據今日油價7月6日報道，石油市場正在趨緊，并將在今年剩余時間里繼續減少庫存。分析師和行業專業人士表示，減產的主要原因是歐佩克+在未來幾個月提供的供應低于預期的需求增長。歐佩克+預計將在8月至12月期間每日增產200萬桶。前提是阿聯酋與其他國家在基線生產水平上的爭議僵局能夠得到解決，并在本周達成協議。由于歐佩克+取消了周一上午的會議，目前看來這樣的協議不太可能達成。

　　許多分析師認為，隨著需求反彈，提議增加200萬桶/天的供應量(每月增加40萬桶/天)將大大低于石油市場的需求。

　　全球最大的獨立石油交易商維托爾集團(Vitol Group)認為，盡管2021年剩余時間內，石油供應可能增長，但全球石油市場將繼續收緊。

　　維多（Vitol）亞洲負責人邁克?穆勒（Mike Muller）周日在能源咨詢公司海灣情報（Gulf Intelligence）主辦的每日市場網絡研討會上表示：“我認為有一點很肯定, 無論我們看到的歐佩克+增產產幅度有多小，都將是2021年下半年，滿足不斷增長的需求所需數量的一小部分。”

　　穆勒指出:“如果我們按照上周提出的數字，即從8月到可預見的未來5個月，每月增產40萬桶/天，那么現貨市場前景仍將是供不應求。”全球石油庫存將繼續下降，因為市場對原油的需求將超過歐佩克+計劃在今年剩余時間內增加的供應。

　　荷蘭國際集團（ING）策略師沃倫?帕特森（Warren Patterson）和姚文玉（Wenyu Yao），如果在12月前每月增產40萬桶/天，將對油價起到支撐作用。

　　幾周以來，來自歐佩克（OPEC+）高層石油商的跡象和評論一直在暗示，聯盟不會過快地大幅降低減產水平，因為它們可能希望看到市場比平衡的市場更緊張一些。

　　沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼親王在歐佩克+內部發出了繼續保持謹慎的信號，他已經警告交易者幾個月來不要做空石油。

　　薩勒曼6月初在俄羅斯的一個論壇上表示:“總是會有大量的供應來滿足需求，但我們必須先看到需求，然后才能看到供應。”

　　需求反彈已經出現，美國的情況最為明顯。

　　根據GasBuddy的數據，7月2日，美國汽油需求創下疫情爆發以來的新高，較前一個周五飆升9.3%，為2019年以來的最高單日需求。此外，GasBuddy石油分析主管Patrick De Haan在推特上表示，7月3日美國汽油需求較前一個周六增長1.9%，當周需求增長4.6%，為2019年8月以來最高水平。

　　對需求回升的預期令許多分析師看好石油市場，但其中很大一部分分析師警告稱，歐佩克+不會讓油價在每桶80美元上方過高。油價高于每桶80美元時將減緩需求增長，而因通脹影響，正在反彈的經濟體將受沖擊。

　　與此同時，世界第三大石油進口國印度再次呼吁歐佩克+放松減產措施，并停止會威脅價格敏感買家的需求復蘇的油價上漲。

　　印度石油部長普拉丹(Dharmendra Pradhan)表示，目前每桶75美元左右的油價對印度等對價格敏感的買家來說是“具有挑戰性的”。他正在“說服產油國朋友們”為一個合理的油價而努力。

　　盡管如此，歐佩克+在供應協議上的爭吵導致的需求上升將推高油價，至少在油價測試需求破壞開始的臨界值之前是這樣。

　　沙特國家銀行(Saudi National Bank)高級經濟學家阿米爾汗(Amir Khan):表示“當前環境對石油的需求是不斷上漲的，而供應前景的不確定性也將導致價格上漲。”

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Oil Markets Will Tighten Regardless Of OPEC's Decision

　　The oil market is tightening and will continue to draw down inventories for the rest of the year. This drawdown is largely due to OPEC+ offering less supply than the expected demand growth in the coming months, analysts and industry professionals say. The OPEC+ group is expected to add 2 million barrels per day (bpd) between August and December. That is if the UAE-vs-all-others standoff on baseline production levels is resolved and a deal is sealed this week. Such a deal now looks unlikely as OPEC+ called off the meeting on Monday morning.

　　The proposed additional supply of 2 million bpd, in monthly installments of 400,000-bpd production increases, would be considerably less than the oil market would need as demand is bouncing back, according to many analysts.

　　The world’s biggest independent oil trader, Vitol Group, also believes that the global oil market will continue to tighten regardless of the fact that supply is likely to grow for the rest of 2021.

　　“I think there’s very little doubt that whatever lessening of the OPEC+ production cutbacks we see…it will be a fraction of the amount needed to meet growing demand in the second half of 2021,” Mike Muller, head of Vitol Asia, told a daily market webinar hosted by energy consultancy Gulf Intelligence on Sunday.

　　“If we end up with the numbers mooted last week, which was 400,000 bpd per month, August through the foreseeable next five months…we will still have a market which has an outlook for the spot months that will see more demand than supply,” Muller noted.

　　As a result, global oil stocks are set to continue drawing down because markets would need more crude oil than OPEC+ is planning to add for the rest of the year, he added.

　　A 400,000-bpd easing of the cuts each month until December would be supportive for oil prices, ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao said early on Monday.

　　For several weeks, indications and comments from the top oilmen in OPEC+ have been suggesting that the alliance would not ease production levels too much too soon, as they would likely want to see the market a bit tighter than what would be a balanced market.

　　The Saudi Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, has signaled continued caution within OPEC+ as he has been warning traders for months not to bet against oil.

　　“There will always be a good amount of supply to meet demand, but we’ll have to see demand before you see supply,” Abdulaziz bin Salman said at a forum in Russia in early June.

　　The demand rebound is already here, most evident in the United States.

　　According to GasBuddy data, U.S. gasoline demand on Friday before the July 4 weekend hit a new COVID high, surging by 9.3 percent from the previous Friday, the highest single day for demand since 2019. Moreover, U.S. gasoline demand on July 3 rose 1.9 percent from the prior Saturday, closing out the week (Sun-Sat) with weekly demand up 4.6 percent, the highest since August 2019, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, tweeted this weekend.

　　Expectations of demand roaring back keep many analysts bullish on the oil market, although a large part of them warn that OPEC+ will not let oil prices run too much above $80. Oil above $80 would slow down demand growth and hurt rebounding economies with inflation.

　　Meanwhile, the world’s third-largest oil importer, India, called on OPEC+, again, to ease the cuts and stop the price rally threatening demand recovery from price-sensitive buyers.

　　Current prices, of around $75 a barrel, are “challenging” for price-sensitive buyers such as India, its Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said last week, adding that he is “persuading [his] producer friends” to work for a reasonable oil price.

　　Still, rising demand amid OPEC+ quarrels about a supply agreement is set to push prices higher, at least until oil tests the threshold where demand destruction begins.

　　“We’re in an environment where demand is rising for oil. This uncertainty about the supply outlook will feed into higher prices,” Amir Khan, senior economist at Saudi National Bank, told Bloomberg Television on Sunday.