據美國彭博新聞社2022年5月9日報道，石油巨頭正在迅速取得歷史性的巨額現金流，但這筆意外之財石油巨頭并沒有投資新的原油生產，以幫助取代生產大國的石油和天然氣。 相反，石油巨頭的高管們正在用這筆巨額現金獎勵股東們，這將為未來幾年全球能源市場更加緊張做好準備。

今年第一季度，西方5大石油公司共賺了366億美元，相當于每天約4億美元的剩余現金。這是有記錄以來第二高的季度自由現金流，足以使與生產大國相關的數十億美元減記淪為最近收益報告中的腳注。

石油繁榮通常會引發對更高產量的追逐，但這一次并非如此。這5大石油巨頭都嚴格控制資本支出預算，并承諾在未來幾年將保持這一紀律——盡管自2月爆發軍事沖突以來，油價除5天外一直都報收在每桶100美元以上。隨著井產量的逐年下降，以及大型項目需要5年或更長的時間才能投產，現在發生的任何擴張滯后都將推動新產量的可能性進一步推遲到來。

管理著3610億美元資產的全球資產管理巨頭Janus Henderson的首席能源分析師諾亞·巴雷特說：“在之前的高油價周期中，石油巨頭會大量投資于長周期深水項目，這些項目在許多年內都不會有產量。”“這類項目現在已經不在石油巨頭的考慮范圍之內。”

簡而言之，如果消費者急于尋找石油巨頭來取代大國的產量，他們最好把目光投向別處。

美國彭博新聞社匯編的統計數據顯示，在2013年原油價格每桶持續超過100美元時，石油巨頭的總資本支出為1587億美元，幾乎是目前支出的兩倍。這個石油巨頭集團包括殼牌公司、道達爾能源公司、英國石油公司、埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龍公司。

英國石油公司首席執行官伯納德·魯尼5月10日告訴分析師：“紀律是最重要的事。”這家總部位于倫敦的英國石油巨頭沒有改變其140億至150億美元的年度支出計劃，盡管其部分業務的成本上漲了10%，但其中期指導預算卻攀升至160億美元的上限。  

殼牌公司日前公布了創紀錄的利潤，甚至超過了分析師的最高預期。在擔任首席財務官后的第一份業績報告中，辛尼德·戈爾曼一次又一次地重申，殼牌公司將把資產規模控制在230億美元至270億美元之間。 她表示：“我們的資本配置框架沒有任何變化。” 

在經歷了多年的低回報后，石油巨頭選擇獎勵股東，而不是投資新項目。埃克森美孚公司、英國石油公司和道達爾能源公司增加了股票回購，而雪佛龍公司回購的股票數量已經達到創紀錄水平。

石油巨頭選擇不增加支出的原因很明顯。其中最主要的是氣候問題和對未來石油需求方向的不確定性。過去兩年，投資者、政界人士和氣候活動人士多年來施加的壓力達到了頂點，所有石油巨頭都承諾到本世紀中葉實現某種形式的凈零目標。英國石油公司和殼牌公司積極將自己定位于長期遠離石油和天然氣。它們都面臨著提高回報率的更大壓力。過去10年，由于成本井噴和價格低迷，回報率有所下降。

西班牙桑坦德銀行分析師杰森·肯尼表示：“現在任何增加、支持或增加新的化石燃料項目的決定都可能在未來幾年內帶來風險。”他說，氣候變化、電動汽車等技術的發展，以及政府排放政策的迅速變化，是目前決定是否向一個新項目投資數十億美元的主要風險。

國際能源論壇日前在一份報告中寫道，在這種背景下，2020年油氣上游行業的投資下降了30%，而去年的支出為3410億美元，比疫情前的水平低了23%。  

國際能源論壇秘書長Joseph McMonigle警告稱：“石油和天然氣開發領域連續兩年出現大規模突然投資不足，將導致21世紀20年代后期價格上漲和市場動蕩。”

這個信息并未得到全球消費者的認可。從巴基斯坦到巴黎，數十億人正在遭受生活成本危機，這在很大程度上是由于能源價格高企。在美國，政府日前懇求石油公司將油價飆升帶來的巨額利潤再投資到更多的油氣生產，以幫助緩解石油短缺。一些美國和歐洲政界人士呼吁對石油巨頭利潤征收暴利稅，以減輕消費者的負擔。

公平地說，這并不意味著石油巨頭根本不投資增長。但肯尼表示，石油巨頭將“只專注于那些低風險、高回報的資產”，如頁巖或擴大現有業務附近的海上油氣田。  

舉例來說，埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龍公司正在全球最大的頁巖油產區美國二疊紀盆地大舉投資增產，計劃增長率分別為25%和15%。英國石油公司將增加對美國頁巖的投資，但在年底前完成兩個大型集輸系統的建設之前，英國石油公司無法提高二疊紀盆地的產量。

然而，二疊紀盆地的產量增長將在很大程度上抵消美國石油巨頭全球投資組合的下降，而不是增加總產量數。埃克森美孚公司第一季度日產量為370萬桶，為上世紀90年代末合并以來的最低水平。 埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龍公司計劃今年在股票回購和股息分配上的支出，將超過他們在生產上的支出。

Janus Henderson的巴雷特表示：“長期以來，投資者和政界人士一直告訴石油行業，我們需要減少石油，高管們應記住這一點。”“如果世界需要每天增加100萬桶石油來緩解油價，我不確定這100萬桶石油將從哪里來。”

李峻 編譯自 美國彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Big Oil spends on investors, not output, prolonging crude crunch

Big Oil is raking in historic amounts of cash, but the windfall isn’t being invested in new production to help displace oil and gas. Instead, executives are rewarding shareholders -- setting the world up for an even tighter energy market in the years ahead.

The West’s five biggest oil companies together earned $36.6 billion over and above their spending in the first quarter, or about $400 million in spare cash a day. It was the second-highest quarterly free cash flow on record and enough to relegate billions of dollars of Russia-related writedowns to mere footnotes in their recent earnings reports.

Oil booms typically spark a chase for higher production -- but not this time. All five supermajors have kept their capital expenditure budgets firmly in check and pledged that this discipline will hold in future years -- even as oil prices have closed above $100 a barrel on all but five days since February. With wells naturally declining in production every year and large projects taking half a decade or more to come online, any expansion lag happening now will push the possibility of new production even further into the future.

“In prior cycles of high oil prices, the majors would be investing heavily in long-cycle deepwater projects that wouldn’t see production for many years,” said Noah Barrett, lead energy analyst at Janus Henderson, which manages $361 billion. “Those type of projects are just off the table right now.”

In short, if consumers are looking for Big Oil to replace production with any urgency, they better look elsewhere. 

The last time crude was consistently over $100 a barrel in 2013, Big Oil’s combined capital expenditure was $158.7 billion, almost double what the companies are currently spending, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The group includes Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE, BP Plc, Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. 

“Discipline is the order of the day,” BP Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney told analysts Tuesday. The London-based major isn’t budging on its $14 billion to $15 billion spending plans for the year, with its mid-term guidance creeping up to a maximum of $16 billion despite 10% cost inflation in some parts of its business.

Shell, which posted record profits that exceeded even the highest analyst estimate, was equally clear. In her first set of results as chief financial officer, Sinead Gorman repeated time and time again that Shell would keep within its $23 billion to $27 billion range. “Nothing has changed in terms of our capital allocation framework,” she said. 

Instead of spending on new projects, companies are opting to reward shareholders after years of poor returns. Exxon, BP and TotalEnergies increased share buybacks while Chevron is already repurchasing record amounts of stock. 

There are clear reasons why Big Oil is choosing not to spend more. Chief among them are climate concerns and uncertainty over the future direction of oil demand. Years of pressure from investors, politicians and climate activists came to a head in the past two years, when all the oil majors pledged some form of net zero target by mid-century. BP and Shell actively positioned themselves to move away from oil and gas over the long-term. All are under added pressure to improve returns that dwindled over the past decade due to cost blowouts and low prices. 

“Any decision to increase, support or add-in new fossil projects today could see returns risk within a few years,” said Banco Santander SA analyst Jason Kenney. Climate change, technology developments like electric cars and rapidly evolving government policy on emissions are major risks today when deciding whether to invest billions in a new project, he said.

Against that backdrop, investment in the upstream oil and gas sector slumped 30% in 2020, while last year’s spend of $341 billion was 23% below pre-pandemic levels, the International Energy Forum wrote in a report. 

“Two years in a row of large and abrupt underinvestment in oil and gas development is a recipe for higher prices and volatility later this decade,” warned Joseph McMonigle, Secretary General of the IEF.

That message has not gone down well with consumers around the globe. From Pakistan to Paris, billions of people are suffering a cost-of-living crisis fueled in large part by high energy costs. In the U.S., government has implored oil companies to reinvest profits from surging oil prices into more production to help ease the shortages. Some U.S. and European politicians have called for a windfall tax on companies’ profits to help ease the burden on consumers. 

To be fair, that doesn’t mean companies aren’t investing in growth at all. But they will “focus only on low risk, high return assets” such as shale or expanding offshore fields near existing operations, according to Kenney. 

Exxon and Chevron, for instance, are spending aggressively to grow production in the U.S.’s Permian Basin, the world largest shale oil region, with planned growth rates of 25% and 15%, respectively. BP is boosting investment in U.S. shale, but the company won’t be able to ramp up Permian production until it finishes building two large gathering systems at the end of the year.

However, most Permian growth will largely offset declines from elsewhere in the U.S. supermajors’ global portfolio, rather than adding to total barrels. Exxon’s first quarter production of 3.7 million barrels per day was the lowest since its merger with Mobil in the late 1990s. Together Exxon and Chevron plan to spend more on buybacks and dividends this year than they do on production. 

“For so long the industry has been told by investors and politicians we need less oil and executives remember that,” said Barrett of Janus Henderson. “If the world needs an extra million barrels a day to ease prices, I’m not sure where it will come from.”