據今日油價8月2日報道，全球大力減少碳和其他化石燃料排放的努力預計將嚴重影響對化石燃料的需求，最終將引發“石油需求峰值”。在這種情況下，原油消費將停止增長，然后逐漸收縮，導致價格下跌。許多分析機構和全球石油巨頭認為，這種情況可能在2030年發生，甚至可能更早就會到來，正如新冠肺炎疫情的影響所顯示的那樣。盡管石油需求峰值對全球石油工業造成了長期的威脅，但并沒有遏制正在南美洲的大規模石油繁榮。如果說有什么不同的話，那就是全球能源巨頭正在加大對非洲石油工業的投資，尤其是圭亞那Surname盆地和巴西近海地區的投資。

　　如果世界第六大經濟體印度能夠從新冠肺炎疫情中復蘇并恢復經濟增長，那么全球石油消費的增長速度將會加快。值得一提的是，全球能源巨頭對南美的吸引力越來越大，對阿根廷石油產區的投資穩步增加，此外，哥倫比亞2021年的競購也引起了關注。但是，巴西近海地區已經成為非洲大陸石油繁榮的焦點。即使在新冠肺炎疫情影響，以及博索納羅總統和巴西國家石油公司經驗豐富的首席執行官羅伯托·卡斯特羅·布蘭科之間存在矛盾的情況下，能源投資者僅在最初時期感到擔憂，但對巴西至關重要的石油行業來說，幾乎沒有影響。事實上，巴西未來五年的石油產量增長速度預計將超過除美國和歐佩克以外的任何國家。即使大型石油公司努力實現碳中和，避免被擱置的資產或那些在碳中和世界中開采不經濟的石油儲備所拖累，這種情況也會發生。

　　正是巴西的近海超深水鹽下油田吸引了外國能源巨頭的極大興趣，過去10年里，巴西的盈虧平衡價格一直在穩步下跌，成為全球成本最低的油田之一。業內分析師估計，巴西的近海油氣項目在35美元/桶的低油價下實現了盈虧平衡，而運營成本預計將進一步下降，可能會低于30美元/桶。2020年4月初，在由俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯醞釀的價格戰和新冠肺炎疫情引發的2020年油價暴跌達到頂峰時，巴西國家石油公司聲稱，公司整體盈虧平衡價格為每桶21美元。值得注意的是，巴西國家石油公司繼續報告了令人印象深刻的石油生產總成本，2021年第一季度的石油生產成本僅為32美元/桶。再加上該公司鹽下油田2.70美元/桶的低開采成本，突顯出巴西近海石油行業的盈利能力。博爾索納羅政府發起的改革，包括對加強私有化的關注，大大提高了在巴西境外投資的吸引力。這些立法修正案增加了競爭，減少了監管限制，并為外國能源公司提供了更多的進入鹽下石油盆地的機會，這也將有助于壓低盈虧平衡價格，進一步增強巴西對外國能源公司的吸引力。

　　因此，大型石油公司紛紛涌入拉丁美洲最大的石油生產國投資，特別是在油價自2020年3月油價暴跌以來有所回升之后，國際布倫特基準原油自2021年初以來上漲了49%。巴西油氣監管機構國家石油管理局（ANP）在2021年1月預測，到2021年，流入石油勘探和生產活動的投資將達到驚人的130億美元。監管機構認為，這將為今年45口勘探井的鉆探提供資金，其中19口將在巴西近海地區，主要位于高產的低成本鹽下油田。全球石油巨頭埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)宣布，將優先在該地區進行短期資本支出，因為該公司認為，這些資產有可能在其投資組合中產生最強勁的回報，這突顯了投資巴西近海資產的吸引力。埃克森美孚及其合作伙伴挪威國家石油公司（Equinor）和葡萄牙石油公司(Petrogal)承諾投資總計80億美元，開發巴西桑托斯盆地海上超深水Bacalhau油田。埃克森美孚持有該項目40%的股份，另外40%的股份由挪國油持有，挪國油也是該項目的運營商，剩余的20%由葡萄牙石油公司持有。該財團預計，該油田的可采資源可達20億桶，將在2024年首次生產石油。Bacalhau是一個特別有吸引力的開發資產，因為該財團聲稱其低污染低硫輕質原油的碳含量接近全球平均水平的一半。

　　為了吸引更多的外國能源投資，ANP正在拍賣Potiguar、Campos、Santos和Pelotas近海盆地的92個勘探和生產特許權。值得一提的是，因為新冠肺炎疫情，巴西推遲了2021年10月的招標。這些資產將進一步推動投資，并最終推動該地區的石油產量增長，使其成為世界上最熱門的近海勘探區塊，還將推動全球非歐佩克國家和美國的石油產量增長。盡管大型石油公司正在發達地區出售成本較高的老舊石油資產，但它們正加大對巴西迅速擴張的近海石油繁榮的投資。有利的立法、較低的盈虧平衡價格和高質量低排放輕質和中輕質原油，使巴西成為石油巨頭眼中一個極具吸引力的目的地，即使當前是一個發達國家正在不斷推動經濟脫碳的世界。

　　王佳晶 摘譯自 今日油價

　　原文如下：

　　Not Even The Peak Oil Threat Can Slow Brazil's Oil Boom

　　The global push to substantially reduce carbon and other fossil fuel emissions is expected to sharply impact demand for fossil fuels. It will eventually trigger a phenomenon known as peak oil demand, where crude oil consumption will cease growing, flat line, and then progressively contract causing prices to fall. A raft of analytical agencies and global oil supermajors believe that it could occur by 2030, or potentially even earlier as fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has indicated. While peak oil demand poses an ominous long-term threat to the global petroleum industry it has not crimped the massive oil boom underway in South America. If anything, global energy supermajors are ratcheting up their investment in the continent’s petroleum industry, particularly the Guyana-Surname Basin and offshore Brazil.

　　If India, the world’s sixth-largest economy, can recover from the coronavirus pandemic and return to growth then the rate at which global petroleum consumption is growing will accelerate. Global energy supermajors are increasingly attracted to South America, with investment in Argentina’s oil patch steadily ratcheting up and Colombia’s 2021 bid round gaining attention. But it is offshore Brazil that has become the focal point of the continent’s oil boom. Even the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and a spat between President Bolsonaro and Petrobras’ highly experienced CEO Roberto Castello Branco, which initially alarmed energy investors, have had little if any material on Brazil’s economically crucial oil industry. In fact, Brazil’s oil output over the next five years is expected to grow at a greater rate than any other nation except the U.S. and those comprising OPEC. This will occur even with big oil pushing to make operations carbon neutral and avoid being burdened with stranded assets, or those petroleum reserves which are uneconomic to exploit in a carbon-neutral world.

　　It is Brazil’s offshore ultra-deepwater pre-salt oilfields that are attracting considerable interest from foreign energy majors, with breakeven prices that have been steadily falling over the last decade to be some of the lowest globally. Industry analysts estimate offshore projects in Brazil are breaking even at a low $35 per barrel, which with operational costs tipped to fall should fall further, potentially below $30 a barrel. In early April 2020, at the height of the 2020 oil price collapse, triggered by Russia and Saudi Arabia’s brewing price war and the coronavirus pandemic, Petrobras claimed to be operating with a companywide breakeven price of $21 per barrel. Brazil’s national oil company continues to report an impressive total cost of oil produced, which for the first quarter of 2021 was a low $32 per barrel. That, in conjunction with a very low lifting cost of $2.70 per barrel for Petrobras’ pre-salt oilfields, underscores the profitability of Brazil’s offshore oil industry. The attractiveness of investing in offshore Brazil was significantly enhanced by the reforms initiated by the Bolsonaro administration, including a focus on increased privatization. Those legislative amendments have increased competition, reduced regulatory restrictions and provided greater access to the pre-salt oil basins for foreign energy companies. This will also assist with driving breakeven prices lower, further enhancing Brazil’s attractiveness for foreign energy companies.

　　As a result, big oil is flocking to invest in Latin America’s largest oil producer, particularly after oil prices have recovered since the March 2020 oil price collapse with the international Brent benchmark up by 49% since the start of 2021. Brazil’s hydrocarbon regulator, the National Petroleum Agency (ANP – Portuguese initials) forecast in January 2021 that investment inflows into petroleum exploration and production activities would reach an impressive $13 billion during 2021. This the regulator believes will fund the drilling of 45 exploration wells this year, with 19 slated for offshore Brazil, primarily in the prolific low-cost pre-salt oil basins. The attractiveness of investing in offshore Brazil is underscored by global oil supermajor ExxonMobil announcing that it was prioritizing the region for near-term capital spending because it believes those assets have the potential to generate some of the strongest returns in its portfolio. That commitment is demonstrated by Exxon and its partners Equinor and Petrogal committing to invest a combined $8 billion to develop the ultra-deepwater Bacalhau oil discovery in Brazil’s offshore Santos Basin. Exxon holds a 40% interest in the project with another 40% controlled by Equinor, which is also the operator, and the remaining 20% is owned by Petrogal. The consortium expects the oilfield, which is estimated to contain recoverable resources of up to two billion barrels of oil equivalent, will produce first oil by 2024. Bacalhau is a particularly attractive asset to develop because of the low contaminant sweet light crude oil which the consortium claims possesses a carbon content of nearly half the global average.

　　To draw further foreign energy investment, the ANP is auctioning 92 exploration and production concessions in the Potiguar, Campos, Santos, and Pelotas offshore basins in Brazil’s pandemic postponed October 2021 bid round. This will further boost investment and ultimately petroleum output in what is shaping up to be one of the world’s hottest offshore jurisdictions, which will lead to global non-OPEC and U.S. oil production growth. While big oil is selling higher-cost aging petroleum assets in developed regions it is ramping up investment in Brazil’s rapidly expanding offshore oil boom. A combination of favorable legislation, low breakeven prices, and high-quality low emission sweet light and medium crude oil makes Brazil an extremely attractive destination for big oil even in a world where developed nations are pushing the decarbonization of their economies.