據天然氣資訊8月24日消息稱，數據與咨詢公司雷斯塔能源的研究顯示，隨著全球能源危機的加深和各國爭相獲取可靠的能源，對新液化天然氣基礎設施的投資將激增，到2024 年每年將達到420億美元。這些新建投資是2020年金額的200倍，當時由于疫情影響而對液化天然氣開發的投資僅為20億美元。然而，隨著各國政府逐步擺脫對化石燃料的依賴，并加快對低碳能源基礎設施的投資，預計2024年之后的項目審批將大幅減少。
天然氣是許多國家發電系統的核心組成部分，盡管各國決心減少對化石燃料的依賴，并向低碳電力結構過渡，但對液化天然氣的需求在短期內將會增長。從現在到2030年，全球天然氣需求預計將激增12.5%，從約4萬億立方米增至約4.5萬億立方米。雷斯塔能源表示，美洲的天然氣需求將在2030年之前保持相對平穩。相比之下，在強勁的經濟增長和各國政府的倡導天然氣推廣的政策支持下，亞太地區的天然氣需求將大幅增長30%，到2030年將從9000億立方米增長到約1.16萬億立方米。到2030年，以美國為主的美洲地區將占累計天然氣需求的30%，而亞太地區將占25%。
預計未來幾年液化天然氣總供應量將幾乎翻一番，從2021年的約3.8億噸/年增長到2030年的約6.36億噸/年，其中有幾個大型液化天然氣項目已經在建或正在建設中。預計2034年液化天然氣產量將達到7.05億噸/年的峰值。
曹海斌 摘譯自 天然氣資訊
原文如下：
Rystad Energy: Global LNG investments will peak at US$42 billion in 2024
As the global energy crisis deepens and countries scramble to secure reliable energy sources, investments in new LNG infrastructure are set to surge, reaching US$42 billion annually in 2024, Rystad Energy research shows. These greenfield investments are 200 times the amount in 2020 when just US$2 billion was invested in LNG developments due to the pandemic. However, project approvals after 2024 are forecast to fall off a cliff as governments transition away from fossil fuels and accelerate investments in low-carbon energy infrastructure.
Natural gas is a core component of many countries’ power generation systems and, although there is a determination to reduce fossil fuel dependency and transition to a low-carbon power mix, demand for LNG is set to grow over the short term. Global gas demand is expected to surge 12.5% between now and 2030, from approximately 4 trillion m3 to approximately 4.5 trillion m3. Gas demand in the Americas will remain relatively flat up to 2030, according to Rystad Energy. In contrast, on the back of strong economic growth and pro-gas policies from governments, regional demand in Asia and the Pacific will soar, growing 30% from approximately 900 billion m3 to approximately 1.16 trillion m3 by 2030. The Americas – primarily the US – will account for 30% of cumulative gas demand by 2030, while Asia-Pacific will account for 25%.
Helped by this new infrastructure, total LNG supply is expected to almost double in the coming years, growing from approximately 380 million tpy in 2021 to approximately 636 million tpy in 2030, with several major LNG projects already underway or in the pipeline. LNG production is predicted to peak at 705 million tpy in 2034.
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