據世界石油5月30日倫敦報道，隨著布倫特原油逼近每桶70美元，石油公司幾十年來首次不再急于增加產量以追逐油價上漲。即使在位于美國能源繁榮中心的多產頁巖二疊紀盆地，鉆井公司也在抵制傳統的興衰循環。

　　由于華爾街投資者要求石油公司減少鉆探開支，把更多的錢返還給股東，以及氣候變化維權人士反對使用化石燃料，石油行業目前處境艱難。埃克森美孚就是這一趨勢的典型代表。

　　上周石油行業發生的戲劇性事件只是為歐佩克+產油國提供了一個機會，讓沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯領導的聯盟有更多的回旋余地來恢復自己的產量。由于非石油輸出國組織的產量未能像許多人預期的那樣快速反彈，或根據以往經驗所擔心的那樣迅速反彈，歐佩克可能在6月1日的會議上繼續增加供應。

　　股東們要求埃克森美孚減少鉆探，專注于向投資者返還資金。CalSTRS首席投資官克里斯托弗·艾爾曼稱:“我們確實看到公司正在走下坡路，除非他們改變和適應，否則無法在未來生存下去。現在他們不得不這樣做。”

　　埃克森美孚并不是單獨一家。荷蘭皇家殼牌公司上周輸掉了一場具有里程碑意義的官司，一家荷蘭法院要求該公司在2030年之前大幅削減排放，這將需要減少石油產量。許多業內人士擔心，其他地區將出現一波訴訟浪潮，西方石油巨頭比占歐佩克產量很大一部分的國有石油公司更容易成為直接目標。

　　顧問公司Rapidan 能源集團總裁、前白宮官員鮑勃·麥克納利表示:“我們看到，投資提高石油產量的行為正從污名化轉變為犯罪化。”

　　雖然非歐佩克+產油國的石油產量確實正在從2020年的暴跌以及去年4月和5月的極度低迷水平中緩慢回升，但距離全面復蘇還很遠。總體而言，非歐佩克+國家的石油產量今年將增加62萬桶/天，不到2020年130萬桶/天的一半。國際能源署表示，今年剩余時間的供應增長預測“遠不及”預期的需求增長。

　　2021年后，包括美國、巴西、加拿大和新產油國圭亞那在內的少數國家的石油產量可能會上升。但從英國到哥倫比亞、馬來西亞和阿根廷，其他地方的產量將會下降。

　　高管和交易員表示，由于非歐佩克+的石油產量增幅低于全球石油需求，歐佩克將控制市場。這是與過去的重大突破，當時石油公司通過急于再次投資來應對油價上漲，提高非歐佩克國家的產量，并讓沙特阿拉伯的阿卜杜勒阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼領導的部長們采取更加困難的平衡行動。

　　到目前為止，非歐佩克＋的石油產量沒有增長，這在市場上并沒有引起太大的反響。畢竟，新冠疫情還在繼續限制全球石油需求。今年晚些時候到2022年可能會更加明顯。到那時，預防新冠的疫苗接種活動可能會取得成果，世界將需要更多的石油。

　　當這種情況發生時，很大程度上將取決于歐佩克來填補這個缺口。這次復蘇的一個信號是美國的鉆井數:它在逐漸增加，但復蘇速度比2008-09年油價大崩盤后要慢。頁巖油公司堅持自己的承諾，通過股息向股東返還更多資金。在疫情之前，頁巖油公司將70-90%的現金流用于進一步鉆探，而現在他們將這一比例保持在50%左右。

　　其結果是，自2020年7月以來，美國原油產量一直維持在每天1100萬桶左右的水平。美國和加拿大以外地區的前景更加黯淡:據貝克休斯公司的數據，截至4月底，北美以外地區的鉆井平臺數量為523臺，低于一年前的水平，比兩年前同期下降近40%。

　　裘寅 摘譯自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC finds a rare opportunity as Wall Street, green activists hinder competition

　　For the first time in decades, oil companies aren’t rushing to increase production to chase rising oil prices as Brent crude approaches $70. Even in the Permian, the prolific shale basin at the center of the U.S. energy boom, drillers are resisting their traditional boom-and-bust cycle of spending.

　　The oil industry is on the ropes, constrained by Wall Street investors demanding that companies spend less on drilling and instead return more money to shareholders, and climate change activists pushing against fossil fuels. Exxon Mobil Corp. is paradigmatic of the trend.

　　The dramatic events in the industry last week only add to what is emerging as an opportunity for the producers of OPEC+, giving the coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Russia more room for maneuver to bring back their own production. As non-OPEC output fails to rebound as fast as many expected -- or feared based on past experience -- the cartel is likely to continue adding more supply when it meets on June 1.

　　Shareholders are asking Exxon to drill less and focus on returning money to investors. “They have been throwing money down the borehole like crazy,” Christopher Ailman, chief investment officer for CalSTRS. “We really saw that company just heading down the hole, not surviving into the future, unless they change and adapt. And now they have to.”

　　Exxon is unlikely to be alone. Royal Dutch Shell Plc lost a landmark legal battle last week when a Dutch court told it to cut emissions significantly by 2030 -- something that would require less oil production. Many in the industry fear a wave of lawsuits elsewhere, with western oil majors more immediate targets than the state-owned oil companies that make up much of OPEC production.

　　“We see a shift from stigmatization toward criminalization of investing in higher oil production,” said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official.

　　While it’s true that non-OPEC+ output is creeping back from the crash of 2020 -- and the ultra-depressed levels of April and May last year -- it’s far from a full recovery. Overall, non-OPEC+ output will grow this year by 620,000 barrels a day, less than half the 1.3 million barrels a day it fell in 2020. The supply growth forecast through the rest of this year “comes nowhere close to matching” the expected increase in demand, according to the International Energy Agency.

　　Beyond 2021, oil output is likely to rise in a handful of nations, including the U.S., Brazil, Canada and new oil-producer Guyana. But production will decline elsewhere, from the U.K. to Colombia, Malaysia and Argentina.

　　As non-OPEC+ production increases less than global oil demand, the cartel will be in control of the market, executives and traders said. It’s a major break with the past, when oil companies responded to higher prices by rushing to invest again, boosting non-OPEC output and leaving the ministers led by Saudi Arabia’s Abdulaziz bin Salman with a much more difficult balancing act.

　　So far, the lack of non-OPEC+ oil production growth isn’t registering much in the market. After all, the coronavirus pandemic continues to constrain global oil demand. It may be more noticeable later this year and into 2022. By then, vaccination campaigns against Covid-19 are likely to be bearing fruit, and the world will need more oil.

　　When that happens, it will be largely up to OPEC to plug the gap. One signal of how the recovery will be different this time is the U.S. drilling count: It is gradually increasing, but the recovery is slower than it was after the last big oil price crash in 2008-09. Shale companies are sticking to their commitment to return more money to shareholders via dividends. While before the pandemic shale companies re-used 70-90% of their cash flow into further drilling, they are now keeping that metric at around 50%.

　　The result is that U.S. crude production has flat-lined at around 11 million barrels a day since July 2020. Outside the U.S. and Canada, the outlook is even more somber: at the end of April, the ex-North America oil rig count stood at 523, lower than it was a year ago, and nearly 40% below the same month two years earlier, according to data from Baker Hughes Co.