據管道&天然氣雜志網8月6日報道，據美國能源安全分析公司ESAI 能源稱，液化天然氣(NGL)的“需求增長峰值”時代將在2025 年結束。

　　根據ESAI能源最新發布的《全球NGL 5年展望》顯示，2021-2025年期間，亞洲液化石油氣(LPG)進口需求每年將增長不到10萬桶/天，全球市場將回到過剩狀態。

　　據ESAI預測，中國和印度的發展將減緩亞洲兩大液化石油氣市場的進口增長。

　　另外，ESAI能源認為，由于美國對新乙烷裂解裝置的投資相對不足，2023年后對美國乙烷的需求將減速。雖然2021年海外裂解裝置的交付量出現了創紀錄的增長，但出口增長將放緩。因此，全球對美國乙烷的需求增長將放緩。

　　ESAI能源負責人Andrew Reed表示，對液化石油氣和乙烷的需求增長都將放緩。鑒于該NGL基本面通常是由供應決定的，令人驚訝的是，我們并不認為供應危機會導致乙烷或液化石油氣的價格超出石化原料的價格。相反，在一年左右的時間，我們預計液化石油氣市場將重新出現過剩。

　　郝芬 譯自 管道&天然氣雜志網

　　原文如下:

　　ESAI: Era of Peak Demand Growth for NGLs' Nears End

　　NGLs’ era of “peak demand growth” will come to an end by 2025 according to ESAI Energy.

　　Between 2021 and 2025, Asia’s liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) import requirement will grow less than 100,000 b/d annually and the global market will flip back to surplus, according to ESAI Energy’s newly published Global NGL 5-Year Outlook.

　　Developments in both China and India will slow the growth of imports to Asia’s two biggest LPG markets, ESAI projects.

　　Separately, ESAI Energy submits that demand for US ethane will decelerate after 2023 due to a relative lack of investment in new ethane crackers in the US. While 2021 is seeing a record increase in deliveries to overseas crackers, export growth will moderate. Consequently, global demand for US ethane will grow at a slowing pace.

　　“Demand growth for both LPG and ethane will slow,” explains ESAI Energy Principal Andrew Reed. “Given that the NGL fundamentals are usually shaped by supply, it is striking that we do not foresee a supply crunch that would price ethane or LPG out of the petchem feed slate. To the contrary, in a year or so we anticipate the LPG market flipping back to surplus.