據(jù)美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站報(bào)道，氫氣在世界能源系統(tǒng)的脫碳過(guò)程中起著至關(guān)重要的作用，但氫氣攝取速度太慢。獨(dú)立能源咨詢和認(rèn)證機(jī)構(gòu)挪威船級(jí)社DNV在6月14日發(fā)表的一份最新報(bào)告稱，各國(guó)政府需要采取緊急、重大的政策干預(yù)措施。 

DNV在題為《2050年氫氣預(yù)測(cè)》報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，2030年氫氣在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的占比僅為0.5%，到2050年將占5%。 然而，要實(shí)現(xiàn)《巴黎協(xié)定》的目標(biāo)，到本世紀(jì)中葉，氫氣攝取量需要增加兩倍，才能滿足15%的能源需求。

DNV集團(tuán)總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官埃里克森表示：“對(duì)于航空、航海和高溫制造業(yè)等無(wú)法電氣化的行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)，氫氣是必不可少的，因此應(yīng)該優(yōu)先考慮這些行業(yè)。” “現(xiàn)行政策與氫氣的重要性不符。他們還需要支持可再生能源發(fā)電和碳捕獲和存儲(chǔ)的規(guī)模，這是生產(chǎn)低碳?xì)錃獾年P(guān)鍵要素。” 

根據(jù)《2050年氫氣預(yù)測(cè)》，到本世紀(jì)中葉，以電力為基礎(chǔ)的綠色氫氣（利用電解槽將氫從水中分離出來(lái)）將成為主要的生產(chǎn)形式，占總產(chǎn)量的72%。這將需要過(guò)剩的可再生電力來(lái)驅(qū)動(dòng)一個(gè)容量為3100吉瓦的電解槽。這是目前太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能總裝機(jī)容量的兩倍多。  

藍(lán)氫是一種從天然氣中提取并捕獲碳排放的物質(zhì)，它在短期內(nèi)將發(fā)揮更大的作用(到2030年約占總產(chǎn)量的30%)，但由于可再生能源產(chǎn)能的增加和價(jià)格的下降，其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力將下降。

根據(jù)DNV的預(yù)測(cè)，從現(xiàn)在到2050年，全球用于能源目的的氫氣生產(chǎn)支出將達(dá)到6.8萬(wàn)億美元，另外還有1800億美元用于氫氣管道，5300億美元用于建造和運(yùn)營(yíng)氨氣終端。  

考慮到成本因素，全球超過(guò)50%的氫氣管道將從天然氣管道改造而來(lái)，因?yàn)楦脑旃艿赖某杀绢A(yù)計(jì)僅占新建設(shè)成本的10%～35%。 氫氣將通過(guò)管道在國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)家之間進(jìn)行中等距離輸送，但在各大陸之間穿行仍為難題。全球氫氣貿(mào)易也將受到船舶運(yùn)輸液化氫氣的高成本和氫氣能量密度低特性的限制。氫氣的衍生物氨氣能夠更穩(wěn)定，可以更容易通過(guò)船舶運(yùn)輸，將在全球進(jìn)行交易。 

早期氫氣的攝取將由難以減弱的高溫生產(chǎn)過(guò)程主導(dǎo)，例如目前使用煤和天然氣的鋼鐵生產(chǎn)。氨氣和甲醇等氫氣衍生物是船舶和航空等重型運(yùn)輸工具脫碳的關(guān)鍵，但根據(jù)DNV的預(yù)測(cè)，這些燃料要到21世紀(jì)30年代才會(huì)規(guī)模化。

氫氣不會(huì)在乘用車(chē)上得到普及，在發(fā)電上的普及也很有限。用于建筑物供暖的氫氣不會(huì)在全球范圍內(nèi)普及，但會(huì)在一些已經(jīng)擁有廣泛天然氣基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的地區(qū)看到早期的普及。 

“擴(kuò)大氫價(jià)值鏈將需要管理安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和公眾接受度，以及就業(yè)政策，以使氫氣項(xiàng)目具有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和可獲利。我們需要在能源系統(tǒng)層面進(jìn)行規(guī)劃，使社會(huì)能夠擁抱氫氣帶來(lái)的緊急脫碳機(jī)會(huì)。”埃里克森補(bǔ)充說(shuō)。  

不同地區(qū)對(duì)氫氣的攝取有很大差異，政策影響很大。到2050年，歐洲將率先實(shí)現(xiàn)氫氣在能源結(jié)構(gòu)中的占比達(dá)到11%，因?yàn)橄嚓P(guān)政策既啟動(dòng)了氫氣生產(chǎn)的規(guī)模，又刺激了終端使用。

經(jīng)合組織太平洋地區(qū)（2050年氫能源占能源結(jié)構(gòu)的8%）和北美地區(qū)（7%）也有推動(dòng)供應(yīng)端的戰(zhàn)略、目標(biāo)和資金，但碳價(jià)格較低，具體目標(biāo)和政策較少。大中華區(qū)（6%）緊隨其后，最近對(duì)到 2035年的資金和氫氣前景做出了更清晰的說(shuō)明，同時(shí)擴(kuò)大了全國(guó)排放交易計(jì)劃。到2050年，這四個(gè)地區(qū)總共將消耗全球用于能源目的氫氣需求的三分之二。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)鉆井網(wǎng)站

原文如下：

Hydrogen Could Be A Missed Opportunity Of The Energy Transition

Hydrogen has a crucial role in decarbonizing the world’s energy system, but uptake will be too slow. Governments need to make urgent, significant policy interventions, according to a new report by DNV.

In Hydrogen Forecast to 2050, DNV predicts the amount of hydrogen in the energy mix will be only 0.5% in 2030 and 5% in 2050. However, to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement, hydrogen uptake would need to triple to meet 15% of energy demand by mid-century.

“Hydrogen is essential to decarbonize sectors that cannot be electrified, like aviation, maritime, and high-heat manufacturing, and should therefore be prioritized for these sectors,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV. “Policies do not match hydrogen’s importance. They will also need to support the scaling of renewable energy generation and carbon capture and storage as crucial elements in producing low-carbon hydrogen.”

According to Hydrogen Forecast by 2050, electricity-based green hydrogen – produced by splitting hydrogen from water using electrolyzers – will be the dominant form of production by the middle of the century, accounting for 72% of output. This will require a surplus of renewable energy, to power an electrolyzer capacity of 3,100 gigawatts. This is more than twice the total installed generation capacity of solar and wind today.

Blue hydrogen – produced from natural gas with emissions captured – has a greater role to play in the shorter term (around 30% of total production in 2030), but its competitiveness will reduce as renewable energy capacity increases and prices drop.

Global spending on producing hydrogen for energy purposes from now until 2050 will be $6.8 trillion, with an additional $180 billion spent on hydrogen pipelines and $530 billion on building and operating ammonia terminals, according to DNV’s forecasts.

Cost considerations will lead to more than 50% of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed from natural gas pipelines, as the cost to repurpose pipelines is expected to be just 10-35% of new construction costs. Hydrogen will be transported by pipelines up to medium distances within and between countries, but not between continents. Global hydrogen trade will also be limited by the high cost of liquefying hydrogen for ship transport and the low energy density of hydrogen. The hydrogen derivative ammonia, which is more stable and can be more readily transported by ship, will be traded globally.

Early uptake of hydrogen will be led by hard-to-abate, high-heat manufacturing processes such as iron and steel production which currently use coal and natural gas. Hydrogen derivatives, such as ammonia and methanol, are key to decarbonizing heavy transport like shipping and aviation, but these fuels won’t scale until the 2030s according to DNV’s forecasts.

Hydrogen will not see an uptake in passenger vehicles, and only limited uptake in power generation. Hydrogen for heating buildings will not scale globally but will see early uptake in some regions that already have an extensive gas infrastructure.

“Scaling hydrogen value chains will require managing safety risk and public acceptance, as well as employment policies to make hydrogen projects competitive and bankable. We need to plan at the level of energy systems, enabling societies to embrace the urgent decarbonization opportunities presented by hydrogen,” added Eriksen.

The uptake of hydrogen will differ significantly by region, heavily influenced by policy. Europe is the forerunner with hydrogen set to take 11% of the energy mix by 2050, as enabling policies both kickstart the scaling of hydrogen production and stimulate end-use.

OECD Pacific (hydrogen 8% of the energy mix in 2050) and North America (7%) regions also have strategies, targets, and funding pushing the supply-side, but have lower carbon prices and less concrete targets and policies. Greater China (6%) follows on, recently providing more clarity on funding and hydrogen prospects towards 2035, coupled with an expanding national emissions trading scheme. These four regions will together consume two-thirds of global hydrogen demand for energy purposes by 2050.