到2023年前，每桶100美元的油價(jià)可能引發(fā)美國(guó)致密油日產(chǎn)量增加220萬(wàn)桶  

美國(guó)的核心產(chǎn)油區(qū)(二疊紀(jì)、鷹福特、奈厄布拉勒、巴肯和阿納達(dá)科盆地)在去年第四季度的致密油日產(chǎn)量約為770萬(wàn)桶  

由于美國(guó)以外地區(qū)的供應(yīng)仍然緊張，高油價(jià)正在鼓勵(lì)運(yùn)營(yíng)商增加致密油產(chǎn)量 

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)報(bào)道，挪威著名能源研究和商業(yè)情報(bào)公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）2月14日預(yù)測(cè)，在需求增長(zhǎng)和供應(yīng)持續(xù)緊張的驅(qū)動(dòng)下，在油價(jià)維持在每桶100美元左右或以上的超級(jí)周期中，美國(guó)的致密油日產(chǎn)量有望增加多達(dá)220萬(wàn)桶。  

美國(guó)的核心產(chǎn)油區(qū)——二疊紀(jì)盆地、鷹福特盆地、奈厄布拉勒盆地、巴肯盆地和阿納達(dá)科盆地——在去年第四季度的致密油日產(chǎn)量約為770萬(wàn)桶，繼續(xù)呈上升趨勢(shì)，但仍低于疫情大流行前的水平。 預(yù)計(jì)到今年第二季度，這些核心產(chǎn)油區(qū)的致密油日產(chǎn)量將超過(guò)2019年810萬(wàn)桶的最高水平，如果出現(xiàn)超級(jí)周期，致密油產(chǎn)量將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。  

如果油價(jià)每桶達(dá)到并保持在100美元左右，到2023年第四季度，這些核心產(chǎn)油區(qū)的致密油日總產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到990萬(wàn)桶，比去年同期日增220萬(wàn)桶。

由于來(lái)自美國(guó)以外地區(qū)的供應(yīng)仍然緊張，高油價(jià)正在鼓勵(lì)運(yùn)營(yíng)商增加致密油產(chǎn)量。全球?qū)ovid-19的擔(dān)憂正在減弱，各國(guó)正在取消或放松限制，導(dǎo)致目前供應(yīng)難以滿足全球石油需求激增。 此外，主要石油出口國(guó)的地緣政治不確定性正在惡化，在供應(yīng)本已有限的情況下，有可能擾亂貿(mào)易流動(dòng)。

美國(guó)這些核心產(chǎn)油區(qū)的非常規(guī)油氣總產(chǎn)量(包括石油、天然氣和天然氣液體)已經(jīng)恢復(fù)到疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，去年第四季度的日總產(chǎn)量約為1560萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。非常規(guī)油氣日總產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)攀升，并在今年3月底達(dá)到1600萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量的歷史最高水平。  

“雖然高油價(jià)在理論上會(huì)引發(fā)致密油產(chǎn)量的激增，但嚴(yán)重的供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸、價(jià)格信號(hào)及其對(duì)生產(chǎn)的影響之間的滯后、以及冬季天氣造成的供應(yīng)中斷，致密油產(chǎn)量都將放緩增長(zhǎng)。 此外，預(yù)計(jì)現(xiàn)貨沙子價(jià)格將升至每噸50- 70美元，這是頁(yè)巖行業(yè)現(xiàn)代史上聞所未聞的水平，這將打擊運(yùn)營(yíng)商的錢(qián)包。”

檢查可能性

在不同的情景下，油價(jià)區(qū)間在每桶70美元至100美元之間，將導(dǎo)致今年第四季度產(chǎn)量大幅飆升，而長(zhǎng)時(shí)間運(yùn)行的每桶90 - 100美元會(huì)進(jìn)一步提高從今年第二季度起已經(jīng)恢復(fù)鉆機(jī)活動(dòng)。 在油價(jià)每桶40美元的情景下，到2024年前，產(chǎn)量將恢復(fù)到去年的水平。

展望2023年以后，每桶100美元的西得克薩斯中質(zhì)原油將使頁(yè)巖行業(yè)從去年第四季度到2025年第四季度年均日增長(zhǎng)約96萬(wàn)桶。 每桶70美元的油價(jià)仍將允許一個(gè)可持續(xù)的增長(zhǎng)周期，但平均年增長(zhǎng)速度將限制在約每天56萬(wàn)桶。  

在每桶100美元的情景下，在私營(yíng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商和公共獨(dú)立生產(chǎn)商的推動(dòng)下，將從今年第二季度開(kāi)始逐步部署更多的鉆機(jī)。 公共勘探和生產(chǎn)公司的經(jīng)營(yíng)理念正在發(fā)生根本性的轉(zhuǎn)變，許多公司響應(yīng)了全球增加致密油產(chǎn)量的號(hào)召。 埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龍公司最近就其雄心勃勃的二疊紀(jì)盆地增產(chǎn)計(jì)劃進(jìn)行了溝通，證實(shí)了這一趨勢(shì)。  

現(xiàn)在，二疊紀(jì)盆地和其他一些多產(chǎn)盆地發(fā)生了明顯的變化，行業(yè)情緒再次高漲。 各種各樣的供應(yīng)鏈瓶頸可能會(huì)推遲活動(dòng)的上升，但它們不會(huì)成為一個(gè)完全的障礙，因?yàn)轫?yè)巖行業(yè)已經(jīng)反復(fù)證明，所有這些瓶頸都會(huì)得到及時(shí)解決。

這些預(yù)測(cè)涵蓋了美國(guó)本土48個(gè)州(不包括墨西哥灣)核心致密產(chǎn)油區(qū)的非常規(guī)活動(dòng)。 至于美國(guó)大陸(不包括墨西哥灣)頁(yè)巖氣地區(qū)常規(guī)生產(chǎn)和凝析油的其它地區(qū)， 石油日產(chǎn)量最近穩(wěn)定在170萬(wàn)- 180萬(wàn)桶范圍內(nèi)。 在此情景下，疫情爆發(fā)前的美國(guó)大陸石油產(chǎn)量將有望在今年末或明年初達(dá)到峰值。  

在每桶70美元的情景下，美國(guó)大陸石油日供應(yīng)量到2025年底將趨于1200萬(wàn)桶，而如果油價(jià)持續(xù)保持在每桶100美元，美國(guó)大陸石油日產(chǎn)量將在未來(lái)4年里增長(zhǎng)至1350萬(wàn)桶。  

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

$100 Oil Could Trigger Burst In Shale Oil Production

·     Oil at $100 could trigger an additional 2.2 million bpd of US tight oil output by 2023.

·     Tight oil output in the core producing regions of the US – the Permian, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Bakken and Anadarko – in the fourth quarter of 2021 was around 7.7 million bpd.

·     High oil prices are encouraging operators to increase production as supply from sources outside the US remains tight.

Up to 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of US tight oil could be unleashed in the event of a supercycle – with oil prices remaining around or above $100 per barrel – driven by growing demand and continued supply tightness, Rystad Energy predicts.

Tight oil output in the core producing regions of the US – the Permian, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Bakken and Anadarko – in the fourth quarter of 2021 was around 7.7 million bpd, continuing an upward trend but short of the pre-pandemic levels. Production in these regions is expected to surpass the 2019 high of 8.1 million bpd by the second quarter of this year and expand further if a supercycle materializes.

If oil prices reach and remain around $100 per barrel, total production from these core regions would hit 9.9 million bpd by the fourth quarter of 2023, marking a 2.2 million bpd surge from the same quarter in 2021.

High oil prices are encouraging operators to increase production as supply from sources outside the US remains tight. Global Covid-19 concerns are waning and countries are removing or relaxing restrictions, causing a surge in demand for oil that the current supply would struggle to meet. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty in major exporting countries is worsening, threatening to disrupt trade flows amid already limited availability.

Total unconventional output – including oil, gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) – from these core US oil regions has already returned to pre-Covid-19 levels, totaling around 15.6 million boepd in the fourth quarter of 2021. Total output is expected to keep climbing and reach an all-time high of more than 16 million boepd by the end of March this year.

“Although high prices would, in theory, trigger a burst in tight oil production, acute supply chain bottlenecks, a lag between price signals and its impact on production, and winter weather-related disruptions will slow growth. Added to this are expectations that spot sand prices will rise to a $50-$70 per ton range – a level unheard of in the industry’s modern history – which will hit operators’ wallets,” says Artem Abramov, Rystad Energy’s head of shale research.

Examining the possibilities

Looking at different scenarios, a price range between $70 and $100 per barrel would lead to a significant upsurge in output in the fourth quarter of 2022, while a prolonged run of $90-$100 per barrel would result in a further increase to the already recovering rig activity from the second quarter of 2022. In a $40 scenario, production will return to 2021 levels by 2024.

Looking beyond 2023, $100 WTI will allow the industry to average at an annual growth of about 960,000 bpd, from the fourth quarter of 2021 through to the fourth quarter of 2025. A $70 world will still allow for a sustainable growth cycle, but the average annual pace will be limited to about 560,000 bpd.

In a $100 per barrel scenario, a gradual deployment of additional rigs would materialize from the second quarter of this year, driven by both private operators and public independent producers. A fundamental shift in the operational philosophy of public E&Ps is emerging, with many responding to a global call on tight oil growth. Recent communications from ExxonMobil and Chevron on their ambitious Permian growth plans reaffirms this trend.

There is a marked change happening now in the Permian and some other basins, with industry sentiment becoming buoyant again. Various supply chain bottlenecks might delay the uptick in activity, but they will not act as a complete showstopper as the industry has repeatedly demonstrated that all such bottlenecks get resolved in time.

These projections cover unconventional activity in core tight oil regions of all the lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico. For the rest of the lower 48 conventional production and condensate in shale gas regions, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, oil output has recently stabilized in the 1.7 million-1.8 million-bpd range and can even recover towards 1.9 million bpd over the next four years in a favorable price environment amid an increase in infill drilling in mature fields and a robust condensate production outlook in wet and liquids-rich parts of select gas basins. Against this backdrop, the pre-Covid-19 lower 48 oil production peak of 10.4 million bpd would be within reach already by late-2022 or early-2023.