據今日石油網2023年7月24日報道，挪威咨詢公司雷斯塔能源（Rystad）稱，拉丁美洲、中東和北海將成為下一波全球上游油氣投資的關鍵地區。Rystad的研究強調，全球范圍內這些投資大幅增加，預計今年全球上游油氣支出將達到大約5700億美元，比去年的水平增加1400億美元。

Rystad供應鏈研究主管Audun Martinsen強調，這一投資激增僅僅是第一波，由各國尋求可靠、負擔得起和可持續的能源推動。隨著能源轉型的推進，以及對低碳電力的強烈關注，這一投資激增勢頭可能會加速，這就需要在國家和區域市場上擴大供應鏈。

盡管去年年初的初步預測估計全球上游投資到年底將達到4700億美元，但地緣政治沖突極大地改變了Rystad預測的前景。對能源出口實施制裁，再加上能源價格和通脹不斷上漲，在全球能源市場引發了破壞性的連鎖反應。因此，修正后的估計比最初的預測增加了1000億美元。

值得注意的是，主要在北美和中東地區，油田服務的價值和利用率正在達到歷史最高水平，預計在可預見的未來油服市場仍將保持緊張狀態。然而，最顯著的海上市場增長預計將來自拉丁美洲、中東和北海。這些地區海上活動的增加需要船只、鉆機、建筑和海底基礎設施的激增。

預計拉丁美洲也將在蓬勃發展的海上風電市場中發揮關鍵作用，到2030年前，這個風電市場與碳捕獲、利用和封存(CCUS)的投資預計將占全球所有海上投資的近一半。

李峻 譯自 今日石油網

原文如下：

Latin America a key driver in global upstream oil and gas investments: Rystad Energy

Latin America, along with the Middle East and North Sea, is set to be a pivotal region for the next wave of global upstream oil and gas investments, according to Rystad Energy. The study underlines a significant surge in these investments worldwide, with global upstream expenditure expected to reach around US$570 billion this year, an increase of US$140 billion from 2022 levels. 

Audun Martinsen, Head of Supply Chain Research at Rystad Energy, highlighted that this surge in investments is merely the first wave, fuelled by countries seeking reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy sources. As the energy transition advances, with a keen focus on low-carbon power, the momentum will likely accelerate, necessitating supply chain expansion in national and regional markets.

Despite an initial forecast in early 2022 estimating global upstream investments to reach US$470 billion by the end of the year, the unexpected conflict between

The war drastically reshaped Rystad Energy’s outlook. The imposition of sanctions on energy exports, coupled with escalating energy prices and inflation, sparked a disruptive ripple effect across global energy markets. As a result, the revised estimation jumped US$100 billion over the initial forecast.

Notably, the value and utilisation of oilfield services, primarily in North America and the Middle East, are reaching record levels and are predicted to remain tight for the foreseeable future. However, the most significant offshore market growth is anticipated to come from Latin America, the Middle East, and the North Sea. Increased offshore activity in these regions necessitates a surge in vessels, rigs, construction, and subsea infrastructure.

Latin America is also expected to play a crucial role in the burgeoning offshore wind market, which, along with carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS), is projected to constitute nearly half of all offshore investments by 2030.