美國(guó)能源信息署（EIA）在其最新一期的《短期能源展望》報(bào)告中預(yù)測(cè)，到明年年底前，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量將日增大約80萬(wàn)桶  

這可能會(huì)成為現(xiàn)實(shí)，但在本文作者目前所查看的數(shù)據(jù)中并不明顯  

在本文中，作者將使用EIA生成的數(shù)據(jù)，討論其最近在這些方面的研究結(jié)果

據(jù)美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)8月8日?qǐng)?bào)道，由于疫情對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的全面影響，在2020年3月結(jié)束的頁(yè)巖鉆井熱潮導(dǎo)致了原油庫(kù)存過(guò)剩，壓低了原油價(jià)格。在美國(guó)和全球供應(yīng)充足的情況下，原油現(xiàn)貨交割價(jià)格降至前所未有的水平。2020年4月，原油現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格首次出現(xiàn)負(fù)值。

由于經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇，原油庫(kù)存水平下降，在今年3月觸底，美國(guó)所有地區(qū)的原油庫(kù)存總量約為4.15億桶。 

在此期間，不僅庫(kù)存量下降，美國(guó)的原油產(chǎn)量也急劇下降，因?yàn)榈陀蛢r(jià)使鉆井活動(dòng)變得不經(jīng)濟(jì)。 米德蘭市郊區(qū)的閑置鉆機(jī)堆積如山，截至2020年6月，在用鉆機(jī)數(shù)量下降至252部。進(jìn)入第三季度，WTI價(jià)格突破每桶40美元，鉆機(jī)開(kāi)始恢復(fù)鉆井作業(yè)。 在2021/22年期間，由于WTI價(jià)格在每桶80美元—120美元之間，盡管鉆機(jī)日費(fèi)率仍然較低，但鉆井商開(kāi)始利用這一優(yōu)勢(shì)，新增了500多部鉆機(jī)，其中大約40%將在今年新增。這是一種并不經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)的組合。

地緣政治沖突爆發(fā)以后，油價(jià)突破每桶100美元，導(dǎo)致汽油和柴油價(jià)格飆升，消費(fèi)者在加油站遭受了巨大的痛苦。與此同時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和對(duì)疫情限制的放松導(dǎo)致旅行人數(shù)激增，無(wú)論是在公路上還是在空中。監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)和政界人士一直預(yù)計(jì)，石油公司將利用增加的收入，租用更多的鉆機(jī)來(lái)壓低油價(jià)。 

相反，現(xiàn)在更明智的頁(yè)巖鉆井公司采取了一種資本約束的做法，其目標(biāo)是在略有增長(zhǎng)傾向的情況下將產(chǎn)量維持在當(dāng)前水平。去年6月，在休斯敦舉行的JP摩根能源會(huì)議上，先鋒自然資源公司CEO謝菲爾德在《石油與天然氣雜志》的一篇文章中談到了這個(gè)問(wèn)題。  

謝菲爾德在6月22日的活動(dòng)上告訴與會(huì)者：“我們（先鋒自然資源公司）每年的資本支出只會(huì)增長(zhǎng)5%；每次會(huì)議都有人問(wèn)我這個(gè)問(wèn)題。”“我們不會(huì)增長(zhǎng)7%，8%，9%，10%或12%。”

謝菲爾德如是說(shuō)，并指出當(dāng)政府要求增加產(chǎn)量時(shí)，先鋒自然資源公司對(duì)政府說(shuō)了同樣的話。“我們也拒絕了他們，”謝菲爾德繼續(xù)說(shuō)道，“我們?cè)噲D讓他們理解這個(gè)模式，以及模式改變的原因。”他在討論過(guò)去的一個(gè)“繁榮—蕭條”周期模式時(shí)說(shuō)，在這個(gè)模式中，石油和天然氣行業(yè)通過(guò)提高產(chǎn)量來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)，最終導(dǎo)致供應(yīng)過(guò)剩。

其他CEO也做出了類似的評(píng)論，強(qiáng)調(diào)他們的資本配置重點(diǎn)不是產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)，而是資本回報(bào)給股東。 美國(guó)另一家大型頁(yè)巖鉆井公司德文能源公司也做出了同樣的承諾。德文能源公司首席執(zhí)行官里克·蒙克里夫在接受彭博社記者采訪時(shí)指出，該公司將繼續(xù)嚴(yán)格控制資本配置，今年的資本支出增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)為-5%。  

但外界對(duì)頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)的自然限制卻沒(méi)有引起太多關(guān)注。 在經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣的時(shí)候，頁(yè)巖鉆井公司會(huì)選擇開(kāi)發(fā)他們最好的地點(diǎn)，以確保回報(bào)的收入超過(guò)鉆井成本。

總而言之，按照2020年的預(yù)期速度，庫(kù)存規(guī)模相當(dāng)于18到25年的鉆井量。如果一級(jí)鉆井活動(dòng)恢復(fù)到2019年的創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，那么鷹福特和巴肯頁(yè)巖盆地的鉆井能力可以維持68年，DJ盆地和二疊紀(jì)盆地的鉆井能力可以維持11到15年。在二疊紀(jì)盆地，如果當(dāng)前的井距策略沒(méi)有改變，那么剩余的一級(jí)庫(kù)存的總規(guī)模約為33000個(gè)地點(diǎn)。

數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在過(guò)去一年的大部分時(shí)間里，美國(guó)所有關(guān)鍵盆地的產(chǎn)量都相對(duì)持平，尤其是2022年。由于墨西哥灣也包括在內(nèi)，一些天氣異常會(huì)暫時(shí)影響整體數(shù)據(jù)，冬季陸上生產(chǎn)也是如此。

根據(jù)EIA短期能源展望報(bào)告的建議，到明年年底，美國(guó)可能還會(huì)日增80萬(wàn)桶油當(dāng)量。 

這對(duì)油價(jià)的影響在短期內(nèi)仍不明朗，因?yàn)樵谶^(guò)去6周內(nèi)，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能衰退的擔(dān)憂已使WTI和布倫特原油的價(jià)格每桶下跌了大約20美元。從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，如果這種降低井產(chǎn)能的趨勢(shì)得到證實(shí)，由于頁(yè)巖產(chǎn)量的下降，我們可能會(huì)看到一個(gè)急劇的反轉(zhuǎn)。 

許多分析公司已把今年的退出價(jià)格目標(biāo)維持在當(dāng)前水平之上，高盛公司最為看好布倫特原油價(jià)格，認(rèn)為布倫特原油價(jià)格在每桶135美元。如果所有這些因素加在一起，消費(fèi)者的錢包可能會(huì)更痛苦，因?yàn)楣?yīng)緊張導(dǎo)致價(jià)格上漲。

李峻 編譯自 美國(guó)油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

How High Can U.S. Shale Production Climb?

? The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), has forecasted in their most recent edition of the Short Term Energy Outlook-STEO, a rise in U.S. production of about 800K BOEPD by the end of next year.

? This may well come to pass, but it is not evident in the data I’ve reviewed so far.

? In this article, I discuss the results of my recent research along these lines using EIA-generated data.

The shale drilling boom that ended in March of 2020, as the full effects of the pandemic hit the economy, contributed to a surplus of oil in storage that kept prices down. Richly supplied both in the U.S. and globally, the market took the spot delivery prices down to unprecedented levels. In April 2020, the spot price actually went negative for the first time ever.

As the economy recovered, inventory levels declined, bottoming out in March of this year, at about 415 mm bbls across all PADD districts.

Not only did storage decline, but U.S. production declined sharply in this period as the low prices made much of it uneconomic to drill. Rigs were stacked like cordwood in the outskirts of Midland, with the active rig count falling to 252 by June 2020. As we moved into the third quarter, WTI prices surpassed $40 and rigs began to go back to work. Over the course of 2021/22, another 500+ rigs were added with about 40% of that coming this year as drillers moved to take advantage of still low rig rates and WTI prices in the $80-$120 range. A combination that doesn’t often present itself.

The war sent oil above $100 per barrel, causing gasoline and diesel prices to soar and consumers to suffer a lot of pain at the pump. At the same time, the recovering economy and the loosening of Covid restrictions created a surge in travel, both on the open road and in the air. There has been an expectation from regulators and politicians that oil companies would take their increased revenues and hire more rigs to bring down prices. A practice that would have fit their former model of compound annual growth rate - CAGR, using borrowed capital, and nearly brought many of them to ruin in the years leading up to 2020. 

Instead, the shale drillers, now wiser, have adopted a practice of capital restraint that has the objective of maintaining production at current levels with a slight bias to growth. Attending the JP Morgan Energy Conference in Houston last June, Pioneer Natural Resources, (NYSE:PXD) CEO was quoted addressing this issue in an Oil and Gas Journal article.

“We’re [Pioneer] only going to grow 5% per year; I’ve been asked that in every meeting today,” Sheffield told attendees at the June 22 event. “We’re not going to grow 7, 8, 9, 10, 12%," he said, noting that the company told the Administration the same thing when asked to increase production. "We said no to them also," Sheffield continued. "We’re trying to get them to understand the model and the reasons the model changed," he said, in discussing a past model of boom-bust cycles in which the oil and gas industry responded by ramping up production that ended in oversupply.”

Other CEOs have made similar commentary, stressing that their priority for capital allocation is not production growth, but the return of capital to shareholders. Another large shale driller, Devon Energy, (NYSE:DVN) has made the same commitment. Devon CEO, Rick Muncrief noted in a Bloomberg interview that the company would continue to be disciplined in capital allocation with a growth target for 2022 of ~5%.

What hasn’t gotten a lot of attention is an external, natural limit to growth in shale production. Shale drillers in the lean times chose to develop their best locations to ensure payouts that would return more revenue than they cost to drill. (I discussed this trend in an earlier Oilprice article last May.) The industry calls these Tier I locations. The linked Rystad article notes the following in regard to remaining Tier I locations.

“Taken together, the inventory size corresponds to 18-25 years of drilling at the pace expected in 2020. If Tier 1 activity returns to the record level of 2019, then we can have six-eight years of drilling capacity in the Eagle Ford and Bakken, and 11-15 years in the DJ Basin and Permian. In the Permian Basin, the total size of the remaining Tier 1 inventory is about 33,000 locations, assuming there are no changes in the current well spacing strategies.”

The orange line, representing the Permian basin, follows the same trajectory, with daily production declining per well by about 120 bbl per day over this time.

What it shows is that across all key basins production has been relatively flat for most of the past year, and in particular for 2022. Since the Gulf of Mexico is included in this total there are some weather anomalies that can skew the overall data temporarily, with the same being true for onshore production in wintertime.

We may yet add another 800K BOEPD by the end of next year as the EIA Short Term Energy Outlook-STEO suggests we may. 

What this means for oil prices is yet unclear in the short term as for the last six weeks concerns about a possible recession have trimmed roughly $20 per barrel from the price of WTI and Brent. Longer term, if this trend toward lower well productivity bears out, we could see a sharp reversal higher, as shale output declines.

Many analyst firms have kept a YE-2022 exit price target above current levels, with Goldman Sachs the most bullish of all at $135 for Brent. If all of these things come together consumers could be in for more pain in the pocketbook, as tight supplies result in higher prices.