據彭博新聞社2023年1月26日報道，埃克森美孚公司、雪佛龍公司、殼牌公司、道達爾能源公司和英國石油公司去年總共獲得近2000億美元的收入。然而，對經濟放緩、天然氣價格暴跌、成本通脹以及亞洲市場重新開放的不確定性的擔憂，使5大石油巨頭2023年收入增長前景變得黯淡。

2022年創紀錄利潤

這5大石油巨頭預計將在未來幾天內報告2022年的利潤總額將達到1987億美元。根據彭博新聞社匯編的統計數據，這比十多年前創下的年度紀錄還高出50%。

業內分析師表示，這5大石油巨頭過去12個月里金融海嘯期間所產生的利潤意味著，石油行業能夠維持股息增長和股票回購。對股東來說至關重要的是，隨著大宗商品的繁榮，管理團隊推遲了增加支出，這與之前的周期形成了鮮明對比。

相反，他們選擇償還債務并提高投資者回報：1月25日，雪佛龍公司宣布將回購750億美元的股票，此舉震驚了股東，這是雪佛龍公司目前年度回購支出的5倍。

匯豐控股有限公司歐洲石油和天然氣研究主管Kim Fustier說：“相對于2022年的創紀錄水平，大宗商品價格全面下跌，但看起來2023年仍將是利潤非常強勁的一年。”“就整體分配和股票回購而言，今年很可能是歷史上第二好的一年。”

雖然2022年第四季度獲得的利潤是歷史上最高的3個季度之一，但由于油氣價格下跌，利潤可能會下降。埃克森美孚公司和殼牌公司的產量指導顯示，煉油利潤率高于預期。

盡管能源價格大幅回落——目前原油和天然氣價格低于去年2月底時的價格——但這可能有助于將全球經濟和能源公司置于更為穩固的長期增長軌道上。較低的能源成本有助于緩解通脹，緩解各國央行繼續加息的壓力。

各大石油勘探公司全線都在集中精力將創紀錄的利潤返還給股東，同時控制支出。這一策略引發了從布魯塞爾到華盛頓的政客們的政治攻擊，他們希望增加供應以壓低價格。

自去年2月24日以來，盡管原油價格下跌了11%，但5大石油巨頭的股價至少上漲了18%。去年標準普爾500指數中表現最好的10家公司都是能源公司，埃克森美孚公司股價上漲了80%，是有記錄以來表現最好的一年。根據彭博社匯編的數據，盡管石油公司僅占該指數市值的5%，但其收益占該指數收益的10%左右。

管理著大約4000億美元資產的路博邁（Neuberger Berman Group LLC）高級分析師杰夫?威爾表示：“投資者被這石油行業目前所具備的許多特點所吸引。”“石油行業試圖成為一個增長型行業，但失敗了。石油行業將自己重塑為一個現金分配和收益游戲，在這種環境下很有吸引力。”

石油巨頭命運的關鍵在于，它們能否兌現去年在大宗商品價格持續數月上漲期間做出的對股東回報的承諾。

管理著大約2750億美元資產的駿利亨德森投資公司（Janus Henderson）首席能源分析師諾亞·巴雷特表示：“我預計石油公司將維持這些股東回報。在幾乎任何油價下，基本股息都非常安全，資產負債表狀況良好，我預計他們將繼續回購股票。”

對資本支出的反感仍在繼續

投資者也渴望聽到高管們堅守資本紀律的口頭禪。在過去10年的大部分時間里，支出的巨大增長侵蝕了股東回報，并使石油行業容易受到2016年和2020年油價暴跌的影響。

“目前石油公司仍不愿大幅增加資本支出，”威爾如是說，“石油公司過去一度遇到的問題是一次做太多的大型項目。現在石油公司更加專注這個問題。”

到目前為止，這種紀律似乎仍然有效。埃克森美孚公司和雪佛龍公司都提高了今年的支出目標。然而，這些增長主要是由通脹推動，而不是由長期增長項目推動。高盛集團在1月9日的一份報告中表示，盡管從2020年初到2022年年中，油價上漲了500%，但全球石油和天然氣的實際資本支出下降了。

在這個財報季里，企業高管們面臨的一個關鍵問題是，他們為歐洲的暴利稅預留了多少。埃克森美孚公司估計要支付20億美元暴利稅，但正在采取法律行動。殼牌公司表示，其2022年的暴利稅賬單可能總計24億美元。

1月早些時候，埃克森美孚公司表示，由于石油和天然氣價格下跌，該公司去年第四季度收益比前一季度減少了大約37億美元，但業內分析師指出，煉油利潤率遠高于預期。這家美國石油巨頭將于1月31日發布其2022年財報。

殼牌公司新任命的首席執行官Wael Sawan將主持他的第一次公司業績電話會議，殼牌公司還指出，煉油業務將更加強勁，并指出天然氣交易將出現反彈。道達爾能源公司在1月17日的一份聲明中指出了類似的趨勢。

李峻 編譯自 彭博新聞社

原文如下：

Major oil and gas players bring in $199 billion in 2022, expect stall in growth in 2023

Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Shell Plc, TotalEnergies SE and BP Plc reaped almost $200 billion collectively last year. However, fears of an economic slowdown, plunging natural gas prices, cost inflation and uncertainty over Asian re-opening are dimming the outlook for 2023.

Record-setting profit year in 2022

The five companies are expected to report $198.7 billion in combined 2022 profit in the next few days. This is 50% higher than the previous annual record set more than a decade ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The tsunami of cash generated by the group over the past 12 months means the industry can sustain dividend increases and share buybacks, analysts said. Crucially for shareholders, management teams held off on spending increases as commodities boomed, in stark contrast with previous cycles.

Instead, they opted to repay debt and swell investor returns: Chevron stunned shareholders with a $75 billion stock-repurchase announcement on Jan. 25, — five times the company’s current annual outlay for buybacks. 

“Commodity prices are down across the board relative to record 2022 levels, but it still looks like it’s going to be a very strong year,” said Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas research at HSBC Holdings Plc. “It could very well be the second-best year in history for overall distributions and share buybacks.”

Fourth-quarter earnings, while one of the three highest on record, will likely decrease from lower oil and gas prices. Guidance from Exxon and Shell suggest refining margins held up more than expected.

While the pullback in energy prices has been sharp — crude and gas are lower now than when the war in late February — it may help put the global economy and energy companies on a firmer long-term trajectory. Lower energy costs are helping take some of the sting out of inflation, easing pressure on central banks to carry on raising interest rates.

Across the board, the biggest oil explorers are focused on funneling record profits back to shareholders while keeping a check on spending. That strategy has provoked political attacks from Brussels to Washington D.C. by politicians wanting more supply to bring down prices.

Shares of the five supermajors are up at least 18% since the war an 11% drop in the price of crude. The top ten performers in the S&P 500 last year were all energy companies, with Exxon advancing 80% for its best annual performance on record. Oil companies now generate about 10% of the index’s earnings, despite making up just 5% of its market value, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“Investors are attracted to a lot of the characteristics this sector has to offer now,” said Jeff Wyll, a senior analyst at Neuberger Berman Group LLC, which manages about $400 billion. “It was trying to be a growth sector and that failed. It reinvented itself as a cash distribution and yield play, which is attractive in this environment.”

Key to the oil majors’ fortunes is whether they can stick to shareholder-return pledges made last year during the months-long run-up in commodity prices.

“I expect them to maintain those shareholder returns,” said Noah Barrett, lead energy analyst at Janus Henderson, which manages about $275 billion. “The base dividends are incredibly safe at almost any oil price, balance sheets are in good shape and I expect them to continue buying back shares.”

Aversions to capital spending continue

Investors are also keen to hear executives sticking to the mantra of capital discipline. It was the huge growth in spending over much of the last decade that eroded shareholder returns and left the sector vulnerable to oil crashes in 2016 and 2020.

“There is still an aversion to big capital expenditure increases, period,” Wyll said. “The problem the sector got into in the past is doing too many megaprojects at one time. Now it’s much more focused.”

So far that discipline appears to be holding. Exxon and Chevron both raised spending targets for this year. However, the increases were driven largely by inflation rather than ramping up long-term growth projects. Despite a 500% increase in oil prices from early 2020 to mid-2022, global oil and gas capital spending fell in real terms, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a Jan. 9 note.

One crucial question for executives this earnings season is how much they’re reserving for European windfall-profit taxes. Exxon estimated a $2 billion charge but is pursuing legal action. Shell says its 2022 bill may total $2.4 billion.

Earlier this month, Exxon indicated that fourth-quarter earnings took a hit of about $3.7 billion from weaker oil and gas prices compared with the previous quarter, but analysts noted that refining margins were much stronger than expected. The US oil giant reports on Jan. 31.

Shell, whose newly-appointed Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan will host his first earnings call, also noted stronger refining and pointed to a rebound in gas trading. TotalEnergies pointed to similar trends in a Jan. 17 statement.