據鉆機地帶6月13日報道，近日，全球研究和咨詢公司伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）表示，到2050年，全球煉油行業的低碳氫需求可能達到5000萬噸/年。

煉油領域是氫能應用最大的市場之一，2020年約占3200萬噸/年，占全球氫需求的30%～35%。氫處理和氫裂解化是煉油行業消耗超90%氫氣的主要煉油工藝，分別用于減少成品中的硫含量和提高運輸燃料的產量。

然而，煉油過程中65%以上的氫需求是由催化重整和乙烯裂解副產品提供的氫來滿足；這不太可能被低碳氫氣所取代。任何氫短缺都可以通過氣基蒸汽甲烷重整和煤炭目的性生產來解決，這兩種方式合計約占煉油廠氫需求的32%。

伍德麥肯茲研究總監古普塔表示，如果低碳氫具有成本競爭力，并且隨著時間的推移政策支持不斷發展，低碳氫有可能取代專用氫作為原料。到2050年，該領域低碳氫的潛在全球市場規模可能達到1000萬噸/年，從而使全球范圍1和范圍2的煉油廠碳排放量減少10%或1億噸/年。他補充道，但真正的改變者是在燃燒應用中替代化石燃料來產生熱量和蒸汽。這將為煉油中的低碳氫提供更大的市場，到2050年，潛在市場規模將達到4000萬噸/年，碳排放量減少高達3億噸/年，約25%。因此，到2050年，煉油行業對低碳氫的潛在總需求可能高達5000萬噸/年。

為了進一步脫碳，煉油商將不得不考慮更多的低碳技術，如電加熱、碳、主要碳排放設施的捕獲和存儲以及生物質氣化。煉油企業將不得不采用可再生能源，使用低碳原料和產品。這些解決方案的組合需要解決這個復雜的問題。

為了使低碳氫與專用的化石燃料氫具有競爭力，需要降低成本和高碳價。成本很重要，因為氫氣生產占煉油廠可變運營成本的10%～25%。此外，高碳價和相關的排放懲罰可能成為從化石燃料氫轉向低碳氫的主要驅動力。

在當前天然氣/液化天然氣價格居高不下且波動劇烈的情況下，以及地緣政治沖突之后，綠色氫比基于化石燃料的灰色氫便宜。因此，有市場機會使氫供應來源多樣化，以減少排放并支持能源安全。

在燃燒應用的情況下，更高的熱值和更低的排放使低碳氫成為有吸引力的替代品。盡管燃燒提供了更大的市場，但低碳氫需要實現更低的成本，或者需要更高的碳價格才能在燃燒領域競爭，而不是與專用氫競爭。

假設大宗商品價格恢復到受長期基本面因素驅動的水平，到本世紀30年代初，要使低碳氫在煉油燃燒領域具有競爭力，需要將碳價格提高到100美元/噸至150美元/噸。另外，從長遠來看，綠色氫的成本必須低于每公斤1.5美元，才能與天然氣和燃油的燃燒相競爭。

除了低碳氫的成本下降，更高的碳價格、財政激勵和更有力的政策支持將是加速煉油行業采用的必要條件。國家專門的氫規劃將有助于提高低碳氫在許多行業的滲透率。

Gupta表示，從成本和排放的角度來看，從長遠來看，煉油更可能向綠色氫而非藍色氫邁進。然而，擁有低成本天然氣資源和碳封存能力的國家將有機會進入藍色氫氣市場。低碳氫的替代經濟很大程度上依賴于煤炭、天然氣、碳和可再生能源的價格，因此煉油廠和國家的具體應用場景要非常具體。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Low-Carbon Hydrogen Demand Could Reach 50 Mtpa By 2050

Potential low-carbon hydrogen demand from the global refining sector could reach 50 million tons per annum by 2050, says global research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie.

Oil refining is one of the largest markets for hydrogen, accounting for about 32 Mtpa or 30-35% of global hydrogen demand in 2020. Hydrotreating and hydrocracking are the major refinery processes consuming over 90% of hydrogen in the refining sector, and they are used to reduce sulfur from finished products, and to increase yield of transport fuels, respectively.

However, more than 65% of hydrogen demand in refining is met by hydrogen supplied as a by-product from catalytic reformers and ethylene crackers; this is unlikely to be replaced by low-carbon hydrogen. Any hydrogen shortfall is met by on-purpose production from gas-based steam methane reforming and coal, together accounting for about 32% of refinery hydrogen demand. 

“Low-carbon hydrogen has the potential to replace on-purpose hydrogen as a feedstock if low-carbon hydrogen becomes cost competitive and policy support develops over time. Potential global market size for low-carbon hydrogen in this segment could be up to 10 Mtpa by 2050 delivering a 10% or 100 Mtpa reduction in overall scope 1 and 2 global refinery carbon emissions,” Wood Mackenzie research director Sushant Gupta said.

“But the real game-changer is in replacing fossil fuels in combustion applications to generate heat and steam. This will provide a larger market for low-carbon hydrogen in refining with potential market size reaching up to 40 Mtpa by 2050, and up to 300 Mtpa or about 25% reduction in carbon emissions. As such, total potential demand for low-carbon hydrogen in refining could be up to 50 Mtpa by 2050,” he added.

For further decarbonization, refiners will have to consider additional low-carbon technologies such as electric heating, carbon, capture and storage on main carbon emitting units and biomass gasification. Refiners will have to deploy renewable power and use low-carbon feedstocks and products. A combination of these solutions is required to solve this complex problem. 

Both lower costs and high carbon prices are needed to make low-carbon hydrogen competitive to on-purpose fossil fuel-based hydrogen. Cost is important because hydrogen production is responsible for between 10% and 25% of refiners’ variable opex. In addition, a high carbon price and related emissions penalty could become the main driver of shifting away from fossil fuel-based hydrogen to low-carbon hydrogen.

At current high and volatile gas/LNG prices and in the aftermath of the war, green hydrogen is cheaper than fossil fuel-based grey hydrogen. So, there is market opportunity to diversify hydrogen supply sources to reduce emissions and support energy security.

In the case of combustion applications, higher heating value and lower emissions make low-carbon hydrogen an attractive alternative. Although combustion provides a bigger market, low-carbon hydrogen needs to achieve a much lower cost, or a much higher carbon price is needed to compete in the combustion sector than that required to compete with on-purpose hydrogen.

A much higher carbon price of $100/t to $150/t would be required in the early 2030s to make low-carbon hydrogen compete in the refinery combustion sector, assuming commodity prices return to levels driven by long-term fundamentals. Alternatively, green hydrogen cost must be sub-$1.50 per kilogram to compete with gas and fuel oil combustion in the longer term.

“In addition to falling costs for low-carbon hydrogen, higher carbon prices, financial incentives and stronger policy support will be necessary to accelerate adoption by the refining sector. Dedicated country hydrogen roadmaps will help grow low-carbon hydrogen’s penetration across many sectors. 

“From costs and emissions perspective, a leap towards green hydrogen rather than blue is more likely in refining in the longer term. However, countries with low-cost gas resources and CO2 sequestration capacity will have the opportunity to enter the blue hydrogen market. Replacement economics for low-carbon hydrogen is hugely dependent upon coal, gas, carbon, and renewable power prices and hence, very refinery site and country specific,” Gupta said.