據美國鉆井網站2022年12月7日報道，美國能源信息署(EIA)在周二（12月6日）發布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)報告中下調了2022年和2023年布倫特原油價格預測。
根據STEO報告公布的數據，EIA目前預計今年布倫特原油現貨價格平均為每桶101.48美元，明年為每桶92.36美元。在11月份發布的上一份STEO報告中，EIA預計今年布倫特現貨價格平均為每桶102.13美元，2023年為每桶95.33美元。
EIA在其最新的STEO報告中強調，11月份布倫特原油現貨均價為每桶91美元。EIA概述稱，這略低于10月份的價格，并補充稱，11月7日現貨價格接近每桶100美元，11月底為每桶86美元。
EIA在12月份的STEO報告中表示：“油價下調主要是市場對全球經濟增長的擔憂。”
“今年布倫特原油現貨價格將達到平均每桶101美元。盡管最近原油價格下跌，但我們仍預計2023年初全球石油庫存下降將推動布倫特原油價格在2023年第二季度初回升至每桶90美元以上。”
EIA繼續表示：“盡管根據我們對石油庫存上升的預測，我們預計2023年下半年可能會出現一些油價下行壓力，但這種壓力可能會被持續的供應中斷或產量增長低于我們的預測所平衡。”
在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油的價格為每桶79.47美元。布倫特原油12月1日收于每桶86.88美元。
李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站
原文如下：
EIA Lowers 2022 and 2023 Oil Price Forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its Brent oil price forecasts for both 2022 and 2023 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on Tuesday.
The EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $101.48 per barrel this year and $92.36 per barrel next year, according to the STEO. In its previous STEO, which was released in November, the EIA saw the Brent spot price averaging $102.13 per barrel in 2022 and $95.33 per barrel in 2023.
In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that the spot price of Brent crude oil averaged $91 per barrel in November. This was slightly lower than in October, the EIA outlined, adding that daily spot prices reached almost $100 per barrel on November 7 before ending the month at $86 per barrel.
“The price declines were largely the result of market concerns about global economic growth,” the EIA stated in the December STEO.
“Brent crude oil spot prices are on pace to average $101 per barrel in 2022. Despite the recent drop in crude oil prices, we still expect that falling global inventories of oil in early 2023 will push Brent prices back above $90 per barrel by the beginning of the second quarter of 2023,” the EIA added.
“Although we expect some downward oil price pressure could emerge in the second half of 2023 based on our forecast of rising oil inventories, that pressure will likely be balanced by the ongoing possibility of supply disruptions or production growth that is slower than our forecast,” the EIA continued.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $79.47 per barrel. Brent closed at $86.88 per barrel on December 1.
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