據(jù)今日油價網(wǎng)站5月13日消息 在短短一年時間里，全球最大的鋰生產(chǎn)商從對價格的謹(jǐn)慎樂觀和對擴(kuò)張項目的非常謹(jǐn)慎轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楣麛嗫春藐P(guān)鍵電池金屬的近期、中期和長期需求。

　　新冠疫情促使許多國家政府致力于綠色復(fù)蘇，并大幅提高可再生能源和電動汽車（EV）的份額，從而刺激了今年對關(guān)鍵礦產(chǎn)的需求。自汽車制造商開始承諾所有電動汽車產(chǎn)品線和電動汽車產(chǎn)品的指數(shù)增長以來，鋰和銅的價格一直在上漲。

　　對鋰的直接需求不斷上升，以及對長期需求激增的預(yù)期增加了頂級鋰生產(chǎn)商的銷量，目前無論從短期還是長期來看，這些生產(chǎn)商都更加看好鋰的價格和需求。

　　在多年來對鋰市場最為樂觀的預(yù)期下，分析師提醒稱，即便是增加的項目線也可能不足以滿足對鋰的旺盛需求，鋰是能源轉(zhuǎn)型中的關(guān)鍵電池金屬。專家和預(yù)測人士還提醒稱，在當(dāng)前大宗商品牛市中，原材料價格上漲實際上可能會減緩能源轉(zhuǎn)型，因為這可能會減緩電池成本的下降。降低電池成本對于電動汽車達(dá)到與傳統(tǒng)汽車同等的價格，并允許更多的儲能部署，以支持可再生能源在發(fā)電組合中不斷上升的份額至關(guān)重要。

　　王磊 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　The World Is Facing A Lithium Supply Crunch As Demand Soars

　　In just one year, the world’s largest lithium producers turned from cautiously optimistic about prices and very careful about expansion projects to decisively bullish on near, medium, and long-term demand for the key battery metal.

　　The pandemic prompted many governments to commit to greener recovery and to raising significantly the share of renewable energy and electric vehicles (EVs), stoking demand for critical minerals this year. Lithium, alongside copper, has seen prices rising since automakers started pledging all-EV lineups and exponential growth in their electric car offerings.

　　Rising immediate demand for lithium and expectations of surging demand in the longer term have increased sales of the top lithium producers, which are now much more bullish on lithium prices and demand, both for the short term and the long run.

　　Amid the most bullish expectations about the lithium market in years, analysts warn that even the increased project pipeline may not be sufficient to meet the booming demand for lithium—a critical battery metal—in the energy transition. Experts and forecasters also warn that rising raw material prices in the current commodity bull run could actually slow down the energy transition because it could slow the decline in battery costs. Lower battery costs would be critical to EVs reaching price parity with conventional vehicles and allowing for more energy storage deployment to support the rising share of renewables in the electricity generation mix.