據美國鉆井網站2022年7月8日報道，惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業研究公司7月8日發布了其最新的油價展望報告，惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業研究公司分析師們預計油價下行風險將持續到2026年。  

根據惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業研究公司的最新預測，布倫特原油的平均價格在2022年為105美元/桶，2023年為100美元/桶，2024年和2025年為88美元/桶，2026年為85美元/桶。

惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業研究公司分析師們在一份發給美國鉆井網站的報告中表示：“我們本月上調了布倫特原油價格預測。”

分析師們補充說，“我們現在預測，2022年布倫特原油均價將從之前的每桶100美元升至105美元。對于2023年，我們將預測從每桶90美元上調至每桶100美元。這一修正反映出第二季度的強勁價格表現，以及對全球石油市場緊張程度和持續程度高于我們此前的預期。” 

分析師們表示，戰略石油儲備的協同釋放有助于改善市場供應，但產量仍然受到嚴重限制，協調釋放計劃只持續到今年年底。

此外，分析師們表示，歐佩克+繼續遠遠低于其月度產量目標，“同時人們質疑，持有全球大部分備用產能的沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋是否有能力在近期大幅提高原油產量”。  

分析師們在報告中表示：“盡管我們認為備用產能是存在的，但歐佩克+協議的限制以及沙特阿拉伯不愿耗盡其備用產能，這將限制今年下半年的原油產量上升。”

分析師們在報告中指出：“盡管供應方面的驅動因素非常樂觀，但需求方面的驅動因素則更為復雜。”

分析師們說：“我們目前預計，在疫情期間失去的需求正在恢復的支持下，今年和明年的消費將強勁增長，分別為2.3%和3.0%。然而，隨著能源成本上升和更廣泛的生活成本危機威脅消費，這一預測的風險嚴重偏向于下行。” 

“此外，經濟正面臨重大逆風，表現為持續的通脹壓力和金融環境收緊，金融市場波動加劇，不斷惡化的社會動蕩以及經濟增長放緩，加大了衰退的風險。”分析師們如是說。

惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業研究公司參與的彭博共識預測，今年布倫特原油平均價格為100美元/桶，2023年為91美元/桶，2024年為85美元/桶，2025年為72.5美元/桶，2026年為78美元/桶。  

除了看到今年布倫特原油平均價格為100美元/桶和2023年布倫特平均價格為91美元/桶之外，惠譽解決方案國家風險與行業研究公司之前6月2日發送給美國鉆井網站的油價展望報告中，看到2024年布倫特原油平均價格為85美元/桶，以及2025年和2026年布倫特原油平均價格達到88美元/桶。

在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油價格為每桶104.25美元。今年以來，布倫特原油價格曾數次突破每桶120美元，但已從7月1日的111.63美元/桶跌至7月6日的100.69美元/桶。 

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Where Is Oil Heading Next?

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has released its latest oil price outlook, which outlines where the company sees the commodity going through to 2026.

According to its latest forecast, Fitch Solutions now expects the Brent crude oil price to average $105 per barrel in 2022, $100 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026.

“We have made an upward revision to our Brent crude price forecast this month,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone.

“We now forecast Brent to average $105 per barrel in 2022, up from $100 per barrel previously. For 2023, we have revised up the forecast from $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel. The revision reflects a strong price performance over Q2 and expectation of greater and more persistent tightness in the global oil market than we had previously anticipated,” the analysts added.

The analysts stated that coordinated releases of strategic petroleum reserves are helping improve market supply but added that production remains heavily constrained and coordinated releases are planned only until the end of this year.

In addition, the analysts said OPEC+ continues to fall far short of its monthly production targets, “while questions are being asked as the ability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which hold the bulk of global spare capacity, to significantly raise production in the near term”.

“Although we believe the capacity is there, the constraints of the OPEC+ deal and Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to run down its spare capacity will limit the upside to output in H2,” the analysts stated in the report.

“While supply-side drivers are firmly bullish, the demand side is more mixed,” the analysts noted in the report.

“We are currently forecasting strong consumption growth in 2022 and 2023, at 2.3 percent and 3.0 percent, respectively, supported by the ongoing recovery of demand lost during the pandemic. However, the risks to this forecast are skewed heavily to the downside, as higher energy costs and a broader cost-of-living crisis threaten consumption,” the analysts added.

“Moreover, the economy is facing major headwinds in the form of persistent inflationary pressure and tightening financial conditions, heightened financial market volatility, rising social unrest and slowing growth, raising the risk of recession,” the analysts continued.

The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, sees the Brent crude oil price averaging $100 per barrel in 2022, $91 per barrel in 2023, $85 per barrel in 2024, $72.5 per barrel in 2025, and $78 per barrel in 2026.

In addition to seeing the 2022 Brent price averaging $100 per barrel and the 2023 Brent price averaging $90 per barrel, Fitch Solutions’ previous oil price outlook, which was sent to Rigzone on June 2, saw the 2024 Brent price averaging $85 per barrel, and the 2025 and 2026 average Brent price hitting $88 per barrel.

At the time of writing, the price of Brent is trading at $104.25 per barrel. Brent has closed above $120 per barrel on several occasions this year but dropped from $111.63 per barrel on July 1 to $100.69 per barrel on July 6.