? 由于世界試圖從化石燃料轉型，運輸和能源生產對石油的需求肯定會在某個時候下降。  

? 由于其他領域需求的下降，石化行業對石油行業的重要性將越來越大，石化行業有望實現長期增長。  

? 石化行業必須解決的一個難題是塑料污染，石油巨頭在建設他們的石化未來時將不得不應對這一問題。 

據美國油價網報道，由于石油巨頭擔心可再生能源對化石燃料的替代威脅，加之企業不斷受到限制化石燃料生產的壓力，石化產品將變得越來越重要。由于石油巨頭繼續投資石油和天然氣項目，它們希望確保自己新的勘探和生產業務能夠獲得長期回報，而這個問題正變得越來越不確定。 然而，隨著全球對石化產品的需求增加，石油巨頭能夠依然無恙，因為他們知道，如果某些行業的石油需求下降，他們的“黑金”仍有用處。   

當我們想到石油時，我們通常把它看作是一種能源，而很少考慮它的其他用途。 但實際上，來自世界各地的大部分石油都用于生產日常用品，如服裝、輪胎、數碼設備、包裝材料、清潔劑和化肥。 2018年，石化原料約占全球石油需求的12%。 這一數字預計在未來幾十年將大幅增長，因為專家預計，從現在到2050年，石化行業每年將增加1000萬噸的石化產品。  

石油巨頭正在投資石化項目，尤其是塑料項目，因為他們預計未來幾年塑料需求將大幅增長。 國際能源署(IEA)預測，作為僅存的脫碳領域之一，從化石燃料中提取的塑料到2050年前將驅動幾乎一半的石油需求。 非營利組織Beyond Plastics的創始人兼總裁朱迪思·恩克認為，“塑料是化石燃料行業的B計劃。”

塑料在發達國家是常見的東西，各國政府目前正計劃限制某些塑料產品的使用，如一次性塑料。 但隨著能源公司投資擴大石化業務，許多公司正將產品瞄準亞洲和非洲市場，他們預計這兩個市場的需求將繼續增長。 這些塑料目前大部分是在美國和中東生產的。

但許多人非常擔心塑料產量的增加。 據估計，只有9%的塑料制品被回收，大多數塑料產品最終被扔進了垃圾填埋場。由于環保組織強調廢塑料對自然和野生動物的影響越來越大，世界各地越來越多的受訪者表示支持禁止使用一次性塑料。

但現在，美國西弗吉尼亞大學的工程師們認為他們可能找到了解決方案。 這些工程師正與美國能源部進行合作，試圖提高一次性塑料的回收率，并將其轉化為寶貴的芳烴，用于石油化工產品的生產。

研究人員的目標是使用簡單的一步微波催化過程將一次性塑料轉化為高價值的苯、甲苯和二甲苯(BTX)，用作石化材料。 

這個項目的研究助理Braskem Wang解釋說，“塑料升級回收中產生的乙烯和BTX芳烴可以用作再生塑料的原料。”此外，“這將減少對化石燃料衍生的乙烯和傳統煉油廠的BTX芳烴的需求，從而減少溫室氣體排放。” 

由于未來幾十年持續石油需求的不確定性增加(很大程度上取決于可再生能源的發展)，石油巨頭希望確保他們的新投資在需求減少的情況下仍能看到回報。 隨著去年疫情限制措施出臺，石油需求和價格暴跌，許多能源公司都看到了需求下降對它們可能意味著什么。 通過發展石化產品組合，并將石油轉化為其他高需求產品，企業可以確保即使面臨不確定性也能保持業務盈利。 

盡管研究人員正在努力開發更可持續的石化替代品，如生物基塑料和特殊化學品，但這些產品仍比化石燃料衍生產品昂貴得多。 盡管最近人們大力發展可再生能源，但石化產品仍處于起步階段，這意味著石油和天然氣公司很可能從化石燃料發電能源使用壽命以外的市場缺口中獲益。 

但并不是所有的政府都贊同石油巨頭把重點放在石化上的想法，因為政府正在努力實現國家經濟的脫碳。 在比利時的安特衛普，英國石油化工公司英力士因建設大型塑料廠而面臨反對。 2019年，英力士的所有者吉姆·拉特克利夫爵士宣布對這個項目投資34億美元，意圖擴大公司在歐洲的石化業務。 

這個塑料廠將是歐洲最大的石化投資，英力士預計將在現場創造450個工作崗位，并在相關公司創造2250個工作崗位。 工程計劃在今年晚些時候開建，但是一些非政府組織和荷蘭的西蘭省質疑新的乙烯“裂解裝置”是否會導致一次性塑料的產量增加，以及向大氣中釋放更多的氮氣。 這個項目能否順利進行，將決定未來其他油氣公司是否會開發類似的項目。 

隨著可再生能源行業的發展，一些世界能源巨頭可能會被趕下寶座，石油巨頭們正將大筆賭注押在石化產品上，以作為石油純粹作為能源來源的后備。 然而，在這一過程中，許多石油和天然氣公司可能會面臨來自政府和氣候活動人士的強烈反對，這可能會促使一些人尋求創新技術，在不放棄石油的情況下建立低碳實踐。  

李峻 編譯自 美國油價網

原文如下：

Plastic Will Fuel Oil Demand For Years To Come

·As the world attempts to transition away from fossil fuels, demand for oil from transport and energy generation is sure to decrease at some point.

·One sector that will have increasing importance to the oil industry as demand in other areas drops off is petrochemicals, a sector that is expected to see long-term growth.

·A difficulty that must be addressed in this sector is plastic pollution, something that oil giants will have to contend with as they build out their petrochemical futures.

As Big Oil worries about the looming threat of renewable alternatives, with governments and international organizations putting pressure on countries and companies to curb fossil fuel production, petrochemicals will become increasingly important. With oil majors continuing to invest in oil and gas projects, they want to be sure that their new exploration and production operations pay off in the long run, an issue that’s becoming increasingly uncertain. However, as the demand for petrochemicals increases worldwide, energy firms can be safe in the knowledge that if oil demand in some sectors wanes there will still be a use for their ‘black gold’. 

When we think about oil, we often think about it as an energy source, giving little consideration to the other ways in which it’s used. But much of the oil from around the world actually goes into producing everyday products such as clothing, tires, digital devices, packaging, detergents, and fertilizers. In 2018, petrochemical feedstock accounted for around 12 percent of global oil demand. This is a figure that is expected to increase substantially over the next few decades, as experts expect 10 million metric tonnes of growth in the petrochemicals industry every year between now and 2050. 

Big Oil is investing in petrochemical projects, particularly focusing on plastics, as demand is expected to increase substantially in the coming years. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that plastics derived from fossil fuels will drive almost half of oil demand by 2050, as one of the last remaining sectors to decarbonize. Judith Enck, Founder and President of the nonprofit organization Beyond Plastics, believes "Plastics is the Plan B for the fossil fuel industry."

Plastics are commonplace in the developed world, with governments now planning to curb the use of certain products such as single-use plastics. But as energy firms invest in expanding their petrochemicals business, many are aiming their products at the Asian and African markets, where they expect demand to continue increasing. Most of these plastics are currently being produced in the U.S. and the Middle East. 

But many are concerned about the increase in the production of plastics. Estimates suggest that only 9 percent of the plastics ever created have been recycled, with most products ending up in landfills. A growing number of people surveyed around the world say they support the banning of single-use plastics as environmental organizations highlight the growing impact of waste plastic on nature and wildlife. 

But now, engineers at West Virginia University think they may have the solution. Working alongside the U.S. Department of Energy in a public-private partnership, the engineers are attempting to increase the rate of recycling for single-use plastics and convert them into valuable aromatics used in the production of petrochemicals.

The researchers are aiming to use a simple one-step microwave catalytic process to upcycle single-use plastics into high-value benzene, toluene, and xylene (BTX) for use as petrochemical materials. 

Braskem, Wang, Research Assistant on the project, explains, “the produced ethylene and BTX aromatics from plastic upcycling can be used as feedstocks to re-make plastics.” Further, “That will reduce demand on fossil fuel-derived ethylene and BTX aromatics from conventional petroleum refinery, leading to a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions,” he said.

As uncertainty around sustained oil demand over the coming decades grows, with much depending on the development of renewable alternatives, Big Oil wants to make sure their new investments will still see a return even as demand wanes. Many energy firms had a glimpse of what decreased demand might mean for them as the pandemic restrictions of 2020 came into place, sending oil demand and prices plummeting. By developing their petrochemicals portfolio and converting oil into other high-demand products, companies can ensure that even faced with uncertainty they keep their business profitable.

While researchers are working hard to develop more sustainable petrochemical alternatives, such as bio-based plastics and specialty chemicals, these products are still much more expensive than fossil fuel-derived products. Despite a huge recent drive to develop renewable energy alternatives, petrochemical alternative production is still in its infancy, meaning that oil and gas firms are likely to benefit from the gap in the market beyond the lifespan of fossil fuel-generated energy. 

But not all governments are on board with Big Oil’s idea to focus on petrochemicals, as they strive for the decarbonization of national economies. In Antwerp, Belgium, British company Ineos is facing opposition over the construction of a giant plastics plant. Owner of Ineos, Sir Jim Ratcliffe, announced a $3.4 billion investment in the plant in 2019, with the intention of expanding the firm’s petrochemicals business in Europe. 

The plant would mark the biggest petrochemicals investment in Europe, and Ineos expects it to contribute 450 jobs on-site and 2,250 in associated companies. Construction is planned to begin later this year, but several NGOs and the Dutch province of Zeeland question whether the new ethylene “cracker” will lead to an increase in the production of single-use plastics as well as the release of more nitrogen into the atmosphere. Seeing whether this project goes ahead or not could determine the development of similar projects by other oil and gas companies in the future. 

Big Oil is betting big on petrochemicals as a backup for oil being used purely as an energy source, as the growth of the renewable energy sector threatens to dethrone some of the world’s energy giants. However, many oil and gas firms are likely to face strong opposition from governments and climate activists in the process, potentially driving some to look for innovative technologies to establish lower-carbon practices without giving up on oil.