據油氣新聞網7月7日報道，根據國際可再生能源機構（IRENA）在其新的報告系列中表示，為了使氫貿易具有成本效益，生產和交易綠色氫的成本必須低于國內生產，以抵消更高的運輸成本。

氫貿易可以促進更多樣化和更有彈性的能源系統，使各國經濟脫碳，造福于生產者和消費者。

“全球氫貿易以滿足1.5℃的氣候目標”表明未來的氫貿易可能具有重大意義。隨著項目規模的進展和技術的成熟，貿易使人們能夠開發出廉價的氫氣。據報告稱，全球四分之一的綠色氫需求可以通過管道和船舶進行國際貿易來滿足。

隨著可再生能源成本的下降和全球氫潛力超過全球能源需求的20倍，到2050年，全球四分之三的氫仍將在當地生產和使用。

這與當今石油市場的大宗國際交易相比是一個重大變化，但與天然氣市場的三分之一是跨境交易類似。Irena表示，與今天的石油和天然氣市場相比，氫市場和貿易路線可能更加多樣化、地區性，利潤也不那么豐厚。

Irena總干事Francesco La Camera表示，獲得充足的可再生能源不足以贏得氫競爭，發展氫貿易也是必要的。

他指出，誠然，氫貿易可以為各國從脫碳工業到供應多樣化和提高能源安全提供多種機會。今天的能源進口國也可以成為未來的出口國。

La Camera補充道，但政府必須做出重大努力，將貿易愿望變成現實。創新、政策支持和擴大規模可以帶來必要的成本降低，并創造一個全球氫市場。能否實現貿易潛力將在很大程度上取決于各國的政策和投資重點，以及他們自己能源系統脫碳的能力。

Irena的《世界能源轉型展望》認為，到2050年，氫將覆蓋全球12%的能源需求，減少10%的二氧化碳排放。

然而，只有在生產氫氣所需的電力與能源系統的電氣化并舉的情況下，氫氣才能成為一個可行的氣候解決方案，這使得更大程度上利用可再生能源成為轉型的核心。如果成本下降，到2050年，每公斤1美元以下的綠色氫將滿足世界能源需求的10倍。

據新的報告顯示，到2050年，一半的氫將通過主要現有的、重新利用的天然氣管道進行交易，這將大大降低運輸成本。到2050年，成本約為每1000公里每公斤0.10美元，這將是3000公里以下最具成本效益的選擇。

相比之下，通過新管道的運輸成本將是原來的兩倍。這仍低于以綠色氨的形式運輸超過3000公里-5000公里，其占全球氫貿易的一半。根據分析，氨運輸將成為洲際氫貿易的主導形式。

據Irena稱，未來通過管道進行的貿易將集中在兩個區域市場，分別是占全球85%的歐洲和占全球15%的拉丁美洲。歐洲的主要貿易伙伴將是北非和中東，而澳大利亞主要供應亞洲。

新的貿易市場將使能源參與者發揮不同的作用。2050年，一些最大的潛在管道氫出口國是智利、北非和西班牙，它們幾乎占據了管道貿易市場的四分之三。像亞洲大國和美國這樣的主要消費國能夠在國內生產大部分氫。

其補充道，非洲、澳大利亞和北美占全球出口的四分之三。在進口方面，日本、韓國和歐盟預計將通過進口來滿足它們的大部分氫氣需求。

郝芬 譯自 油氣新聞網

原文如下:

A quarter of global hydrogen set for trading by 2050, says IRENA

To make the trade of hydrogen cost-effective, the costs of producing and trading green hydrogen must be lower than domestic production to offset higher transport cost, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) said in its new report series. 

Hydrogen trade can contribute to a more diversified and resilient energy system, allowing countries to decarbonise their economies to the benefit of producers and consumers.  

‘Global hydrogen trade to meet the 1.5°C climate goal’ finds that future hydrogen trade can be significant. Trade allows to tap into affordable hydrogen as scale of projects progresses and technology matures. One-quarter of the global green hydrogen demand could be satisfied with international trade through pipelines and ships, according to the reports. 

With the costs of renewables falling and the global hydrogen potential exceeding global energy demand 20-fold times, three-quarters of the global hydrogen would still be produced and used locally in 2050. 

This is a significant change from today’s oil market where the bulk is internationally traded, but it is similar to gas where one third is traded across borders. Hydrogen markets and trade routes are likely to be more diverse, regional and less lucrative than today’s oil and gas markets, sdtated Irena.

"Having access to abundant renewables will not be enough to win the hydrogen race, it’s also necessary to develop hydrogen trade," Irena’s Director-General Francesco La Camera said. 

“It is true that hydrogen trade can offer multiple opportunities for countries from decarbonising industry to diversifying supplies and improving energy security. Today’s energy importers can also become the exporters of the future,” he noted.

“But governments must make significant efforts to turn trade aspirations into reality”, La Camera added. “A mix of innovation, policy support and scaling up can bring the necessary cost reduction and create a global hydrogen market. Whether trade potentials can be realised will strongly depend on countries’ policies and investment priorities and the ability to decarbonise their own energy systems,” he added.

Irena’s World Energy Transitions Outlook sees hydrogen covering 12 per cent of global energy demand and cutting 10 per cent of CO2 emissions by 2050. 

Yet, hydrogen can only be a viable climate solution if the power needed to produce it comes in addition to the electrification of the energy system, placing an even greater uptake of renewable power at the heart of the transition. If costs come down, green hydrogen below $1 per kilogram (kg) would be available to meet ten times the world’s energy demand in 2050.

The new reports see half of the hydrogen in 2050 being traded through largely existing, repurposed gas pipelines drastically reducing the costs of transport. With costs of around USD 0.10/kg per 1 000 kilometres (km) in 2050, it would be the most cost-effective option for less than 3000 km distances. 

By contrast, transportation through new pipelines would cost twice as much. This is still less than shipping it in the form of green ammonia over 3 000–5 000 km, the other half of global hydrogen trade. Ammonia shipping will become the dominant form of intercontinental hydrogen trade, according to the analysis.

According to Irena, this future pipeline-enabled trade would be concentrated in two regional markets namely Europe with the vast majority of 85 per cent of the hydrogen trade and Latin America with 15 per cent. Europe’s main trading partners would be North Africa and the Middle East while Australia could mainly supply Asia.

New trade markets would lead to different roles for energy players. Some of the largest potential exporters of hydrogen by pipeline in 2050 are Chile, North Africa and Spain, representing almost three-quarters of the pipeline trade market. Major consumers like big country in Asia and USA are able to produce most of their hydrogen domestically.

Africa, Australia and North America, account for three-quarters of the global exports. On the importing side, Japan, South Korea and the European Union are expected to satisfy a large share of their hydrogen demand through imports, it added.