據美國鉆井網站2022年4月19日報道，國際能源署（IEA）4月19日表示，由于價格上漲和軍事沖突造成的市場供應中斷，今年全球對天然氣的需求將略有下降。

IEA在其最新季度數據中表示，今年全球天然氣需求預計將小幅萎縮，而在1月份公布的上季度數據中，IEA預計今年全球天然氣需求將增加1%。 

預估數量向下修正為1.765萬億立方英尺，大約相當于去年美國液化天然氣（LNG）出口量的一半。去年全球天然氣消費量增加4.5%。 

軍事沖突給本已吃緊的天然氣市場，尤其是歐洲的天然氣市場，增添了進一步的壓力和不確定性。 雖然目前歐盟還沒有進口天然氣的法律限制，但這場戰爭已促使歐盟各國政府尋求盡快減少對進口化石燃料的依賴。

3月3日，IEA發布了一份10點計劃，概述了一系列措施，旨在在一年內將歐洲的天然氣進口量減少三分之一以上，同時與歐盟的氣候雄心保持一致。

現貨天然氣價格已飆升至創紀錄高位，原因是歐洲推動天然氣供應更加多樣化，加大了對LNG貨物的需求，其中一些從亞洲轉移過來。2021-2022年供暖季期間，亞洲LNG現貨平均價格是5年平均價格的4倍多。

在歐洲，盡管冬季氣候溫和，但現貨LNG價格仍是5年平均水平的5倍。 

Sadamori說：“盡管隨著歐洲減少對天然氣的依賴，對LNG供應的激烈競爭已不可避免，但應對當今能源挑戰的最佳和最持久的解決方案將是加快各經濟體的能源效率提高，并加快從化石燃料向低碳能源的轉型， 包括國內生產的低碳氣體。”

能源生產大國是歐洲最大的天然氣供應國，去年滿足該地區33%的天然氣需求，高于2009年的25%。

今年歐洲的天然氣消費量預計將下降近6%。在亞洲，今年天然氣消費量預計將增加3%，比去年的7%明顯放緩。  

預計美洲、非洲和中東等地區受天然氣市場波動的直接影響較小，因為這些地區主要依賴國內天然氣生產。但他們仍然受到地緣政治軍事沖突帶來的更廣泛經濟影響的影響，包括大宗商品價格上漲、購買力下降，以及由于商業信心下降而導致的投資減少。  

李峻 編譯自 美國鉆井網站

原文如下：

Global Natural Gas Demand Set To Decline Slightly In 2022

The world’s demand for natural gas is set to decline slightly in 2022 due to higher prices and market disruptions , the International Energy Agency said.

In its latest quarterly update, IEA said that it expected a small contraction in global gas demand compared with its earlier forecast of 1 percent growth in the previous quarterly update published in January.

The downward revision to the forecast amounts to 1.765 trillion cubic feet, the equivalent of about half of last year’s U.S. LNG exports. Global natural gas consumption grew by 4.5 percent in 2021.

It has added further pressure and uncertainty to an already tight natural gas market, especially in Europe. While there are no legal restrictions on importing Russian natural gas to the European Union at this point, the war has pushed EU governments to seek to reduce their dependence on fossil fuel imports as quickly as possible.

The IEA published a 10-Point Plan on March 3 outlining a suite of measures to reduce the volume of gas imports into Europe by over a third within a year while remaining consistent with the EU’s climate ambitions.

Spot gas prices have soared to record highs as Europe’s push for a more diversified natural gas supply has intensified demand for LNG cargoes, with some being diverted away from Asia. Average spot LNG prices in Asia during the 2021-22 heating season were more than four times their five-year average.

In Europe, spot LNG prices were five times their five-year average, despite a mild winter. The prices were also boosted, to drastically reduce short-term gas sales to Europe, which had left European storage levels 17 percent below their five-year average at the start of the European heating season.

“While the stiffer competition for LNG supplies is inevitable as Europe reduces its reliance on Russian gas, the best and most lasting solution to today’s energy challenges would be to accelerate energy efficiency improvements across our economies and accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels towards low-carbon sources of energy, including domestically produced low-carbon gases,” Sadamori added.

It is Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, meeting 33 percent of the region’s demand in 2021, up from 25 percent in 2009. 

Natural gas consumption this year is expected to fall by close to 6 percent in Europe. In Asia, it is expected to grow by 3 percent in 2022, a marked slowdown from a growth of 7 percent in 2021.

Regions such as the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East are expected to be affected less directly by gas market volatility, as they principally rely on domestic gas production.

But they are nonetheless being affected by the wider economic impacts including rising commodity prices, weaker purchasing power, and lower investment due to dented business confidence.