據(jù)今日油價(jià)網(wǎng)站3月24日消息 英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》援引本周商品全球峰會(huì)上的觀點(diǎn)報(bào)道稱，一些全球大型石油交易商預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)將在今年年底前超過(guò)每桶200美元。

一位此前一直非常看好石油的發(fā)言人皮埃爾·安杜蘭德表示：“幾個(gè)月后我們不會(huì)恢復(fù)正常的業(yè)務(wù)，我認(rèn)為我們將永遠(yuǎn)失去歐洲方面的石油供應(yīng)。”

這位對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理本月早些時(shí)候首次做出每桶200美元的預(yù)測(cè)，稱從歐佩克+ 的非洲成員國(guó)到美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油地區(qū)的生產(chǎn)商將難以取代退出市場(chǎng)的原油。

RCMA集團(tuán)董事長(zhǎng)道格·金對(duì)英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》表示，原油價(jià)格可能突破200美元，到年底達(dá)到250美元。

道格·金在英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》峰會(huì)上表示：“這不是暫時(shí)的，這將是一次原油供應(yīng)沖擊。”

本月早些時(shí)候，有人預(yù)測(cè)布倫特原油到4月將達(dá)到200美元，但這似乎是對(duì)市場(chǎng)的反應(yīng)。目前最初的沖擊已經(jīng)消退，價(jià)格也從禁令后的高位下滑。然而，由于分析師認(rèn)為每天約有300萬(wàn)桶石油退出市場(chǎng)，上行潛力仍然很大。

據(jù)貿(mào)易行業(yè)稱，問(wèn)題在于這些石油不能輕易或迅速轉(zhuǎn)換。

渣打銀行石油和天然氣主管阿洛克·辛哈在英國(guó)《金融時(shí)報(bào)》峰會(huì)上表示：“考慮到目前的情況，我認(rèn)為這不是一個(gè)暫時(shí)的問(wèn)題。現(xiàn)在必須作為一個(gè)長(zhǎng)期問(wèn)題來(lái)處理，這意味著我們需要尋找替代供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)。”

王磊 摘譯自 今日油價(jià)

原文如下：

Top Oil Traders See Oil Topping $200 By End-2022

Some of the world’s biggest oil traders expect oil prices to exceed $200 per barrel by the end of the year, the Financial Times reported, citing opinions shared at its Commodity Global Summit this week.

“Wakey, wakey. We are not going back to normal business in a few months,” said Pierre Andurand, who has been super bullish on oil for a while. “I think we’re losing the supply on the European side forever.”

The hedge fund manager first made his $200-per-barrel forecast earlier this month, saying that producers ranging from African members of OPEC+ to the U.S. shale patch will struggle to replace the crude going off the market. 

Yet Andurand is neither the only superbull nor the biggest one. Doug King, the chairman of RCMA Group, told the FT that crude oil could top $200 and reach $250 by the end of the year.

“This is not transitory. This is going to be a crude supply shock,” King told the FT summit.

Earlier this month, there were forecasts that Brent crude would hit $200 by April, but that seems to have been a reaction to the ban oil and fuel imports. Now that initial shock has subsided—and so have prices slipped from the heights reached following the ban. However, the upside potential remains considerable as analysts see some 3 million barrels daily of Russian oil going off the market. 

The problem is that these barrels cannot be replaced either easily or swiftly, according to the trading industry.

“I don’t think given the way things are going, this is a temporary problem,” Alok Sinha, head of oil and gas at Standard Chartered told the FT summit. “You now have to deal with this as a long term issue which means you need to find alternative supply growth.”