據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2022年2月21日?qǐng)?bào)道，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟產(chǎn)油國(guó)1月份的減產(chǎn)大幅增加，這表明名義月度產(chǎn)量配額和實(shí)際市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)之間的差距繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大。 

一位歐佩克+聯(lián)盟消息人士周一對(duì)路透社表示，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟成員國(guó)1月份減產(chǎn)協(xié)議履行率為129%。 這一數(shù)字高于去年12月份的122%和11月份的117%。 

這名消息人士告訴路透社，去年1月份，歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)的減產(chǎn)協(xié)議履行率躍升至133%，而歐佩克+協(xié)議的非歐佩克成員國(guó)的總體履行率為123%。  

由于油價(jià)在地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)下的緊張市場(chǎng)中反彈，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的名義產(chǎn)量和實(shí)際產(chǎn)量之間的差距不斷擴(kuò)大，從而推動(dòng)油價(jià)走高。  

自去年8月以來(lái)，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟每次會(huì)議都宣布每月日增40萬(wàn)桶的名義產(chǎn)量，但實(shí)際上過(guò)去半年來(lái)，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟每月增加的市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)量都低于這一數(shù)字。

據(jù)國(guó)際能源署(IEA) 2月份石油市場(chǎng)月度報(bào)告估計(jì)，1月份歐佩克+聯(lián)盟產(chǎn)量與其目標(biāo)水平之間的差距高達(dá)90萬(wàn)桶/天。

“如果歐佩克+聯(lián)盟的產(chǎn)量與其目標(biāo)水平之間的缺口持續(xù)存在，供應(yīng)緊張將會(huì)加劇，增加更大的波動(dòng)性和價(jià)格上行壓力。 但如果中東地區(qū)產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩的產(chǎn)油國(guó)能夠彌補(bǔ)產(chǎn)能枯竭帶來(lái)的損失，這些具有廣泛經(jīng)濟(jì)影響的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能會(huì)降低。”  

上周，國(guó)際能源署署長(zhǎng)法提赫·比羅爾在一周內(nèi)兩次敦促歐佩克+聯(lián)盟縮小其生產(chǎn)配額和市場(chǎng)實(shí)際供應(yīng)之間不斷擴(kuò)大的差距。 

2月21日，包括沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克、科威特和阿聯(lián)酋在內(nèi)的中東最大產(chǎn)油國(guó)的能源部長(zhǎng)表示，盡管人們呼吁增加供應(yīng)以冷卻油價(jià)，歐佩克+聯(lián)盟應(yīng)該堅(jiān)持每月日增40萬(wàn)桶原油產(chǎn)量計(jì)劃。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

OPEC+ Underproduction Is Pushing Oil Prices Higher

The compliance of OPEC+ producers with their output cut surged in January, suggesting that the gap between nominal monthly output quotas and actual supply to the market continued to widen.

OPEC+ members complied with a massive 129 percent of the production cuts last month, an OPEC+ source told Reuters on Monday. That’s up from 122 percent compliance in December and a compliance rate of 117 percent in November.

In January 2021, OPEC producers’ compliance jumped to 133 percent, while the non-OPEC members of the OPEC+ pact had their overall compliance rate at 123 percent, the source told Reuters.

As oil prices rally in a tight market with a geopolitical risk premium, the widening gap between what OPEC+ has to produce on paper and the reality of oil output is pushing prices higher.

For half a year now, OPEC+ has actually added lower volumes to the market each month than the 400,000 bpd nominal monthly increase announced in each of the OPEC+ meetings since August 2021.

Estimates in the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil market report for February showed that the gap between OPEC+ production and its target levels surged to as much as 900,000 bpd in January.

“If the persistent gap between OPEC+ output and its target levels continues, supply tensions will rise, increasing the likelihood of more volatility and upward pressure on prices. But these risks, which have broad economic implications, could be reduced if producers in the Middle East with spare capacity were to compensate for those running out,” the IEA said.

Last week, the IEA’s executive director Fatih Birol urged OPEC+ twice in one week to narrow the widening gap between its production quotas and the much lower actual supply to the market.

On Sunday, the energy ministers of the biggest oil producers in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, said that OPEC+ should stick to the plan to raise production by 400,000 bpd each month despite calls to boost supply more to cool oil prices.