據(jù)今日石油網(wǎng)2022年4月14日報道，美國地質(zhì)調(diào)查局曾在2000年估計，圭亞那-蘇里南盆地的石油儲量為136億桶，天然氣儲量為32萬億立方英尺，但后來的發(fā)現(xiàn)和調(diào)查所做的最新估計遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過了這些數(shù)字。 華盛頓卡內(nèi)基國際和平基金會非洲項目高級研究員、主任扎伊納布·烏斯曼博士說，基于此，圭亞那-蘇里南盆地是全球21世紀(jì)發(fā)現(xiàn)的擁有最大碳?xì)浠衔飪α康呐璧刂弧?/p>

其中，圭亞那近海的發(fā)現(xiàn)占了最大的份額。根據(jù)烏斯曼博士的預(yù)測，到2025年前，圭亞那的石油財富可能導(dǎo)致其人均石油收入超過卡塔爾、科威特和挪威。當(dāng)?shù)厣虡I(yè)發(fā)展中心(CLDB)最近發(fā)表的一份討論文件概述了這一遠(yuǎn)景。  

烏斯曼博士解釋了她的預(yù)測，通過提供一幅圭亞那的石油產(chǎn)量在頂級產(chǎn)油國中所處位置的圖片，奠定了這個基調(diào)。 她指出，2020年，圭亞那的平均油氣日產(chǎn)量為7.43萬桶油當(dāng)量，使該國成為全球第57大石油生產(chǎn)國。

當(dāng)圭亞那目前正在開發(fā)的項目進(jìn)入全面生產(chǎn)階段時，這位行業(yè)專家表示，到2025年前，圭亞那的石油日產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將達(dá)到75萬桶。 重要的是，她說，這將推動圭亞那在全球排名上升到第24位，超過阿塞拜疆的70.04萬桶/天。烏斯曼博士表示，根據(jù)財政體制的累進(jìn)性、全球油價，以及隨著企業(yè)繼續(xù)石油勘探活動，圭亞那深水石油發(fā)現(xiàn)量可能持續(xù)增加，碳?xì)浠衔飳⒃诔隹谑杖牒拓斦杖胫姓紦?jù)不成比例的巨大份額。

烏斯曼博士在討論文件中明確表示，據(jù)估計，2021年，來自初期項目的油氣資金流已占到出口總額的56%，到2050年，政府收入預(yù)計為500億-2000億美元。 2018年，圭亞那政府總收入為14億美元。由于圭亞那的非石油收入基數(shù)很小，因此碳?xì)浠衔锸杖雽⑹顾衅渌杖雭碓聪嘈我娊I，石油生產(chǎn)預(yù)計將在中期內(nèi)成為圭亞那經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的推動力。只有78.6萬人口的圭亞那將獲得較高的人均石油收入。  

換句話說，這位非洲經(jīng)濟(jì)政策、能源政策和新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體方面的專家斷言，圭亞那能夠生產(chǎn)大量石油，并為本國每個公民賺取大量收入。烏斯曼博士說，目前圭亞那每年的石油產(chǎn)量相當(dāng)于每個公民24桶左右。烏斯曼博士說，到2025年前，當(dāng)石油日產(chǎn)量達(dá)到75萬桶時，這可能相當(dāng)于每年每個公民238桶，比目前十大產(chǎn)油國的所有國家都要高。

她說：“到2025年前，圭亞那的人均石油收入可能超過富裕的海灣合作委員會(GCC)國家，如卡塔爾、巴林、科威特、阿曼和阿聯(lián)酋；歐洲的挪威； 以及非洲的加蓬和赤道幾內(nèi)亞。”

烏斯曼博士表示，“收入是否仍被隱藏，以及是否加劇了社會問題，取決于圭亞那的制衡機(jī)制。 但考慮到所有這些因素，她明確表示，圭亞那的巨額收入將對其經(jīng)濟(jì)、制度和社會產(chǎn)生決定性影響。” 

李峻 編譯自 今日石油網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Guyana’s oil earnings per capita by 2025 could exceed Qatar, Kuwait, and Norway- Expert

A United States Geological Survey estimated in the year 2000 that the Guyana-Suriname basin’s reserves stand at 13.6 billion barrels of oil and 32 trillion cubic feet of gas, but subsequent discoveries and surveys have taken updated estimates way beyond those numbers. On this basis, the basin represents one of the largest hydrocarbons finds of the 21st century, says Dr. Zainab Usman, a senior fellow, and director of the Africa Programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C.

The discoveries made offshore Guyana account for the lion’s share. By Dr. Usman’s projections, Guyana’s oil wealth could result in oil earnings that are beyond what Qatar, Kuwait, and Norway earn on a per capita basis by 2025. This perspective was outlined in a recently published discussion paper by the Centre for Local Business Development (CLDB).

Expounding on her forecast, Dr. Usman set the tone by providing a picture of where Guyana’s oil production places it among top producers. She noted that in 2020, Guyana produced an average of 74,300 barrels of oil equivalent daily, placing the country as the 57th largest oil producer globally.

When current projects in development enter the production phase, the industry expert said daily output is projected to reach 750,000 b/d by 2025. importantly, she said this will propel Guyana to the 24th place globally, above Azerbaijan’s 700,400 b/d. Depending on the progressivity of the fiscal regime, global oil prices, and the high likelihood that the country’s deepwater oil discoveries could keep growing as companies continue oil exploration, the expert said hydrocarbons will represent a disproportionately large share of export earnings and fiscal revenues.

She articulated in her discussion paper that these oil and gas financial flows from initial projects are already estimated at 56% of total exports in 2021 with government revenue estimated at US$50-US$200 billion through to 2050. “To put it in perspective, Guyana’s total government revenues were US$1.4 billion in 2018. Hydrocarbon revenues will thereby dwarf all other sources of revenue given the size of Guyana’s small non-oil revenue base, and oil production is expected to be the driver of economic growth in the medium term. With a small population size of 786,000 people, Guyana will earn high oil rents per capita,” Dr. Usman articulated.

In other words, the expert in economic policy, energy policy, and emerging economies in Africa asserted that Guyana is positioned to produce a lot of oil and earn a lot of revenue for each of its citizens. Currently, Dr. Usman said the country produces the equivalent of roughly 24 barrels per citizen every year. When output gets to 750,000 b/d by 2025, Dr. Usman said this could be the equivalent of 238 barrels per citizen for the year, higher than all of the current top 10 producers.

She said, “Ballpark estimates suggest that Guyana’s oil earnings per capita by 2025 could exceed those of the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and UAE; Norway in Europe; as well as Gabon and Equatorial Guinea in Africa.”

Whether revenues remain hidden and aggravate problems depend on Guyana’s mechanisms for checks and balances, the expert stated. But taking all these factors into consideration, she said in no uncertain terms that Guyana’s large revenue windfall will have a decisive impact on its economy, institutions, and society.