據(jù)今日石油2021年6月18日報道，圭亞那的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計到2025年前將超過80萬桶。專家們表示，在需求增長、供應(yīng)減少的情況下，圭亞那有望成為創(chuàng)造全球石油市場平衡的關(guān)鍵產(chǎn)油國。

　　6月17日，美國石油學(xué)會(API)首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家迪安·福爾曼博士在當(dāng)?shù)厣虡I(yè)發(fā)展中心(CLBD)主辦的網(wǎng)絡(luò)研討會上表示，在新冠肺炎疫情大流行席卷全球期間，世界各地的經(jīng)濟體紛紛關(guān)閉，嚴(yán)重影響了石油行業(yè)。他表示，由于石油行業(yè)仍在努力恢復(fù)，全球石油需求持續(xù)反彈，可能在2022年及以后達到新的高點。

　　《經(jīng)濟學(xué)人》指出，根據(jù)研究，2021年第一季度全球油氣行業(yè)的投資為380億美元，低于2019年每季度650億美元的水平。盡管預(yù)計歐佩克+和美國的原油供應(yīng)將增加，但美國能源信息署(EIA)預(yù)計，今年全球石油需求可能繼續(xù)超過供應(yīng)。這可能導(dǎo)致油價在2022年上漲到60美元/桶左右。

　　然而，福爾曼博士說，隨著圭亞那提高原油產(chǎn)量，該國將從原油出口中顯著受益。

　　福爾曼博士表示，“圭亞那有機會隨時隨地直接進入全球石油市場。圭亞那來的正是時候，因為全球石油市場需要這些原油。全球?qū)鐏喣窃偷男枨笳趶?fù)蘇，而圭亞那有能力生產(chǎn)中等重量、中等比重、相對較輕的低硫原油，這將有助于歐洲、北美和亞洲的煉油廠。”“所以，圭亞那原油有廣泛的吸引力，這似乎是一個機會，對圭亞那來說，如果它能繼續(xù)沿著可持續(xù)的道路，繼續(xù)通過發(fā)現(xiàn)更多的石油來刺激進一步的原油產(chǎn)量增長。所以，隨著這一進展，預(yù)計這是圭亞那的一個巨大的機會。”

　　當(dāng)埃克森美孚公司在斯塔布魯克區(qū)塊的Yellowtail開發(fā)項目在2025年投產(chǎn)時，麗莎大油田一期開發(fā)項目的石油日產(chǎn)量將達到12萬桶，Liza二期的日產(chǎn)量將為22萬桶，而帕拉亞大油田的日產(chǎn)量將為22萬桶。

　　福爾曼博士指出，除了創(chuàng)造全球平衡之外，圭亞那還將受益于轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展，如果管理得當(dāng)，圭亞那將從原油出口中獲得豐厚收入。

　　李峻 編譯自 油價網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Guyana can become key player on global oil market with increased production – API’s Chief Economist

　　With Guyana expected to produce more than 800,000 barrels of oil per day by 2025, experts say that the country can become a key producer in creating global oil market balance as the demand grows and supply shrinks.

　　Chief Economist at the American Petroleum Institute (API), Dr. Dean Foreman, during a webinar hosted by the Centre for Local Business Development (CLBD) on Thursday, said the shutdown of economies around the world during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, drastically affected the oil sector. With the sector still trying to recover, he said that the global oil demand has continued to rebound and could reach new heights in 2022 and beyond.

　　The Economist noted that based on studies, the first quarter of 2021 has seen a lowly US$38B investment in the global oil and gas sector when compared to $65B per quarter in 2019. Despite the projected OPEC+ and United States supply increases, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that global oil demand could continue to exceed supply through 2021. This can lead to the rise of oil prices to about US$60 per barrel in 2022.

　　However, with Guyana ramping up its production, Dr. Foreman said the country stands to significantly benefit from this.

　　“Guyana has an opportunity to plug and play directly into the global oil market. Guyana is coming at a perfect time where there is a need for these barrels. There is a recovering global demand on the economy [and Guyana has] the ability with a medium weight, medium gravity, relatively light sweet crude oil, which will help refiners in Europe, North America and Asia,” he said. “So, you have broad appeal, and it seems like it is an opportunity for the nation if it can continue to stay on a sustainable path to continue to incentivise further growth with the additional oil finds…So, with this progress, you expect that it is a tremendous opportunity.”

　　When ExxonMobil’s Yellowtail Development Project at the Stabroek Block comes on stream in 2025, it will add 250,000 bpd to the 120,000 bpd from Liza Phase 1, 220,000 bpd from Phase 2 of the Liza Development and 220,000 bpd from Payara.

　　Dr. Foreman noted that in addition to creating a global balance, Guyana stands to benefit from transformation development with the revenues it will earn, if it is prudently managed.