挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司Rystad：到2030年前，全球電池儲能裝機容量將超過400吉瓦時

政府政策在激勵投資和電池存儲容量擴張方面發揮著重要作用

到2030年前，電池儲能市場年安裝量將達到110吉瓦，其中58%將在亞洲開發

據油價網2023年6月14日報道，電池儲能應用的時代可能才剛剛開始，但隨著儲能成為世界能源格局的關鍵，未來幾年每年的裝機容量增加將像滾雪球一樣。挪威著名能源研究和商業情報公司Rystad的模型預測，到2030年前，每年的電池儲能裝機容量將超過400吉瓦時，相當于目前每年新增裝機容量的10倍。

電池儲能系統(BESS)是一種相互連接的電池配置，旨在存儲多余電能并將其釋放以滿足即將到來的需求。因此，BESS為解決電力間歇性問題提供了切實可行的解決方案。隨著世界向太陽能光伏和風能等更環保發電方式過渡，電池儲能發展將成為滿足未來能源需求的關鍵。

去年，全球BESS裝機容量比前一年增加了60%，新安裝總量超過43吉瓦時。今年將再增加74吉瓦時，增幅達72%，這主要是由于BESS的成本降低、北美的激勵措施、歐洲的政府資助計劃，以及亞洲大陸可再生能源產能的強勁擴張。

“假設目前的政策情景不變，我們預計到2030年前年安裝總量將超過400吉瓦時，注意吉瓦時（GWh）指的是能源單位，而吉瓦(GW)是電力單位。這意味著到2030年前新增裝機容量約為110吉瓦，幾乎相當于法國和德國住宅用電量峰值的總和。這一預測總體上符合我們的氣候變化情景，符合1.9攝氏度的碳預算。”  

Rystad儲能分析師塞佩爾·索爾塔尼說：“電池將在未來能源生產和電力需求中發揮基礎性作用，解決可再生能源發電的間歇性問題。為了減少對煤炭和天然氣作為備用發電來源的依賴，各國現在必須投資BESS。”

政府政策在激勵投資和擴大產能方面發揮著重要作用。去年美國的《通脹削減法案》促進了可再生能源和清潔技術的擴張，將太陽能和陸上風能的預期裝機容量提高了40%，與該法案出臺之前相比，預計將增加超過20吉瓦的電池容量。因此，到2030年前，美國電池容量將超過130吉瓦。

歐洲綠色交易工業計劃旨在加速歐洲向可持續和低碳工業部門的轉型，除了為BESS開發商提供當地資金外，還逐步支持BESS的發展——例如，英國有一個3200萬英鎊的儲能資金計劃。亞洲大國致力于到2030年前達到排放峰值，并將電池的發展視為實現這一目標的手段。未來幾年，該國清潔能源發展將加速，可再生能源在其電力結構中的份額將增加。

需要強調的是，該國煤炭產能擴張的主要目標是解決能源安全問題，為國內電力行業提供足夠的靈活性，以緩解未來的能源危機。因此，當裝機容量的增加不能立即轉化為發電量的增加時，就會出現這種情況。 自2010年以來，該國平均煤炭產能系數一直在穩步下降。與此同時，該國太陽能和電池生產能力已經成熟，預計將繼續投資于本地供應鏈擴張，以滿足國內需求，并在全球低碳能源價值鏈上發揮自身在出口市場上的作用。

到2030年前，BESS市場年裝機量將達到110吉瓦，其中58%將在亞洲開發。北美將占約20吉瓦，歐洲將安裝18吉瓦，其余8吉瓦來自世界其他地區。這是目前趨勢的轉變，因為預計到2023年底的裝機量將由北美主導，北美將占BESS總裝機容量的45%。

為了解決國家和地區電網的電力安全問題，需要公用事業規模的電池儲能。微電網——自給自足的地方電網——將變得更加普遍，分布式發電將占據主導地位，因為太陽能和風能等初級能源并不局限于特定的國家或地區。

大部分新增產能將在公用事業層面，但住宅開發也至關重要。消費者電價將在短期內推動獨立式BESS增長，住宅電池安裝將隨著屋頂太陽能光伏的采用而增長。擁有高效且價格合理太陽能生產的國家將成為銜接住宅電池系統的先驅。

住宅市場在全球范圍內落后于公用事業領域，但我們預計這種情況將會改變。我們預計住宅采用將同步增長，并增加10倍，到2030年前將超過41吉瓦時的電池需求。歐洲人是在家中使用BESS的先驅，因為稅收抵免和高峰時段的高電價激勵了消費者。

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

Rystad Sees Major Jump In Battery Storage Capacity Through 2030

·     Rystad: Global battery storage installation capacity will surpass 400GWh by 2030.

·     Government policies are playing an important role in incentivizing investments and battery storage capacity expansion.

·     By 2030, annual Battery energy storage market installations will hit 110 GW, 58% of which will be developed in Asia.

The era of battery energy storage applications may just be beginning, but annual capacity additions will snowball in the coming years as storage becomes crucial to the world’s energy landscape. Rystad Energy modeling projects that annual battery storage installations will surpass 400 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by 2030, representing a ten-fold increase in current yearly additions. 

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are a configuration of interconnected batteries designed to store a surplus of electrical energy and release it for upcoming demand. Consequently, BESS offers practical solutions for addressing power intermittency challenges. As the world transitions to greener sources of power generation such as solar PV and wind, battery energy storage developments will be critical in meeting future energy demand. 

Global BESS capacity additions expanded 60% in 2022 over the previous year, with total new installations exceeding 43 GWh. A further 74 GWh will be added this year – a 72% increase – primarily driven by cost reduction in BESS systems in addition to incentives in North America, governmental funding programs in Europe, coupled with robust renewable capacity expansion in mainland of Asia.

Assuming a status-quo policy scenario, we project annual installations will surpass 400 GWh by 2030, noting that GWh refers to the energy units, while gigawatts (GW) is the unit of power. This correlates to capacity additions of about 110 GW by 2030 on a power basis, almost equivalent to the peak residential power consumption for France and Germany combined. This projection is generally aligned with our climate change scenario compliant with 1.9-degree Celsius carbon budget.

“Batteries will play a fundamental role in the future of energy production and power demand, solving the intermittency problem of renewable energy generation. To decrease reliance on coal and gas as back-up power generation sources, countries must invest in BESS now,” says Sepehr Soltani, energy storage analyst at Rystad Energy.

Government policies are playing an important role in incentivizing investments and capacity expansion. Last year’s US Inflation Reduction Act has catalyzed renewable and clean tech expansion, boosting expected solar and onshore wind capacity by 40% and expecting to add more than 20 GW battery capacity compared to before the Act. As result, the US battery capacity will exceed 130 GW by 2030.

The European Green Deal Industrial Plan aims to accelerate the transition to a sustainable and low-carbon industrial sector in Europe, and gradually supports the BESS development in addition to the local fundings for BESS developers – for example, a ￡32 million energy storage funding program in the UK.The biggest country in Asia is committed to peaking its emissions by 2030 and sees battery developments as a steppingstone to achieving that goal. The country’s clean energy development will accelerate in the coming years, increasing the share of renewables in its power mix. 

It is relevant to emphasize that The biggest country in Asia's coal capacity expansion primarily targets addressing energy security concerns providing the domestic power sector with sufficient flexibility to mitigate future energy crises. Hence, this is the case when an increase in capacity does not translate into immediate increase in generation. Average coal capacity factors in the biggest country in Asia have been declining steadily since 2010. Meanwhile, the country has matured its solar and battery production capacity and is expected to continue investing in local supply chain expansion to deliver on both domestic demand and the role it plays in the global export market across the low-carbon energy value chain.

By 2030, annual BESS market installation will hit 110 GW, 58% of which will be developed in Asia. North America will account for about 20 GW and Europe will have 18 GW installed, with the remaining 8 GW from the rest of the world. This is a shift from current trends, as the projected installation at the end of 2023 is expected to be dominated by North America, which will account for 45% of total BESS capacity.

Utility scale battery storage is required to address power security concerns in national and regional electricity grids. Microgrids – self-contained, local power grids – will become more prevalent and distributed power generation is set to dominate as primary energy sources such as solar and wind are not limited to specific countries or regions.

Most capacity additions will be at the utility level, but residential developments are also critical. Consumer power prices will drive standalone BESS growth in the short term, with residential battery installations set to grow alongside rooftop solar PV adoption. Countries with efficient and affordable solar energy production will emerge as pioneers in coupled-residential battery systems.

The residential market is lagging the utility segment globally, but we expect that to change. We expect residential adoption to grow in parallel and increase ten-fold, surpassing 41 GWh battery demand by 2030. Europeans are pioneers in utilizing BESS in their homes, as tax credits and high-power prices during peak periods have motivated consumers.