據美國鉆井網站2022年9月21日報道，說“美國天然氣市場經歷了旋風式的一年”是一種輕描淡寫的說法，但隨著冬季的到來，美國天然氣市場大起大落的走勢仍遠未結束。

這是挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）分析師阿德·艾倫在周二發給美國鉆井網站的一份市場報告中所述，他補充說，預計高氣價將持續一段時間。

艾倫在報告中表示：“市場參與者被迫調整策略，以應對不斷上升的需求、地緣政治復雜性和供應瓶頸。”

艾倫補充道，美國向歐洲出口液化天然氣（LNG）的重要性正在進一步增加，這是目前困擾歐洲天然氣短缺的唯一直接解決方案之一。 然而，由于干氣供應未能達到預期，今年上半年天然氣供應出現了一些嚴重的阻力。

艾倫繼續說：“供應鏈瓶頸和資本約束的運營商一直是供應顯著增長的主要抑制因素，但干氣供應正在出現上升。”

艾倫強調，即使增加天然氣產量也不太可能抑制天然氣價格，因為鉆井公司難以滿足日益飆升的國內外需求。

艾倫在報告中稱：“此外，天然氣庫存水平遠低于5年平均水平，盡管冬季即將來臨，但庫存水平幾乎沒有回升的跡象。” 

“市場參與者正試圖確定，這種上漲是對價格的短期反應還是由于下半年支出增加而導致的結構性增長。我們的分析指向后者，因為我們預計未來兩年的中期增長率為8.25%。”艾倫在報告中如是說。

這名Rystad的資深分析師還在報告中指出，“悶熱”的夏季將電力消耗推至前所未有的水平，并強調美國自由港LNG終端爆炸“立即改變了市場動態，使總需求每天減少20億立方英尺”。 

“亨利中心的天然氣價格在10美元/百萬英熱單位的懸崖上是短暫的，并立即下跌。”艾倫說。  

艾倫補充說：“然而，隨著創紀錄的溫度持續存在，這種說法意味著創紀錄的燃氣發電量可能會為整體需求圖景帶來一些提振。” 

艾倫在報告中警告稱，冬季天然氣短缺的幽靈正籠罩著市場，并補充稱，定價結果的巨大差異正變得越來越大。

艾倫說：“高氣價預計還會持續一段時間，季末熱帶風暴或颶風的威脅以及嚴冬的風險可能會引發更高的氣價。”

在撰寫本文時，亨利中心天然氣的交易價格為每百萬英熱單位7.90美元。到目前為止，今年這種大宗商品的最高收盤價為8月22日的9.68美元。到目前為止，其今年最低收盤價為1月4日的3.71美元。從6月到9月，亨利中心的天然氣價格上下波動猶如坐過山車，7月一度跌至5.51美元，8月達到今年最高收盤價9.68美元。 

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

USA Gas Market Rollercoaster Ride Far from Over

It’s an understatement to say that U.S. gas markets have had a whirlwind year, but the rollercoaster ride is far from over as winter beckons. 

That’s what Rystad Energy Analyst Ade Allen said in a market note sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, adding that high gas prices are expected to stick around for a while.

“Market participants have been forced to adapt their strategies in response to rising demand, geopolitical complications and supply bottlenecks,” Allen stated in the note.

“The importance of U.S. LNG exports to Europe is increasing further as one of the only immediate solutions to the gas shortage currently gripping Europe. However, the first half of the year presented some significant headwinds as dry gas supply failed to meet expectations,” Allen added.

“Supply chain bottlenecks and capital-disciplined operators have served as the primary inhibitors of significant supply growth, but an uptick in dry gas supply is emerging,” Allen continued.

Even increased production is unlikely to temper prices though as drillers struggle to keep up with soaring domestic and international demand, Allen highlighted.

“Further, storage levels are far below the five-year average and have shown little sign of making up ground despite winter on the horizon,” Allen said in the note.

“Market participants are trying to decide if the gains are a result of short-term responsiveness to price or whether the growth is structural due to increased spending in the second half of the year. Our analysis points to the latter as we expect medium-term growth of 8.25 percent over the next two years,” Allen added.

The Rystad analyst also outlined in the note that a “sweltering” summer pushed power burns to previously unseen levels and highlighted that the Freeport LNG explosion “immediately changed the market dynamics by reducing overall demand by two billion cubic feet per day”.

“Henry Hub prices on the precipice of $10/MMBtu were short-lived and cratered immediately,” Allen said.

“However, as record temperatures lingered, the narrative implied that record gas-for-power generation could create some buoyancy for the overall demand picture,” Allen added.

In the note, Allen warned that the specter of winter is looming over the market and added that the large disparity of pricing outcomes is becoming more divergent.

“High gas prices are expected to stick around for a while, with the threat of a late-season tropical storm or hurricane and the risk of a severe winter potentially triggering an even higher price situation,” Allen said.

At the time of writing, the price of Henry Hub gas is trading at $7.90. The commodity’s highest 2022 close, so far, was seen on August 22 at $9.68. Its lowest 2022 close, so far, was seen on January 4 at $3.71. From June to September, the Henry Hub price has bounced up and down, dropping as low as $5.51 in July before seeing its highest close of the year in August.