日本在线成人一区二区_成人a视频在线观看_僵尸世界大战2 在线播放_欧美影院在线播放

全球人口減少對石油生態構成威脅

   2021-08-23 互聯網訊

89

核心提示:   據今日油價7月29日報道,大約一周前,沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼王子在接受彭博社采訪

   據今日油價7月29日報道,大約一周前,沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒-阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼王子在接受彭博社采訪時表示,沙特阿拉伯將會是堅挺到最后的石油供應商,所有的油氣資源都會被釋放出來。

  要知道,本·薩勒曼被譽為全球油氣行業最有權勢的人,這個言論是在最新的歐佩克+協議達成后不久發表的,而沙特阿美首席執行官阿明·納賽爾在2019年1月表達了類似的觀點。

  這可能不是毫無意義的恫嚇。2019年末, 國際能源署(IEA)石油工業和市場部主管尼爾·阿特金森(Neil Atkinson)表示,“至少在未來十年,甚至更長的時間內,石油產品的需求將不斷上升,這將鞏固(沙特阿拉伯)作為全球市場基石的角色,成為市場上最可靠和最大的供應商。”

  阿特金森還強調了另一個很少被討論的石油需求逆風影響因素,即關鍵需求地區人口的減少。阿特金森認為,人口增長仍然是石油需求的主要驅動力,他估計石油需求可能在本世紀30年代達到峰值。

  在過去的幾年里,能源界的大部分注意力都集中在氣候變化等似乎更關乎生死存亡的危機上。現在,重點聚焦在新冠肺炎疫情的局勢上,但人口減少很少被認為是長期石油需求前景的主要不利因素。這可能是因為,與其他兩個風險因素不同,人口下降確實是一個聽起來有利的事情,因為這說明更多的女性接受教育和工作,以及更多的避孕手段,導致女性可以選擇少生孩子。另一個原因是,人口下降是一個非常緩慢的過程,其全面影響可能需要幾十年才能感受到。

  但毫無疑問的是,專家們現在警告稱,世界人口正在以比預期更快的速度下降,這可能最終會對包括能源在內的全球經濟主要領域產生巨大影響。

  7月初,華盛頓大學(University of Washington)健康指標與評估研究所(Institute for Health Metrics and evaluation)的研究人員警告稱,人口下降和老齡化已不再是發達經濟體的問題,而是世界大多數國家目前正在面臨的問題,這些國家都在漸漸過渡到人口自然下降的情況。

  1950年,女性一生平均生育4.7個孩子,后來,生育率在2017年幾乎減半至2.4,預計到2100年將降至1.7以下。這一數字遠低于發達國家平均每位婦女生育2.1個孩子的更替水平,這意味著到本世紀初,全球人口將經歷大規模縮減。

  事實上,研究人員預測,全球人口將在2064年左右達到97億的峰值,然后在2100年降至88億。

  主要石油消費國人口下降

  對油氣看漲者來說,長期形勢不明朗的原因是,預計主要石油和天然氣消費國的人口將大幅下降。

  中國是世界第二大石油消費國,每天的消費量估計為1280萬桶,而日本是世界第四大石油消費國,每天的消費量為400萬桶。

  第三大石油消費國印度的情況將略好一些,但到2100年仍將損失四分之一的人口。俄羅斯是世界第五大人口大國,預計其人口將下降15-50%。

  美國人口預計將從2020年的3.31億增長到2060年的4.04億,屆時人口預計將保持穩定。

  與美國一樣消耗石油的歐元區是少數幾個亮點地區之一。歐洲人口預計將繼續增長,從2020年的5.07億增長到2075年的7.08億,到2100年下降到6.89億。

  然而,歐洲也制定了一些世界上最積極的氣候目標,歐盟已經宣布了一系列氣候變化提案,旨在推動其實現到2050年實現碳中和的目標。

  人口減少的問題可能會因老齡化危機而加劇。

  據英國廣播公司報道,到2100年,全球80歲老人的數量將從目前的1.41億人增加到8.66億人。

  在美國,到2060年,65歲及以上的美國人將從5640萬增加到9820萬,增幅近75%。根據2019年的統計數據,并假設每位司機每加侖汽油平均行駛20英里,這意味著汽油需求將下降約5%。55-64歲年齡組的行駛里程(每年11972英里)大幅下降至65歲及以上年齡組的7646英里。

  老齡化也會對經濟產生不利影響,60歲以上人口比例增加10%,人均GDP增長率預計將下降5.5%。

  非洲的情況

  非洲人口的快速增長可能會在一定程度上彌補這一不足,但可能遠遠不足以遏制發達國家的發展趨勢。

  非洲是一個有趣的案例,這不僅是因為對未來幾十年的人口預測在某種程度上可能是至關重要的,而且還因為非洲大陸擁有龐大的人口,每天消耗430萬桶石油,甚至只是略低于印度。

  聯合國預計非洲人口將從2020年的13億增加一倍,到2050年達到25億,到2100年達到43億。聯合國估計,非洲的生育率(從1980年的6.7降至4.4)還需要30年才能降至每個婦女生育3個孩子以下。

  然而,這低估了非洲大陸大部分地區上學女孩數量大幅增加的影響。上世紀70年代,撒哈拉以南非洲地區的小學入學率僅略高于一半,此后這一比例幾乎上升到100%。

  從世界其他地區獲得的經驗教訓表明,在預測人口增長曲線時,教育因素不可低估。

  此外,盡管大多數新興經濟體都沒有參與到持續的ESG繁榮中來,但非洲正在趕上國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的預測,即到2050年,非洲的電力消費將有意義地轉向可再生能源,預計到2100年,大部分電力將來自太陽能和風能。

  總的來說,我們可以推測,全球的人口趨勢對長期的石油需求前景構成了緩慢但真實的威脅,甚至取代了世界各國政府感到日益頭疼的氣候政策。

  王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

  原文如下:

  Shrinking Global Populations Poses An Existential Threat To Oil

  about a week ago, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman made waves in the oil community after telling Bloomberg News that Saudi Arabia "...is going to be the last man standing, and every molecule of hydrocarbon will come out."

  The comments by bin Salman—heralded as the most powerful man in the global oil and gas industry—came shortly after the latest OPEC+ agreement and mirrored those by Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, who expressed similar sentiments back in January 2019.

  And this might not be idle bluster: In late 2019, Neil Atkinson, head of the oil industry and markets division at the International Energy Agency, told CNBC that, "There's going to be rising demand for at least the next decade for oil products, possibly longer, and this is cementing [Saudi Arabia's] role as the cornerstone player in global markets, the most reliable and biggest supplier in markets."

  Atkinson also highlighted another rarely discussed oil demand headwind: Shrinking populations in key demand locations. According to Atkinson, population growth remains the key driving force for oil demand, which he estimated could peak in the 2030s.

  Over the past few years, most of the energy community's attention has been focused on seemingly more existential crises such as climate change. Now, the focus is on the Covid-19 pandemic. But seldom is population decline mentioned as a major headwind for the long-term oil demand outlook.

  Maybe that's the case because, unlike the other two risk factors, population decline really is a success story being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children. Another reason is because population decline is a much slower process whose full effects could take decades to be felt.

  But make no mistake about it: Experts are now warning that the world's population is declining at faster than anticipated rates, which could end up having a dramatic effect on major sectors of the global economy, including energy.

  In early July, Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and evaluation warned that declining and aging populations are no longer a problem for developed economies but, rather, most of the world is currently transitioning into natural population decline.

  In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime; the fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 and is projected to fall below 1.7 by 2100.

  That's well below the 2.1 children per woman that's considered the replacement level for developed nations, meaning the global population will be experiencing massive contraction by the turn of the century.

  Indeed, the researchers have projected that the global population will peak at 9.7 billion around 2064 before falling down to 8.8 billion by 2100.

  Population Declines by Major Oil Consumers

  What makes the long-term situation murky for the oil and gas bulls is the large population declines expected in major oil and gas consumers.

  By 2100, China is the world's second-largest oil consumer in the world, with a daily consumption estimated at 12.8 million barrels per day, while Japan is the fourth largest with a daily consumption of 4.0 million barrels per day.

  India, the third-largest oil-consuming nation, will fare a bit better but will still lose a quarter of its population by 2100. Russia, the 5th largest, is projected to see its population drop between 15-50%.

  The U.S. population is projected to expand from the current 331 million in 2020 to 404 million in 2060, when it's expected to plateau.

  The Eurozone—a region that consumes as much oil as the United States—is one of the few bright spots. Europe is projected to continue growing its population from 507 million in 2020 to 708 million in 20175 before falling to 689 million by 2100.

  However, Europe also has also set some of the world's most aggressive climate targets, with the European Union having announced a raft of climate change proposals aimed at pushing it towards its goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050.

  The problem of falling populations is likely to be aggravated by an aging crisis.

  The world's number of 80-year-olds is expected to rise from 141 million currently to 866 million by 2100, according to the BBC.

  In the United States, the number of Americans aged 65 or older will jump nearly 75% by 2060 from 56.4 million to 98.2 million. This translates into a demand drop for gasoline of about 5% when looking at 2019 usage statistics and assuming an average of 20 miles per gallon, per driver. Miles driven per year drops dramatically from the 55-64 age bracket (11,972 miles per year) to 7,646 for the 65 and over age bracket.

  Aging will also adversely affect the economy, with a 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ estimated to decrease the growth rate of GDP per capita by 5.5%.

  The African Situation

  Rapid population growth in Africa could take up some of that slack but will likely be far from adequate to stem the tide in the developed world.

  Africa is an interesting case not only due to the fact that demographic forecasts of coming decades diverge in a way that could be crucial but also due to the fact that the continent has a huge population that consumes 4.3 million barrels of oil per day, or slightly less than India.

  The UN expects Africa's population to double from 1.3 billion in 2020 to 2.5 billion by 2050 and 4.3 billion people by 2100. The UN reckons that fertility rates in Africa—which have dropped to about 4.4 from 6.7 in 1980—will take another three decades to fall below three children per woman.

  However, that underestimates the impact of a big jump in the number of girls who are now going to school across large parts of the continent. In the 1970s, little more than half of all children in sub-Saharan Africa were enrolled in primary school, a proportion that has since shot up to almost 100%.

  Lessons garnered from other parts of the world that have recorded such dramatic increases in enrollment rates suggest that this factor cannot be underestimated in predicting the population growth curve.

  Further, although emerging economies have mostly been missing in the ongoing ESG boom, Africa is catching up with the IMF predicting a meaningful shift in African power consumption to renewables by 2050, with most power expected to come from solar and wind by 2100.

  Overall, we can surmise that population trends across the globe pose a slow yet real and insidious threat to the long-term oil demand outlook even in lieu of increasingly hostile climate policies by the world's governments.



免責聲明:本網轉載自其它媒體的文章,目的在于弘揚石化精神,傳遞更多石化信息,并不代表本網贊同其觀點和對其真實性負責,在此我們謹向原作者和原媒體致以敬意。如果您認為本站文章侵犯了您的版權,請與我們聯系,我們將第一時間刪除。
 
 
更多>同類資訊
推薦圖文
推薦資訊
點擊排行
網站首頁  |   |  關于我們  |  聯系方式  |  使用說明  |  隱私政策  |  免責聲明 網站地圖  |   |  工信部粵ICP備05102027號

粵公網安備 44040202001354號

 
日本在线成人一区二区_成人a视频在线观看_僵尸世界大战2 在线播放_欧美影院在线播放
黄色国产精品视频| 国产裸体写真av一区二区| 中文精品一区二区三区| 久久深夜福利免费观看| 国产精品色悠悠| 久久最新资源网| 久久精品国产一区| 久久精品91久久香蕉加勒比| 久久久久久久9| 国产精品情侣自拍| 欧美精品制服第一页| 国产精品久久77777| 精品视频9999| 伊人婷婷久久| 色哺乳xxxxhd奶水米仓惠香| 日韩国产精品一区二区三区| 欧美一级爱爱| 国产中文字幕91| 99中文字幕| 国产高清自拍一区| 久久99精品久久久久子伦| 久久久精品一区二区三区| 国产aⅴ精品一区二区三区黄 | 久操手机在线视频| 久久久久久久久久久成人| 久久九九有精品国产23| 久久亚洲精品一区| 亚洲精品一区国产精品| 日本精品视频一区| 免费一级特黄特色毛片久久看| 国产又黄又猛视频| 91高清免费视频| zzijzzij亚洲日本成熟少妇| 欧美精品午夜视频| 色中文字幕在线观看| 欧美日韩一区二区三| 操人视频欧美| 久久国产日韩欧美| 国产精品美女在线观看| 亚洲欧洲精品一区| 激情深爱综合网| 91久久精品一区二区别| 久久久精品在线观看| 亚洲成色www久久网站| 欧美在线观看网址综合| 国产欧美日韩中文字幕| 色偷偷9999www| 免费av在线一区| 人妻熟女一二三区夜夜爱| 国产啪精品视频网站| 久久久久无码国产精品一区| 色在人av网站天堂精品| 日韩免费在线免费观看| 国产欧美日韩网站| 三级精品视频久久久久| 亚洲一区二区三区午夜| 欧美日韩大片一区二区三区| 99国产视频| 国产精品久久久久久久久免费 | 人妻无码久久一区二区三区免费| 国产一区二区丝袜高跟鞋图片| 97人人香蕉| 国产精品成人久久久久| 日韩欧美99| 91成人综合网| 在线视频不卡一区二区| 欧美一区二区综合| 久久免费国产精品1| 在线视频不卡国产| 国产欧美日韩综合精品二区| 久久色在线播放| 日本一区二区三区四区高清视频| 99亚洲精品视频| 精品乱色一区二区中文字幕| 韩国福利视频一区| 久久99导航| 午夜精品一区二区三区在线播放| 国产一区二区自拍| 国产精品日韩在线播放| 日本91av在线播放| 久久www免费人成精品| 亚洲精品成人a8198a| 99精品国产一区二区| 一区二区视频国产| 国产毛片视频网站| 久久成人这里只有精品| 国产一区二区网| 欧美精品一本久久男人的天堂| 欧美xxxx黑人又粗又长密月| 日韩中文在线中文网三级| 日韩免费高清在线观看| 国产成人精品免费久久久久 | 久久综合九色综合久99| 伊甸园精品99久久久久久| 国产日韩欧美二区| 久久99热精品| 成人久久久久久久| 亚洲综合精品一区二区| 分分操这里只有精品| 亚洲一区二三| 国产精品6699| 日本a级片在线播放| 国产a级片免费观看| 日韩少妇内射免费播放| 国产二区一区| 欧美在线一区二区三区四区| 国产精品情侣自拍| 国产一级不卡视频| 一女被多男玩喷潮视频| 91av免费观看91av精品在线| 日韩精品一区二区三区外面| 国产精品美女视频网站| 国产亚洲欧美一区二区三区| 一区二区三区的久久的视频| 91精品天堂| 青草视频在线观看视频| 国产精品福利网| 国产精品综合久久久久久| 午夜精品久久久久久久白皮肤| 久久在线中文字幕| 欧美日韩在线成人| 一级做a爰片久久| 国产xxxx振车| 国产在线拍偷自揄拍精品| 中文字幕在线中文 | 77777亚洲午夜久久多人| 日本午夜人人精品| 久久亚洲精品小早川怜子66| 99电影在线观看| 欧美h视频在线观看| 久久99精品视频一区97| 91久久久久久久久久久| 欧美日韩精品一区| 在线观看日韩羞羞视频| 久久久久这里只有精品| 国产在线视频在线| 日韩不卡av| 久久91精品国产91久久跳| 国产精品9999久久久久仙踪林| 免费看黄在线看| 午夜精品在线视频| 国产精品福利在线| 久久精品ww人人做人人爽| 国产一级片91| 欧美亚洲国产日本| 亚洲人体一区| 国产精品美乳在线观看| 131美女爱做视频| 免费国产在线精品一区二区三区| 亚洲欧美一区二区原创| 国产精品男女猛烈高潮激情| av无码精品一区二区三区| 欧美日韩一区二区视频在线观看 | 国模吧无码一区二区三区| 亚洲精品女av网站| 欧美麻豆久久久久久中文| 久久久久久久久久久久久久一区| 国产人妻人伦精品| 日韩精品一区二区三区四| 久久久久久成人| 国产精品久久久久久久久影视| 久久久亚洲国产精品| 国产日韩第一页| 黄色一级片黄色| 日韩欧美三级一区二区| 日韩一级片播放| 一区二区三视频| 欧美激情一区二区三区久久久| 国产精品无码专区在线观看| 国产成人av影视| 97精品一区二区视频在线观看| 免费在线观看日韩视频| 日本高清视频精品| 午夜精品三级视频福利| 国产99视频在线观看| 国产精品第一视频| 国产精品视频在线观看| www.久久撸.com| 久草精品在线播放| 国产成年人在线观看| 99热国产免费| 91久久精品视频| 91久久精品在线| 91精品久久久久久久久久久久久久| 国产啪精品视频| 国产麻豆日韩| 成人欧美一区二区三区黑人| 国产视频一区二区三区四区| 国内自拍欧美激情| 黄色91av| 国产在线视频欧美| 国产日韩欧美在线观看| 国产一区二区在线播放| 国产欧美在线看| 国产免费一区二区三区在线观看 | 亚洲中文字幕无码中文字| 国产精品久久精品| 国产精品久久av| 国产精品久久久久久久久久久久| 国产精品丝袜视频|