據(jù)彭博社7月25日報(bào)道，據(jù)彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)（BNEF）的一份報(bào)告顯示，日本實(shí)現(xiàn)2030年減排和實(shí)現(xiàn)中期凈零排放目標(biāo)的最經(jīng)濟(jì)方式是部署成熟的清潔技術(shù)，如風(fēng)能、太陽能發(fā)電和電動(dòng)汽車。

該分析與日本制定的轉(zhuǎn)型路徑形成對比，該路徑可能會(huì)延長燃煤和燃?xì)獍l(fā)電設(shè)施的使用壽命，通過氨和氫氣混合燃燒來捕獲排放物。

日本的氣候轉(zhuǎn)型政策使其成為七國集團(tuán)(G7)中的異類，其他國家大多正在轉(zhuǎn)向清潔能源，遠(yuǎn)離產(chǎn)生二氧化碳和甲烷排放的化石燃料，這些排放導(dǎo)致地球變暖。彭博和綠色金融系統(tǒng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)編制的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，與2030年實(shí)現(xiàn)碳減排和2050年實(shí)現(xiàn)凈零排放所需的努力相比，日本當(dāng)前的減排軌跡偏離得最遠(yuǎn)。

根據(jù)BNEF周二發(fā)布的《日本新能源展望》報(bào)告，日本在2010年至2022年間在化石燃料進(jìn)口上花費(fèi)了1.8萬億美元，相當(dāng)于該國年均GDP的3%以上。

分析師David Kang在報(bào)告中表示：“如果日本可以將部分支出轉(zhuǎn)向成熟的清潔技術(shù)，如太陽能、風(fēng)能和電動(dòng)汽車的推廣，將會(huì)創(chuàng)造更多國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)會(huì)，同時(shí)減少排放并加強(qiáng)能源安全。”

資源匱乏的日本今年主辦了七國集團(tuán)峰會(huì)，并一再強(qiáng)調(diào)實(shí)現(xiàn)能源安全和2050年凈零排放的需要。這不僅包括可再生能源，還包括天然氣等化石燃料以及尚未大規(guī)模推廣的技術(shù)，包括碳捕獲、儲存和利用，以及在火力發(fā)電廠實(shí)現(xiàn)氨和氫氣的混合燃燒。

該國認(rèn)為，發(fā)展中國家也需要多樣化的途徑來實(shí)現(xiàn)碳排放減少目標(biāo)。

解鎖日本可再生能源潛力的關(guān)鍵是增加國家電網(wǎng)投資，使風(fēng)能和太陽能開發(fā)商更容易向最需要的地方供應(yīng)清潔電力。根據(jù)BNEF的報(bào)告，能夠?qū)|京和大阪等需求中心與北海道附近預(yù)計(jì)進(jìn)行的海上風(fēng)電項(xiàng)目或九州南部地區(qū)的太陽能開發(fā)等可再生能源開發(fā)連接起來，對于最大程度地發(fā)揮該國可再生能源潛力至關(guān)重要。

根據(jù)BNEF繪制的過渡情景，日本需要在2022年至2050年間進(jìn)行4893億美元的電網(wǎng)投資，以充分整合足夠的風(fēng)能、太陽能和電池來實(shí)現(xiàn)發(fā)電行業(yè)的脫碳。目前政府對于區(qū)域間輸電網(wǎng)投資的估計(jì)在中期可能在270億美元至405億美元之間。

胡耀東 譯自 鉆井地帶

原文如下：

Clean Tech Offers Cheapest Net Zero Path for Japan

The cheapest way for Japan to meet its 2030 emissions reduction and mid-century net zero goals is to deploy mature, clean technologies like wind and solar generation, and electric vehicles, according to a report from BloombergNEF.

The analysis stands in contrast to the transition pathway the country has staked out that may extend the life of its coal and gas-fired generation through 2050 by co-firing facilities with ammonia and hydrogen and capturing the emissions.

Japan’s climate transition policies have made it an outlier among its Group of Seven peers, who are mostly pivoting toward clean energy and away from fossil fuels that generate the carbon dioxide and methane releases warming the planet. Its current emissions-reduction trajectory strays the furthest from what’s needed by 2030 to reach net zero by 2050, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and the Network for Greening the Financial System.

Japan spent $1.8 trillion on fossil fuel imports over 2010-2022, which is equivalent to an annual average spending of more than 3% of GDP, according to BNEF’s New Energy Outlook Japan report released Tuesday.

“If Japan can redirect some of this expenditure toward deployment of mature clean technologies such as solar, wind and electric vehicles, it would create more domestic economic opportunities while reducing emissions and strengthening its energy security,” analyst David Kang said in the report.

Resource-poor Japan, which hosted the G-7 summit this year, has repeatedly emphasized the need for a variety of options to achieve energy security and net zero by 2050. That includes not only renewables, but fossil fuels like natural gas and technologies that have yet to be scaled up including carbon capture, storage and utilization, as well as co-firing ammonia and hydrogen in thermal power plants.

The country has argued that developing nations too need a diverse pathway to reach carbon emission reduction targets.

Key to unlocking Japan’s renewables potential is boosting the nation’s grid investment to make it easier for wind and solar developers to supply clean electrons where they are needed most, according to BNEF. Being able to connect demand centers like Tokyo and Osaka to renewable development like offshore wind installations expected near the northern island of Hokkaido or solar development in the southern region of Kyushu is crucial to maximizing the country’s renewables potential.

In the transition scenario mapped by out BNEF, Japan needs $489.3 billion in grid investment between 2022 and 2050 to fully integrate enough wind, solar and batteries to decarbonize its power generation sector. The current government’s estimate for interregional transmission grid investment is estimated at between $27 billion and $40.5 billion through mid-century.