煉油商正在投資柴油和可再生燃料等高價值餾分油，由于汽油需求下降，這些產品的利潤越來越高

由于得克薩斯州的頁巖革命放緩，美國留下了大量準備就緒、觀望等待的煉油產能

由于其成熟的煉油能力，美國有潛力成為全球可持續航空燃料和可再生柴油的主要出口國

據油價網2023年3月30日報道，沒有人知道未來十年究竟會有多少電動汽車上路，但有一件事是肯定的：數量肯定會很多。準確的普及速度取決于很多因素，從電動汽車成本的下降和技術的改進，到政策支持和對制造商和司機的激勵。我們所知道的是，要在本世紀中葉前實現凈零排放，到2030年前全球需要超過3億輛電動汽車，而且60%的新車銷售將必須是電動車型。

實際上，在美國，事實很可能會略低于這些數字。根據標普全球移動(S&P Global Mobility)的預測，到2030年前，美國的電動汽車銷量可能會達到乘用車總銷量的40%，更樂觀的預測是，到2030年前，電動汽車銷量將超過50%。雖然這并不能讓我們在2050年前實現零排放，但它標志著當前電動汽車市場的巨大擴張。根據國際能源署(International Energy Agency)公布的數據，美國(以及世界各地)的電動汽車銷量已經呈急劇上升趨勢，2020年至2021年期間銷量幾乎翻了一番。

由于需求從汽車燃料轉向電力，這種擴張將對能源經濟產生廣泛影響。這意味著，國內汽車燃料生產商要么進化，要么消亡。行業分析師預測，多數煉油商將選擇越來越多地將生產重點放在餾分油而非燃料上。更具體地說，他們正在尋求“最大限度地生產用于出口的柴油和生物燃料”。

特別是柴油，由于全球柴油庫存下降，需求飆升，柴油正變得越來越有吸引力。去年，柴油的利潤率達到每桶70美元以上的峰值，是同期汽油利潤率的兩倍多。當時，美國煉油廠每天出口157萬桶餾分燃料，創歷史新高。

自那個峰值以來，柴油市場已大幅降溫——目前餾分油利潤率約為每桶31.35美元——但利潤率仍接近5年平均水平的兩倍。據路透社報道，這將激勵政府加大對柴油生產(以及其他高價值餾分油)的投資，這將繼續影響未來幾年煉油行業的格局。

大多數行業專家認為，這種投資是一種比繼續投資汽油生產更安全的長期戰略。在美國，汽油需求已經滯后了相當長一段時間，因為汽油動力汽車的燃油效率提高了，路上行駛的電動汽車數量也迅速增加。另一方面，到2045年前，餾分油需求可能會繼續增長32%，主要是由于柴油和航空燃料需求的增加。

生物燃料和生物柴油的需求也在增長。煉油商也在順應這一趨勢。據路透社報道，“馬拉松石油公司和菲利普斯66等煉油商一直在改造煉油廠，以生產可再生柴油和可持續航空燃料等生物燃料。”

雖然美國在清潔能源支出和生產方面落后于世界上大多數最強大的經濟體，但在生物燃料出口方面，美國處于獨特的領先地位。隨著頁巖革命在得克薩斯州的放緩，美國已經準備好了大量的煉油產能，等待下一步的發展。這意味著美國可以在極短的時間內輕松成為世界上最大的可持續航空燃料和可再生柴油出口國。 

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Why U.S. Refiners Are Ramping Up Biofuel Production

·     Refiners are investing in high-value distillates such as diesel and renewable fuels, which are becoming more profitable as gasoline demand declines.

·     As the shale revolution has slowed down in Texas, the country is left with tons of refining capacity ready and waiting for the next step.

·     The U.S. has the potential to become a major exporter of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel thanks to its ready refining capacity.

No one knows exactly how many electric vehicles will hit the road in the coming decade, but one thing is certain: it’s going to be a lot. The precise rate of uptake depends on a lot of factors, from falling EV costs and improved technologies to policy support and incentives for manufacturers as well as drivers. What we do know is that reaching net zero emissions by mid-century will require an electric car fleet of over 300 million vehicles by 2030, and 60% of new car sales will have to be electric models. 

In reality, we’ll most likely fall a little short of those numbers in the United States. According to projections from S&P Global Mobility, electric vehicle sales in the United States could reach 40 percent of total passenger car sales by 2030, and more optimistic projections foresee electric vehicle sales surpassing 50 percent by 2030. While this won’t quite get us to net zero by 2050, it marks a huge expansion of the current EV market. Already, electric vehicle sales are on a sharp upward trend in the United States (and around the world), with sales nearly doubling between 2020 and 2021, according to figures from the International Energy Agency. 

This expansion is going to have widespread implications for the energy economy as demand shifts away from motor fuels toward electricity. This means that domestic motor fuel producers are going to have to evolve – or die. Industry analysts are predicting that most refiners will opt to increasingly focus their production on distillates rather than fuel, as traditional combustion engines begin to go the way of the dodo. More specifically, they are looking to “maximize diesel and biofuels production for exports.”

Diesel, in particular, is becoming more and more appealing, as global diesel inventories have declined and demand has spiked. Last year, diesel profit margins peaked at over $70 a barrel, more than double the profit margins of gasoline in the same time frame. At that time, United States refiners were exporting 1.57 million barrels per day of distillate fuel – an all-time record. 

The market for diesel has cooled considerably since that peak – distillate profit margins are now around $31.35 a barrel – but margins are still nearly double their five-year average. According to reporting from Reuters, this will incentivize increased investment into diesel production (as well as other high-value distillates) in the current term, which will continue to influence the shape of the refining industry for years to come. 

Most industry experts see this investment as a much safer long-term strategy than continuing to invest in gasoline production. Gasoline demand has already been lagging for quite some time now in the United States as fuel efficiency has increased in gas-powered cars, and the number of electric cars on the road has rapidly expanded. Distillate demand, on the other hand, will likely continue to grow 32% by 2045, mostly led by an increased need for both diesel and jet fuel. 

Demand for biofuel and biodiesel, too, is on a growth trajectory. Refiners are leaning into this trend as well. According to Reuters, “oil refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 have been retrofitting oil refineries to produce biofuels such as renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel.” 

While the United States is lagging behind most of the world’s strongest economies in terms of clean energy spending and production, it is uniquely positioned to lead the pack in terms of biofuels exports. As the shale revolution has slowed down in Texas, the country is left with tons of refining capacity ready and waiting for the next step. This means that the United States could easily become the world’s largest exporter of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel in a remarkably short time span.