據(jù)彭博新聞社2021年7月7日報(bào)道，盡管油價(jià)上漲，需求反彈，但美國能源信息署（EIA）預(yù)計(jì)它們對明年美國國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量增長的影響有限。

　　EIA周三在一份報(bào)告中說，美國石油公司今年的原油日產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1110萬桶，比此前的預(yù)測多出2萬桶。 明年的原油日產(chǎn)量將增加6萬桶至1190萬桶，這是自3月份以來首次向上修正。 與此同時(shí)，EIA把其對今年西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油的價(jià)格預(yù)測上調(diào)了4美元，至每桶65.85美元。

　　對美國原油產(chǎn)量增長有限的預(yù)估出爐之際，正值國內(nèi)原油供應(yīng)以數(shù)十年來最快速度下滑，且就在幾天前，歐佩克+談判宣告失敗，令市場不確定歐佩克+何時(shí)會增加原油供應(yīng)。

　　最近幾個(gè)月，美國頁巖生產(chǎn)商并沒有大幅提高產(chǎn)量，他們更看重紀(jì)律和投資者回報(bào)，而不是供應(yīng)增長。 到目前為止，每周公布的政府原油產(chǎn)量數(shù)據(jù)也證實(shí)了這一點(diǎn)，國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量持平在略高于1100萬桶/日，較疫情前的峰值低約200萬桶。

　　EIA在一份電子郵件聲明中表示，除了油價(jià)上漲之外，到2022年之前的產(chǎn)量預(yù)測還源于4月份的實(shí)際產(chǎn)量比模型最初預(yù)測的要高。

　　展望2022年，EIA將油價(jià)預(yù)測上調(diào)了6.23美元/桶，但仍預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將低于今年的62.97美元/桶，因?yàn)镋IA預(yù)計(jì)美國和歐佩克+的遞增的產(chǎn)量增長將超過消費(fèi)量。

　　EIA表示，這一預(yù)測已于7月1日完成，而歐佩克+的會議周一未達(dá)成決議，但EIA仍預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克+將在7月后繼續(xù)增加產(chǎn)量。

　　李峻 編譯自 彭博社

　　原文如下：

　　Higher oil prices will have limited effect on U.S. crude output, EIA projects

　　The U.S. sees limited domestic oil production growth through next year despite rising oil prices and rebounding demand.

　　Oil companies will produce 20,000 barrels a day more than previously forecast for this year, at 11.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said in a report Wednesday. Output next year was raised 60,000 barrels day to 11.9 million, making it the first upward revision since March. At the same time the agency boosted its price forecast for West Texas Intermediate by $4 a barrel to $65.85 for 2021.

　　The forecast for limited U.S. output growth comes as domestic supplies are falling at the fastest rate in decades and just days after OPEC+ negotiations failed, leaving the market uncertain about when to expect more supplies from the group.

　　U.S. shale producers haven’t significantly boosted production in recent months, favoring discipline and investor returns over supply growth. Weekly government oil production data so far has been a testament to that, with domestic output flat-lining at just above 11 million barrels a day, roughly 2 million barrels under its peak before the pandemic.

　　In addition to higher prices, the projections for more output through 2022 also stem from stronger actual production volumes in April than its model had originally predicted, the EIA said in an emailed statement.

　　Looking to 2022, the agency revised up its price forecast by $6.23 a barrel but still sees lower prices than this year at $62.97 as it expects incremental production growth from U.S. and OPEC+ to outpace consumption.

　　The EIA said that this forecast was completed on July 1, before OPEC+ ended its meeting without a resolution on Monday, but that it still expects OPEC+ to continue to increase production beyond July.