歐佩克消息人士本周向《能源情報》(Energy Intelligence)表示，歐佩克將再次提醒那些未能遵守歐佩克+石油減產協議的國 家盡快提交減產計劃，說明如何將近幾個月超出配額的產量減至協議要求的數額。

　　自去年5月1日最新協議生效以來，歐佩克+聯盟中有10個產油國超額生產。該消息人士告訴《能源情報》，在這10個產油國中，多達7個尚未向歐佩克秘書處提交計劃，說明他們計劃如何補償違反減產的情況。

　　4月底歐佩克+部長級會議指出，所有國家“承諾應實現完全一致，并在延長的補償期內彌補之前減產的不足，這一補償期將持續到2021年9月底。”并強調了立即加速市場再平衡努力的重要性。

　　然而，歐佩克表示，一些國家“尚未達到完全遵守協議的最低要求，以彌補產量過剩。”

　　石油輸出國組織的消息人士告訴《能源情報》，在這些怠于減產的國家中，只有伊拉克、赤道幾內亞和加蓬已經提交了補償計劃，但俄羅斯、剛果、阿塞拜疆、文萊、 哈薩克斯坦、蘇丹和南蘇丹都沒有提交。

　　據《能源情報》估計，在歐佩克+減產協議實施后的一年中，歐佩克成員國的產量超過了12萬桶/天，而非歐佩克成員國的產量僅略高于其總配額的18萬桶/天。據估計，在2020年5月1日至2021年4月30日期間，俄羅斯是歐佩克+產油國中產量過剩最多的，在截至4月底的一年里，俄羅斯的產量平均超過其配額8萬桶/天。

　　根據《能源情報》的資料，俄羅斯認為符合95%-96%的減產標準就已足夠平衡市場。歐佩克+的另一個關鍵成員國沙特阿拉伯已經開始認識到，俄羅斯堅決支持并參與減產協議的代價，就是享有不完全遵守減產協議的豁免權。

　　宋鐵毅 編譯自 今日油價

　　OPEC Will Force Overproducing Members To Comply And Compensate

　　OPEC has had to remind once again the laggards in compliance in the OPEC+ oil production deal to submit plans on how they will compensate for pumping above their respective quotas in recent months, sources at OPEC told Energy Intelligence this week.

　　There are 10 producers in the OPEC+ alliance who have overproduced beyond their allowances since the latest pact became effective on May 1 last year. Of those 10 producers, as many as seven have yet to submit plans to the OPEC Secretariat on how they plan to compensate for breaching their quotas, the sources told Energy Intelligence.

　　At the latest ministerial meeting of OPEC+, the ministers noted at the end of April that all countries “pledged to achieve full conformity and make up for previous adjustment shortfalls during the extended compensation period, which runs through the end of September 2021, and stressed the importance of accelerating the market rebalancing efforts without delay.”

　　The ministers, however, noted that some countries “have yet to achieve the minimum expectation of 100% conformity and to compensate for overproduced volumes,” OPEC said.

　　Among those laggards, Iraq, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon have submitted plans for compensation schedules, but Russia, Congo, Azerbaijan, Brunei, Kazakhstan, Sudan, and South Sudan have not, OPEC sources told Energy Intelligence.

　　As per estimates by Energy Intelligence, in the year after the OPEC+ pact was implemented, OPEC members overproduced by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd), while non-OPEC members produced just over 180,000 bpd over their combined quotas. Russia is estimated to be the OPEC+ producer that has overproduced the largest volume between May 1, 2020, and April 30, 2021, pumping at 80,000 bpd above its quota on average for the year to end-April.

　　According to Energy Intelligence’s sources, Russia thinks that complying at around 95-96 percent is good enough. The other key member of the OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia, has started to accept that the lack of full Russian compliance could be the price to pay for keeping Moscow firmly supporting and participating in the production cut deal.