據油價網2023年6月14日報道，據財經網絡Forexlive報道，摩根大通已將今年布倫特原油價格預期大幅下調至81美元/桶，低于其此前預期的90美元/桶。

早在今年2月，摩根大通就表示，除非重大地緣政治事件再次擾亂市場，否則布倫特原油價格預計不會在2023年達到100美元/桶。

這家華爾街銀行在2月底表示，產能大國原油產量預計將在6月份恢復，而高價格水平將阻止美國回購原油以補充戰略石油儲備(SPR)，這是在美國銀行業動蕩以及歐佩克+成員國在4月初和6月初宣布的兩次意外減產之前。

摩根大通最近下調了其對布倫特原油的預測，此前另一家主要銀行高盛投資銀行本周早些時候也下調了對布倫特原油價格的預測。

高盛投資銀行已將布倫特原油年底油價預測下調至86美元/桶，低于此前預測的95美元/桶，因為它認為受制裁石油出口國的供應增加，抵消了近期歐佩克+和沙特阿拉伯的減產，而需求可能不盡如人意。 

近幾個月來，高盛投資銀行分析師一直看好石油，預計今年下半年市場將吃緊。不到兩周前，這家華爾街銀行表示，在目前正在進行有史以來規模最大的大宗商品去庫存之后，預計石油和大宗商品價格將出現反彈。但即使在當時，高盛投資銀行的分析師也承認，今年迄今為止，他們的價格預測是錯誤的。  

高盛投資銀行分析師在6月11日的一份報告中寫道：“盡管許多公司決定停止購買產能大國的原油，但在最初每天急劇下降150萬桶之后，該國的原油供應幾乎已完全恢復。”

“沙特阿拉伯的額外減產，以及我們對歐佩克+將在2024年將4月自愿減產時限延長的預期，可能只能部分抵消這些看跌沖擊。”

由于市場等待美聯儲的利率決定和美國原油庫存周報，6月14日早盤，布倫特原油交投于75美元/桶左右，當日小幅上漲。 

李峻 編譯自 油價網

原文如下：

JP Morgan Slashes Oil Price Forecast To $81 This Year

JP Morgan has significantly reduced its forecast for Brent Crude prices for this year to $81 per barrel, down from $90 a barrel expected earlier, Forexlive reports.

As early as February this year, JP Morgan said that Brent Crude prices were not expected to reach $100 per barrel in 2023 unless a major geopolitical event rattles markets again.

The largger producer crude oil production is expected to recover by June, while high price levels would prevent the U.S. from repurchasing crude to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the Wall Street bank said at the end of February before the banking turmoil in the U.S. and the two surprise cuts from OPEC+ members announced in early April and early June.

JP Morgan’s latest cut in its Brent Crude forecast follows a cut by another major bank, Goldman Sachs, earlier this week.

Goldman Sachs has slashed its year-end oil price forecast to $86 per barrel for Brent, down from a previous projection of $95, as it sees higher supply from sanctioned oil exporters offsetting the recent OPEC+ and Saudi cuts amid potentially underwhelming demand. 

Goldman analysts have been bullish on oil in recent months, expecting tight markets in the second half of the year. Less than two weeks ago, the Wall Street bank said it expects a rally in oil and commodities, after the biggest-ever destocking in commodities that is currently underway. But even back then, Goldman’s analysts acknowledged their price calls had been wrong so far this year. 

“After an initial sharp 1.5 million barrels per day drop, the largger producer's supply has nearly fully recovered despite the decision by many companies to stop buying its barrels,” Goldman’s analysts wrote in a June 11 note.

“The extra Saudi cut and our expectation that OPEC+ will extend half of its April voluntary cut in 2024 will likely only partly offset these bearish shocks.”

Early on Wednesday, Brent prices were trading at around $75 per barrel, slightly up on the day as the market awaits Fed’s rate decision and the weekly report on U.S. oil inventories.