國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：中東主要石油出口國到2026年前預計將從石油出口中獲得1.3萬億美元的額外收入  

高油價和持續的市場動蕩是高收益背后的驅動因素 

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）：石油和天然氣出口國應該利用意外收入投資能源轉型

據美國油價網8月19日報道，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預測，到2026年前，中東主要石油出口國將因高油價和地緣政治沖突爆發后全球石油市場動蕩獲得1.3萬億美元額外石油出口收入。

IMF中東和北非主管杰哈德?阿祖爾本周對英國《金融時報》表示，海灣國家“到2026年累計石油出口額外收入將增加1.3萬億美元”。  

IMF專家說，石油收入的滾滾財源將充實中東主要石油出口國的大型主權財富基金的金庫。

不過，阿祖爾警告說，海灣地區的主要石油和天然氣出口國應該利用這筆意外之財在未來進行投資，包括為能源轉型做準備。 

IMF本周早些時候說，與美國和歐洲許多經濟體不同的是，由于油價的上漲和石油產量的增加，中東和世界最大的石油出口國沙特阿拉伯將成為今年全球經濟增長最快的經濟體之一。美國和歐洲許多經濟體認為經濟增長將放緩，并可能在冬季一到就陷入衰退。

由于全面的利商改革、油價大幅上漲以及生產能力從疫情引發的衰退中復蘇，沙特阿拉伯今年可能成為全球經濟增長最快的經濟體之一。國內生產總值預計將增長7.6%，這將是近10年來最快的增長。 

阿祖爾說：“以可持續的方式管理石油收入，這樣支出就不會隨著油價的漲跌而上升和下降，這將促進財政的可持續性，并防止回到以前由石油驅動的繁榮和蕭條周期。具有遠見的預算規劃和使經濟多樣化的政策也會起到同樣的作用。”

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

Middle East Producers Expect To Bank Additional $1.3 Trillion From Oil Exports

·     IMF: The major oil exporting countries in the Middle East are expected to receive an additional $1.3 trillion from oil by 2026.

·     Higher oil prices and ongoing market turmoil are the driving factors behind higher earnings.

·     IMF: Oil and gas exports should use windfall to invest in energy transition.

The major oil exporting countries in the Middle East are expected to receive an additional $1.3 trillion from oil by 2026, thanks to high oil prices and the global oil market turmoil after the war, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The Gulf states in particular are set for “additional cumulative oil revenues of $1.3tn through 2026,” Jihad Azour, IMF director for the Middle East and North Africa, told the Financial Times this week.

According to IMF experts, the oil revenue bonanza will bolster the coffers of the large sovereign wealth funds of the major exporters in the Middle East.

However, Azour cautioned that the Gulf oil and gas exporters should use the windfall to invest in the future, including in preparation for the energy transition.

Unlike the U.S. and many economies in Europe, which see slowing growth and could tip into recession as soon as the winter comes, the economy of the largest oil exporter in the Middle East and the world, Saudi Arabia, is set for one of the fastest growth rates this year with the jump in oil prices and higher oil production, the IMF said earlier this week.

“Saudi Arabia is likely to be one of the world’s fastest-growing economies this year as sweeping pro-business reforms and a sharp rise in oil prices and production power recovery from a pandemic-induced recession in 2020. Gross domestic product is expected to expand by 7.6 percent, the fastest growth in almost a decade,” the IMF said.

“Managing oil revenues in a sustainable manner, so that spending does not rise and fall in line with the price of oil, would promote fiscal sustainability and prevent a return to previous oil-driven cycles of boom and bust. So too would far-sighted budget planning and policies to diversify the economy,” the IMF noted.