據1月13日RT報道，美國能源信息署(EIA)表示，2023年美國原油產量將超過疫情前水平，原因是頁巖油產量飆升，油價上漲推動生產商鉆更多油井，以抵消產量下降的影響。

EIA在1月份的短期能源展望(STEO)中表示，2023年美國原油平均日產量將達到1240萬桶，首次公布了對2023年的預測。

美國政府表示，由于2月得克薩斯嚴寒期和8月、9月艾達颶風期間因天氣造成的停產，2021年美國平均石油產量下降了10萬桶/天，至平均1120萬桶/天。

2021年產量為110萬桶/天，低于2019年創紀錄的1230萬桶/天，因為在疫情爆發之前，運營商們就已經在被迫削減產量，嚴格控制資本支出，并在考慮增產之前獎勵股東。

今年，美國原油年均產量預計將增長至1180萬桶/天。EIA預測，從2021年第四季度到2023年，美國原油產量將連續9個季度增長。

美國政府指：“產量增長反映了油價上漲，我們預計油價將使上游開發活動持續增加，預計增速將超過下降速度”。

盡管2023年年均原油產量預計將創紀錄，但EIA表示，預測中任何一個月的產量都不會超過2019年11月創下的1297萬桶/天月度紀錄。

EIA預測，與需求增長相比，美國原油產量不斷上升將加劇全球原油供應過剩。代理署長Steve Nalley在一份聲明中表示，“我們預計今年全球石油產品需求將恢復并超過疫情前水平，但原油產量將以更快速度增長。隨著原油產量增加，庫存將開始補充，并在短期內幫助推低汽油、航空燃油和其他產品價格”。

今年，美國石油和液體燃料消費量將略高于2019年水平，將達到2060萬桶/天，這主要得益于汽油消費量增加。到2023年，美國石油消費量將達到2090萬桶/天，主要受HGL石化產品產量增長推動。

今年石油市場一個不利因素可能是石油供應增長速度快于預期需求的增長，這在很大程度上仍取決于疫情發展態勢以及引發的潛在限制。

所有分析人士都預計，歐佩克+和非歐佩克+產油國(主要是美國)今年的石油供應將會增加。美國石油產量將增長多少，將取決于石油生產商如何應對每桶80美元的油價，以及它們在當前高油價下是否會繼續堅持支出限制。

成本壓力和熟練勞動力短缺可能會對增長構成壓力，而上市頁巖油公司可能會繼續優先考慮股東回報，以追求創紀錄產量增長。然而，私人生產商沒有投資者壓力，因此可能會引領美國頁巖氣市場增長。

美國政府對石油行業的政策，也可能對石油公司如何對待任何額外增產要求產生影響。美國石油行業對美國政府繼續與歐佩克+合作感到失望，同時美國政府試圖對更多的國內生產進行限制和征稅。而不是要求歐佩克+和沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、俄羅斯等國增加石油產量。要知道，美國石油產量在2020年因需求和油價暴跌而減少。

不過，市場力量和油價將是今年美國石油公司產量和股東回報計劃的關鍵驅動因素。如果頁巖資源再次過快地提高產量，油價將再次面臨下行壓力，可能會引發歐佩克+實施對策。

王佳晶 摘譯自 RT

原文如下：

US oil output to set new record

US crude oil production is set to exceed pre-pandemic levels next year, driven by a jump in shale output as higher prices push producers to drill more wells to offset declining rates, the Energy Information Administration says.

America’s crude oil production is set to average 12.4 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), in which it revealed its first estimates for 2023. 

The annual average US oil production fell in 2021 by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to average 11.2 million bpd due to weather-related shut-ins during the Texas Freeze in February and Hurricane Ida in August and September, the administration said. 

Output last year was 1.1 million bpd below the annual record of 12.3 million bpd from 2019, just before Covid-19 struck and forced operators to curtail production, keep a tight rein on capital expenditures, and reward shareholders before thinking of growing production. 

This year, the annual average US crude oil production is set to grow to 11.8 million bpd. Next year, the record annual average from 2019 will be exceeded, the EIA says, expecting 12.4 million bpd in 2023.

EIA forecasts US crude oil production will increase for nine consecutive quarters, from the fourth quarter of 2021 through 2023. 

“Production growth reflects oil prices that we expect will be sufficient to lead to continued increases in upstream development activity, which we forecast will proceed at a pace that will more than offset decline rates,” the administration noted.

Despite the forecast of record annual average crude oil production in 2023, the EIA does not expect that production in any month in the forecast will surpass the monthly record of 12.97 million bpd set in November 2019. 

Rising US crude oil production will add to the global oversupply compared to demand growth, the EIA predicts. 

“We expect global demand for petroleum products to return to and surpass pre-pandemic levels this year, but crude oil production grows at a faster rate in our forecasts,” EIA Acting Administrator Steve Nalley said in a statement. 

“We expect that as crude oil production increases, inventories will begin to replenish and help push prices lower for gasoline, jet fuel, and other products in the short term,” Nalley added. 

This year, America’s consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will slightly surpass 2019 levels and will average 20.6 million bpd, led by higher gasoline consumption. In 2023, US consumption will reach 20.9 million bpd, led by growth in hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGLs). 

One of the bearish factors for the oil market this year could be the faster oil supply growth compared to the expected demand increase, which still hinges very much on Covid-19 developments and potential new waves and restrictions. 

All analysts expect growing supply from both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and the non-OPEC+ producers, mostly the United States, this year. Just how much US production will grow will depend on how producers react to $80 oil prices and whether they will continue to stick to spending restraint at these high prices.

Cost pressures and a shortage of skilled labor could weigh on growth, while public shale firms will likely continue to prioritize shareholder returns to chase record production growth. Private producers, however, do not have investor pressure to respond to and could lead the growth in the US shale patch. 

The Biden Administration’s policies toward the oil industry could also play a part in how companies will treat any additional calls to grow production. The US oil sector is frustrated with the Administration’s continued engagement with OPEC+ while it looks to restrict and tax more domestic production. Instead of asking OPEC+ and counties like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia to pump more oil, the Administration should have laid the foundations for a faster recovery of US oil output, which producers curtailed in 2020 in response to the crash in demand and oil prices, executives said last month.

Still, market forces and oil prices will be the key driver of production and shareholder return plans of US oil companies this year. If the shale patch gets ahead of itself again and raises production too fast, oil prices will come under renewed downward pressure, potentially triggering a response from OPEC+.