???? 據(jù)3月4日Rigzone消息：惠譽(yù)國(guó)家風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與產(chǎn)業(yè)研究公司分析師宣布，他們本月“大幅上調(diào)”了對(duì)油價(jià)的預(yù)測(cè)。
????有報(bào)告稱，分析師預(yù)測(cè)布倫特原油在2021年和2022年的平均價(jià)格分別為每桶64美元和63美元。高于此前預(yù)測(cè)的58美元和56美元。
????展望未來(lái)，分析師們預(yù)計(jì)，2023年布倫特原油平均價(jià)格將達(dá)到每桶67美元，2024年達(dá)到70美元，2025年達(dá)到72美元。而彭博共識(shí)預(yù)測(cè)，布倫特原油今年的平均價(jià)格將為每桶56美元，2022年為58.2美元，2023年為60美元，2024年為62.3美元，2025年為62美元。
????惠譽(yù)解決方案分析師在報(bào)告中表示：“布倫特原油2月份上漲約20％，反映出基本面趨緊和市場(chǎng)情緒活躍。”
????“在一定程度上，向上修正是為了反映今年迄今未曾預(yù)料到的強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭。也反映了我們對(duì)疫情后復(fù)蘇日益樂觀的預(yù)期。”
????“假設(shè)疫苗接種工作按計(jì)劃進(jìn)行，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)和人口流動(dòng)基本恢復(fù)正常，政府繼續(xù)支持這一進(jìn)程，GDP增長(zhǎng)和石油需求在未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度應(yīng)該會(huì)加快復(fù)蘇。”分析人士接著表示。
????“這反過(guò)來(lái)將收緊石油市場(chǎng)，并推動(dòng)全球庫(kù)存加速下降。此外，我們預(yù)計(jì)通貨再膨脹貿(mào)易將成為2021年市場(chǎng)的關(guān)鍵主題，從而使大宗商品受益。”
????在供應(yīng)方面，惠譽(yù)解決方案分析師將歐佩克+的行動(dòng)視為定價(jià)的“關(guān)鍵因素”。鑒于目前的價(jià)格走勢(shì)，他們預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克將在3月4日的下次會(huì)議上選擇4月份每日增產(chǎn)50萬(wàn)桶，而沙特阿拉伯將結(jié)束其自愿減產(chǎn)。
????分析師在報(bào)告中表示:“月度調(diào)整的過(guò)程賦予了該集團(tuán)更大的靈活性，以適應(yīng)供應(yīng)的增加和需求的復(fù)蘇。”
????“這使他們有機(jī)會(huì)在市場(chǎng)條件允許的情況下，在下半年恢復(fù)更多銷量。”加速解除交易可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致價(jià)格下跌。然而，分析師補(bǔ)充稱:“假設(shè)這一轉(zhuǎn)變已經(jīng)有了很好的跡象，并且該集團(tuán)保持了再次上調(diào)降息的選擇，如果基本面惡化，這種行動(dòng)可能會(huì)限制布倫特原油上漲，而不是引發(fā)市場(chǎng)反彈。”
????“鑒于我們認(rèn)為疫情后的復(fù)蘇將在今年開始，而且根據(jù)目前的交易情況，該集團(tuán)計(jì)劃在2021年每天增產(chǎn)200萬(wàn)桶，到2022年4月每天還將增加570萬(wàn)桶。 ”
????馮娟 摘譯自 Rigzone
????原文如下：
????Analysts Significantly Bump Oil Price Forecast
????Analysts at Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research (Fitch Solutions) have announced that they have made a “significant upward revision” to their oil price forecast this month.
????In an oil price outlook report sent to Rigzone this week, the analysts forecasted that Brent would average $64 per barrel and $63 per barrel in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This was up from a previous forecast of $58 per barrel and $56 per barrel for 2021 and 2022, respectively.
????Looking further ahead, the analysts project that Brent will average $67 per barrel in 2023, $70 per barrel in 2024, and $72 per barrel in 2025. The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and which Fitch Solutions is a contributor to, forecasts that Brent will average $56 per barrel this year, $58.2 per barrel in 2022, $60 per barrel in 2023, $62.3 per barrel in 2024, and $62 per barrel in 2025.
????“Brent rallied around 20 percent in February, reflecting tighter fundamentals and ebullient market sentiment,” Fitch Solutions analysts stated in the report.
????“In part, the upward revision was made to reflect unanticipated strength in the year to date. It also captures our increasingly bullish expectations the post-pandemic recovery,” the analysts added.
????“Assuming that vaccinations progress as planned, that economic activity and population mobility are allowed to broadly normalize, and that governments continue to support that process, GDP growth and demand for oil should pick up pace over the coming quarters,” the analysts went on to state.
????“This in turn would tighten the oil market and drive an accelerated drawdown in global inventories. In addition, we expect the reflation trade to take root as the key theme for markets in 2021, to the benefit of commodities,” the analysts continued.
????On the supply side, the Fitch Solutions analysts flagged action by OPEC+ as “the key factor” in setting prices. “In light of current price movements”, the analysts said their expectation is that the group will opt for a 500,000 barrel per day increase in output for April at the next meeting on March 4, while Saudi Arabia will end its voluntary cut.
????“The process of monthly adjustments has granted the group greater flexibility to match the increase in its supply with the recovery in demand,” the analysts stated in the report.
????“This gives them scope to return additional volumes in the second half of the year, market conditions permitting. An accelerated unwinding of the deal could risk upsetting prices. However, assuming that the shift is well signposted and that the group maintains the option to re-increase its cut, should the fundamentals deteriorate, it is likely that such action would serve to cap the gains in Brent, rather than to trigger a relapse in the market,” the analysts added.
????“Frontloading the return of these barrels would be advisable in our view, given that the bulk of the post-pandemic recovery will accrue this year and that, as the deal currently stands, the group plans to return only two million barrels per day in 2021 and a further 5.7 million barrels per day by April 2022,” the analysts continued.
