各國政府激勵措施和能源安全問題再次推動了可再生能源的發展

雖然太陽能和風能產能的增長軌跡比核能和液化天然氣要陡峭得多，但能源需求也出現了極端的增長趨勢

據油價網2023年4月9日報道，風能和太陽能產能的增長速度正在超過液化天然氣和核能。殼牌公司最近的一份報告研究并比較了這四種能源形式的增長軌跡，它們都出現在過去60年里，并非常清楚地講述了全球能源部門是如何增長和變化的。簡而言之：我們最年輕、最清潔的能源技術是世界至少50年來發展最快的技術。

可再生能源正在蓬勃發展。它們不僅在成本上比主要化石燃料更具競爭力，而且在許多情況下更具有成本效益。除了成本下降之外，世界各國政府還越來越多地推出巨額激勵和補貼方案。在美國，政府最近通過了《通脹削減法》，提供數十億美元支持國內清潔能源部門的發展。該法案可能對真正降低通貨膨脹沒有什么作用，但它確實是美國國會有史以來通過的最大的一項氣候法案。在歐盟，領導層以一項名為REPowerEU的類似計劃作為回應。雖然補貼和稅收優惠，以及可再生能源技術的改進和規模經濟，極大地推動了太陽能和風能行業的發展，但可再生能源的快速增長越來越多地與能源安全問題相關。地緣政治沖突引發的近期(且持續的)能源危機在全球能源市場掀起波瀾，令全球領導人心驚膽戰。其結果是，政府瘋狂地以盡可能快的速度、最大程度地提高國內能源生產能力。

在歐洲，這導致了太陽能發電的破紀錄增長。去年，太陽能和風能在歐洲生產了更多的能源和天然氣，這在歷史上還是第一次。根據《歐洲電力評論》今年發布的數據，去年，太陽能和風能占歐洲能源的五分之一以上(22%)，剛剛超過天然氣在歐洲能源中的占比。

殼牌公司從這些發電能源開始對全球能源結構作出有意義貢獻的時候就開始觀察衡量它們的增長態勢。衡量標準是指任何一種能源每年至少貢獻1艾焦耳(大約是墨西哥一年的能源使用量)。這使得比較很容易，例如，太陽能和核能，通過觀察它們的增長率在達到首個1艾焦耳的次年情況，在過去3年中的正面交鋒情況等等。

從這一對比中，可以看到可再生能源的驚人增長，但我們也可以看到另一個趨勢，這讓情況變得有點復雜。雖然太陽能和風能的增長軌跡比核能和液化天然氣要陡峭得多，但能源需求也出現了極端的增長趨勢。“自核能達到1艾焦耳大關以來的50年里，全球能源消耗增加了一倍多，”彭博新聞社報道說，“1973年，全世界消耗了238艾焦耳的能源；在2021年，全世界消耗了595艾焦耳的能源。”出于這個原因，盡管風能和太陽能的增長速度超過了那些較老的技術，但它們對全球能源結構的貢獻總體上仍然較小。

這對這些新興技術對全球能源結構及其相關碳足跡的影響有重大影響：“在核能首次作為重要能源貢獻者出現的那一年，它提供了全球使用能源的0.4%左右。當液化天然氣達到1艾焦耳時，它提供了大約0.3%。到2016年，當太陽能提供了首個1億焦耳時，它只滿足了全球大幅增長的能源需求的不到0.2%。”僅在今年，全球太陽能發電裝機容量就已達到316吉瓦，前景十分樂觀。許多人認為清潔能源革命才剛剛真正開始，現在開始還不晚。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Shell: Solar And Wind Are Growing Faster Than LNG Ever Did

·     Shell: Wind and solar production capacities are growing faster than liquefied natural gas and nuclear ever did.

·     Government incentives and energy security issues have given renewables another bump.

·     While solar and wind are seeing a much steeper growth trajectory than nuclear and liquefied natural gas did, energy demand, too, has seen an extreme growth trend.

Wind and solar production capacities are growing faster than liquefied natural gas and nuclear ever did. A recent report from Shell Plc examined and compared the growth trajectories of these four energy forms, which have all emerged within the past 60 years, and which tell a very clear story about how the global energy sector is growing and changing. Put simply: our youngest and cleanest energy technologies are the fastest growing the world has seen in at least 50 years. 

Renewables are taking off. Not only have they become cost-competitive with major fossil fuels, in many cases they are more cost effective. And on top of these dropping costs, governments around the world are increasingly sweetening the deal with hefty incentive and subsidies packages. In the United States, the Administration recently passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which offers billions of dollars to support the growth of the domestic clean energy sector. The Act may not do a damn thing to actually reduce inflation, but it does stand as the single-biggest climate bill ever passed by U.S. Congress. In the European Union, leadership has responded with a comparable plan called REPowerEU. While subsidies and tax breaks, along with improved renewable energy technologies and economies of scale, have given a massive boost to the solar and wind power sectors, the breakneck growth of renewable energies is increasingly related to issues of energy security. The recent (and ongoing) energy crisis emanating from the war has made waves in energy markets around the world, spooking global leaders. The result has been a mad dash to shore up domestic energy production capacity to the greatest extent possible, as quickly as possible. 

In Europe, this has led to record-breaking addition of solar power. And last year, for the first time in history, solar and wind power produced more energy and natural gas in Europe. According to figures released this year by the European Electricity Review, solar and wind accounted for more than a fifth (22%) European energy in 2022, just edging out natural gas at 20%.

Shell measures the growth of these power sectors from a baseline of when they began to contribute meaningfully to the global energy mix. This bar is set at when any certain energy source contributes at least one exajoule per year (about the annual energy use of Mexico). This makes it easy to compare, for example, solar and nuclear head-to-head, by seeing where their growth rate is at one year past first exajoule, three years past, etc.

From this comparison we can see the striking growth of renewables, but we can also see another trend, which complicates the picture a bit. While solar and wind are seeing a much steeper growth trajectory than nuclear and liquefied natural gas did, energy demand, too, has seen an extreme growth trend. “Global energy consumption has more than doubled in the 50 years since nuclear reached the 1 exajoule mark.,” reports Bloomberg. “In 1973, the world consumed 238 exajoules of energy; in 2021, it consumed 595.” For this reason, although wind and solar are outpacing those older technologies, they are overall contributing less to the global energy mix. 

This has major implications for how much of an impact these nascent technologies have had on the global energy mix and its associated carbon footprint: “In the year that nuclear first appears as a significant energy contributor, it supplied about 0.4% of the energy the world used. By the time that LNG hit an exajoule, it provided about 0.3%. By 2016, when solar provided its first exajoule, it met less than 0.2% of much-increased global energy demand.” 316 gigawatts of solar power are already slated to be added to the global fleet this year alone, and the prognosis is promising. Many feel that the clean energy revolution is just now starting in earnest. And it’s not a moment too late.