jīng)歷了2020年石油需求暴跌后，本周我們迎來了一些市場復(fù)蘇的里程碑式進(jìn)展。西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格觸及并突破了每桶55.00美元的水平，布倫特原油價格接近每桶60美元。這些是市場的一些重要心理障礙關(guān)卡，如果當(dāng)前勢頭持續(xù)保持下去，就像預(yù)期的那樣，將推高價格。
????首先，庫存下降的報告支撐了油價。
????美國石油協(xié)會宣布，原油庫存大幅減少約430萬桶，預(yù)計后續(xù)將小幅增加。汽油和餾分油庫存的下降支撐了這一價格走勢，這表明煉油廠正在生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)品以滿足當(dāng)前和預(yù)期的需求。
????最近幾周，油價一直不受不利數(shù)據(jù)(原油和成品油庫存增加)的影響，并繼續(xù)小幅走高。需求得到確認(rèn)后，市場松了一口氣，推動西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格突破了每桶55.00美元的關(guān)鍵關(guān)口。
????如果美國能源信息署(EIA)的數(shù)據(jù)是樂觀的，我們預(yù)計原油、西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油和布倫特原油價格將繼續(xù)走高，同時，原油價格的持續(xù)上漲將很快扭轉(zhuǎn)石油股票市場的低迷局面。要知道，石油股票價格從近期高點下跌15-20%，這與近期石油相關(guān)基礎(chǔ)數(shù)據(jù)的強勁走勢明顯脫節(jié)。
????其次，原油供應(yīng)量回到5年來平均水平。
????上周的供應(yīng)量約為9.9萬桶，這是自2020年年中以來，供應(yīng)量首次回到5年平均水平。這消除了原油價格持續(xù)上漲的另一個心理障礙，因為市場現(xiàn)在開始將擔(dān)憂從庫存過剩轉(zhuǎn)移到安全供應(yīng)上。
????EIA指出，上周煉油廠產(chǎn)量有所增加，這是意料之外的。但盡管如此，仍然比一年前少了200萬桶/天。這一增長對價格是有利的，因為它意味著零售層面的需求不斷上升。
????第三，美國石油產(chǎn)量開始下降。
????過去一個月的時間里，由于鉆探但未完成的原油產(chǎn)量上升了約1100萬桶/天。盡管新鉆井?dāng)?shù)量在增加，但仍然沒有達(dá)到可以完全抵消油田遞減(每年6-40%)的水平。美國國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量從2020年3月創(chuàng)下的最高紀(jì)錄1310萬桶/天下降了230萬桶/天。
????本周，EIA報告稱，原油日產(chǎn)量溫和下降10萬桶至1090萬桶。報告指出，石油產(chǎn)量的下降發(fā)生在美國本土的48個州，這與頁巖油產(chǎn)量的下降有關(guān)。該機構(gòu)2月的報告預(yù)測，2月份頁巖油田的產(chǎn)量將下降約8.9萬桶/天。
????第四，關(guān)于2021年油價的預(yù)期。
????截止目前，油價持續(xù)上漲的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)已經(jīng)到位。現(xiàn)在必須解決的問題之一是，在定價方面，可以期待什么，以及這一切會以多快的速度發(fā)生?
????高盛最近要求布倫特原油價格在年中達(dá)到每桶65美元。由于近期布倫特原油和WTI原油的價差較窄(2-3.00美元)，這將使WTI原油價格處于每桶60美元的低點。高盛大宗商品研究全球主管杰弗里 柯里(Jeffrey Currie)表示：“隨著疫苗在全球推出，從2021年第二季度開始市場快速收緊的可能性正在上升，因為需求的反彈凸顯了生產(chǎn)商重啟生產(chǎn)的能力。”
????有機構(gòu)認(rèn)為油價達(dá)到每桶65.00美元的水平還要更長的時間。從高盛之前報告的保守基調(diào)來看，這份報告也可能是保守的，這意味著年中會為相關(guān)力量的發(fā)揮提供一些緩沖。主要相關(guān)外部力量是新冠肺炎疫苗的推廣和新感染和住院率的持續(xù)下降。
????在鉆井和水力壓裂開采中，不應(yīng)該預(yù)計WTI的價格會在高盛預(yù)計的那樣，在年中之前持續(xù)穩(wěn)定在每桶60美元以上，因為也有看跌力量在發(fā)揮作用，可能會抑制價格的上漲。
????第五，石油市場的消極因素。
????今年1月初，沙特向石油市場贈送了一份“禮物”，宣布將額外減少每日100萬桶的原油供應(yīng)。隨著油價上漲，歐佩克內(nèi)外都將施加壓力，要求其開始恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)。這也意味著，這一讓上漲的石油市場感到意料之外的妙招，將永遠(yuǎn)是一種過渡舉措。
????因此，隨著油價的上漲，沙特和歐佩克+將從通過限制產(chǎn)量來支撐價格，轉(zhuǎn)向保護(hù)其市場份額不受競爭對手的影響。預(yù)計，這一舉措在不遠(yuǎn)的將來將減緩庫存的下降，從而限制價格在將來的大幅飆升。
????現(xiàn)在，我們將目光聚焦到中國，該國在2020年幾乎是憑一己之力購買了大量石油，支撐了油價。這些廉價原油可能會提供大約3億桶石油的緩沖，以便在油價過快上漲時使用。
????總的來說，看漲的力量多于看跌的力量，原油價格應(yīng)該會繼續(xù)走高。支持這一論點的關(guān)鍵是記錄中的儲油量的下降，以及目前新增石油產(chǎn)量下降到每天1100萬桶以下。如果油價繼續(xù)上漲(預(yù)計這將得益于新冠病毒感染率下降帶來的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇)，油價將別無選擇，只能隨著時間的推移走高。
????王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價
????原文如下：
????How High Will Oil Prices Go This Year?
????This week we hit some milestones in the year-long recovery from the oil demand crash of 2020. West Texas Intermediate, (WTI) hit and moved past the $55.00 level, and Brent moved closer to $60. These are some important psychological barriers for the market, and if sustained, as we expect they will be, will push prices higher.
????What happened?
????The API announced a significant draw of ~4.3 mm barrels in crude stocks yesterday when a modest build was expected. Moves lower in gasoline and distillate stocks bolstered this price move, as it suggested refineries were cranking out product to meet present and anticipated demand.
????In recent weeks oil prices had been resistant to adverse data (inventory builds of crude and refined products) and had continued to inch higher. The market’s relief at this confirmation of demand pushed prices for WTI through that critical $55.00 threshold.
????If the EIA confirms this move today, (these reports are sometimes contradictory), we expect another push higher for both crudes, WTI and Brent. Particularly if the confirmation is of significant proportions, like 8-10 mm barrels. Continued price advances in crude will soon reverse the sluggishness we have seen in the oil equities market. Oil equities prices are typically off 15-20% from recent highs in an apparent disconnect from the recent strength in the underlying data regarding oil.
????Crude stocks are falling into the 5-year range
????Last week’s ~9.9 mm bbl draw moved the supply graph back into the 5-year average for the first time since mid-2020. This removes another psychological barrier for the continued rise in crude prices, as the market will now begin to shift its concern from inventory overhang to worrying about secure supplies. I discussed this in detail in an OilPrice article last month.
????The EIA also noted an increase in refinery throughput for the previous week, which is not something you expect this time of year. That said, we are still off about 2-mm BOPD from a year ago. This increase is bullish for prices as it implies rising demand at the retail level.
????U.S. Production is starting to fall
????Crude oil production thanks to Drilled but Uncompleted, (DUC’s) withdrawal has levitated around 11.0 mm BOEPD for the past month or so. This, in spite of the level of new drilling, (although on the increase), still not being at a level that will totally offset field decline rates, (6-40% per annum). Domestic crude production is down 2.3 mm BOEPD from its all-time high set in March of 2020, at 13.1 mm BOEPD.
????This week the EIA reported a modest decline of 100K BOEPD to 10.9 mm BOEPD. Taking place in the lower 48, as noted by the EIA report, it’s not a stretch to connect this decline to falling shale production. We will have an additional guidepost when the EIA publishes its Drilling Productivity Report, (DPR), the next iteration of which is due February, 16th. Last month’s report forecast a decline from shale fields of ~89K BOEPD in February.
????Looking ahead to the rest of 2021
????The key indicators are in place for a continued increase in oil prices, as we have noted so far. One of the questions we now have to tackle is what can we expect in terms of pricing, and how fast might this happen?
????Goldman Sachs, (NYSE:GS), has recently called for $65 Brent by mid-year. With the narrow spread ($2-3.00) between Brent and WTI in recent times, this would put WTI into the low $60’s. Goldman's global head of commodities research, Jeffrey Currie, said in a note that accompanied the report-
????“With vaccines being rolled out across the world, the likelihood of a fast tightening market from 2Q 2021 is rising as the rebound in demand stresses the ability of producers to restart production."
????The advent of this report moves Goldman’s forecast for the attainment of the $65.00 level by about months. With the conservative tone of previous Goldman reports, it’s likely that this also errs to the conservative side, meaning that mid-year provides them with some cushion for the relevant forces to play out. The chief relevant external force being the roll-out of the Covid vaccine and new infection and hospitalization rates continuing to decline.
????in drilling and fracking taking place we shouldn’t expect sustained pricing over $60 for WTI before Goldman’s estimate of mid-year as there are bearish forces also in play that could put a damper on the rise.
????Key countervailing forces that might dampen the market’s enthusiasm
????The Saudis gave the oil market a gift early in January with the announcement that they were going to withhold another 1-mm BOPD from the market. As prices rise there is going to be pressure internally and externally from OPEC+ to start restoring production. This is baked-in though, meaning that this master-stroke that turned an already rising oil market on its ear, so-to-speak, was always going to be a transition move.
????So with rising oil prices, the chances increase that the Saudis and OPEC+ will shift from supporting prices with restrained production to protecting their market share from competitors.
????That move which we anticipate is not far in the future will act to slow inventory declines, which will keep prices from spiking too sharply in the near future.
????Moving on we have China which almost single-handedly supported oil prices with its massive purchases last year. Estimates vary but China’s buying of cheap crude last year may give them a ~300 mm bbl cushion upon which to draw if prices rise too quickly.
????
????There are more bullish forces at play than bearish in my estimation, and the push higher for crude should continue. The key points supporting that contention are the declines in storage that we have documented here, and the current roll-over in new production to below 11.0 mm BOEPD. If those continue, as we expect they will thanks to a recovery led by declines in new Covid infection rates, crude has no alternative to going higher as the year advances.
