《2023年世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)論》報(bào)告顯示，去年化石燃料占全球一次能源消費(fèi)量的82%，全球能源二氧化碳排放量增加0.9%

雖然經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的碳排放量一直在下降，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和能源消耗增加，非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家特別是亞太地區(qū)的國(guó)家，碳排放量卻正在急劇上升

解決全球碳排放問(wèn)題需要與亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)家合作，需要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新技術(shù)來(lái)擺脫對(duì)傳統(tǒng)化石燃料的依賴，以及平衡經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與環(huán)境責(zé)任戰(zhàn)略

據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2023年8月7日?qǐng)?bào)道，在過(guò)去的70年里，英國(guó)石油公司（bp）每年都會(huì)出版《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)論》報(bào)告。自1952年4月首次發(fā)布以來(lái)，《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)論》報(bào)告一直是能源行業(yè)值得信賴的信息來(lái)源，在提供全球石油、天然氣和煤炭生產(chǎn)和消費(fèi)的綜合數(shù)據(jù)方面發(fā)揮了重要作用。

bp發(fā)言人表示，bp決定將《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)論》報(bào)告的發(fā)布轉(zhuǎn)交給英國(guó)能源研究所(EI)，以便首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Spencer Dale的團(tuán)隊(duì)優(yōu)先考慮bp首席執(zhí)行官伯納德·魯尼的倡議，將bp轉(zhuǎn)型為可再生能源和低碳能源公司，從而節(jié)省時(shí)間和資源。

6月下旬，EI發(fā)布了《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)論》報(bào)告的首份版本，即第72版《世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)論》。本文作者將介紹報(bào)告中關(guān)于碳排放的調(diào)查結(jié)果。

創(chuàng)歷史新高的碳排放

《2023年世界能源統(tǒng)計(jì)評(píng)論》報(bào)告顯示，盡管太陽(yáng)能和風(fēng)能等可再生能源繼續(xù)快速增長(zhǎng)，但世界仍然嚴(yán)重依賴化石燃料來(lái)滿足能源需求。

雖然可再生能源以創(chuàng)歷史新高的速度增長(zhǎng)，但化石燃料在一次能源消費(fèi)總量中仍占82%的份額。天然氣和煤炭需求幾乎持平，油價(jià)反彈至接近疫情前的水平。

一年前，二氧化碳排放量經(jīng)歷了“近50年來(lái)最快的增長(zhǎng)速度”。 同時(shí)，“一年前二氧化碳排放量?jī)H比2018年的歷史最高水平低0.8%。除非經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退在今年下半年抑制全球能源需求，否則二氧化碳排放量將在2022年達(dá)到歷史新高”。

這種情況確實(shí)發(fā)生了，因?yàn)槿ツ昴茉炊趸寂欧帕吭黾恿?.9%，達(dá)到344億噸的新高，表明在遏制全球碳排放方面缺乏進(jìn)展。二氧化碳排放量已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)離了《巴黎協(xié)定》所要求的減排目標(biāo)。

EI總裁Juliet Davenport表示：“盡管風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能在電力領(lǐng)域進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，但全球與能源相關(guān)的溫室氣體排放總量再次增加。我們?nèi)栽诔c《巴黎協(xié)定》要求相反的方向前進(jìn)。”

亞洲驅(qū)動(dòng)碳減排進(jìn)程

世界上大多數(shù)國(guó)家似乎都在致力于減少碳排放，那么為什么全球碳排放量還在不斷增加?  

問(wèn)題在于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和發(fā)展中國(guó)家之間存在著巨大的二氧化碳排放差距。15年來(lái)，以高收入為主的38個(gè)經(jīng)合組織成員國(guó)的二氧化碳排放量一直在下降。它們現(xiàn)在的二氧化碳排放量與35年前的水平相當(dāng)。

與此同時(shí)，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張，發(fā)展中國(guó)家繼續(xù)迅速增加化石燃料的使用和碳污染。特別是亞太地區(qū)，在過(guò)去的50多年里，碳排放量呈爆炸式增長(zhǎng)。

發(fā)展中非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的碳排放量出現(xiàn)爆炸式增長(zhǎng)有兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵原因。首先，發(fā)展中非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家正在經(jīng)歷一個(gè)依賴煤炭的發(fā)展階段，類似于經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的歷史，那時(shí)后者還沒(méi)有更多地意識(shí)到氣候影響。其次，人口眾多的發(fā)展中國(guó)家的數(shù)十億人正在提高他們的生活水平和能源消耗。

因此，盡管人均化石燃料使用量落后于發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，但數(shù)十億人緩慢增加的消費(fèi)所產(chǎn)生的總排放影響，推動(dòng)了全球二氧化碳排放量的大部分上升。

鑒于全球60%的人口居住在快速增長(zhǎng)的亞太國(guó)家，這對(duì)控制二氧化碳排放構(gòu)成了巨大挑戰(zhàn)。遏制全球碳污染需要發(fā)展中國(guó)家擺脫對(duì)化石燃料的依賴，這種依賴一直困擾著經(jīng)合組織的發(fā)展。

巨大的挑戰(zhàn)  

當(dāng)人們質(zhì)疑為什么全球碳排放量不顧氣候警告而下降時(shí)，數(shù)據(jù)揭示了一個(gè)發(fā)人深省的現(xiàn)實(shí)。亞洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家的碳排放激增使其他地方的努力黯然失色。

不僅僅是像印度這樣的碳排放大國(guó)。亞太地區(qū)多個(gè)國(guó)家在追求經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)的同時(shí)，碳排放量也在不斷增加。

半個(gè)世紀(jì)以來(lái)，盡管發(fā)展中國(guó)家的二氧化碳排放量有所下降，但這些人口大國(guó)的碳排放量不斷增加，推動(dòng)全球二氧化碳排放量創(chuàng)下新高。在不扭轉(zhuǎn)亞洲急劇增長(zhǎng)曲線的情況下，世界控制碳排放的希望渺茫。

這是一項(xiàng)巨大的技術(shù)和外交挑戰(zhàn)。美國(guó)必須在開(kāi)拓和分享可負(fù)擔(dān)得起的低碳技術(shù)方面發(fā)揮帶頭作用，使發(fā)展中國(guó)家能夠超越對(duì)傳統(tǒng)化石燃料的依賴。迫切需要多邊合作，在不破壞氣候的前提下，開(kāi)辟一條公平、繁榮的道路。要馴服這頭碳排放巨獸，迫切需要亞洲的合作。

李峻 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global Carbon Emissions Hit New Record Despite Green Energy Push

·     The 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy revealed that fossil fuels account for 82% of the world's primary energy consumption, and CO2 emissions from energy rose by 0.9% in 2022.

·     Although emissions from OECD countries have been declining, non-OECD nations, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, are seeing a sharp rise due to economic growth and increased energy consumption.

·     Addressing global emissions requires collaboration with Asia's fast-growing nations, innovative technologies to bypass traditional fossil fuel dependence, and strategies to balance economic growth with environmental responsibility.

For the past 70 years, BP has annually published the Statistical Review of World Energy. Having been a trusted resource for the wider energy sector since its inaugural release in April 1952, the Statistical Review has been instrumental in providing comprehensive data on global oil, gas, and coal production and consumption.

According to a company spokesperson, BP decided to transfer the publication of the report to the Energy Institute (EI) to allow Chief Economist Spencer Dale’s team to prioritize Chief Executive Bernard Looney’s initiatives in transitioning the oil and gas company towards renewables and low-carbon energy, thereby freeing up time and resources.

In late June, the EI published its inaugural version of the report, which is the 72nd Edition of the Statistical Review of World Energy. Today, I will cover the report’s findings on carbon emissions.

Record High Carbon Emissions

The 2023 Review shows the world remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy needs, even as renewables like solar and wind continue rapid growth.

While renewable power expanded at record rates, fossil fuels maintained an 82% share of total primary energy consumption. Natural gas and coal demand stayed nearly flat with oil rebounding close to pre-pandemic levels.

A year ago, I reported that carbon dioxide emissions had experienced “the fastest growth rate in nearly 50 years.” I further noted “Emissions were only 0.8% short of the all-time high set in 2018. They are on a trajectory to reach a new all-time high in 2022 unless a recession curbs global energy demand in the second half of the year.”

That happened, as carbon dioxide emissions from energy rose 0.9% in 2022 to a new high of 34.4 billion metric tons, indicating lack of progress in curbing worldwide carbon output. Emissions have moved further away from the reductions called for in the Paris Agreement.

“Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again,” said EI President Juliet Davenport. “We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement.”

Asia Driving Emissions

With most of the world seemingly committed to reducing carbon emissions, why do they keep increasing?

The problem is that a massive emissions gap exists between developed and developing nations. The 38 mainly high-income OECD member countries have seen declining carbon dioxide outputs for 15 years. Their emissions now match levels from 35 years ago.

Meanwhile, developing countries continue rapidly increasing fossil fuel use and carbon pollution as economies expand. The Asia Pacific region, in particular, has seen explosive growth in carbon emissions over the past 50+ years.

Developing non-OECD nations have seen explosive growth in carbon emissions for two key reasons.

First, they are going through a coal-dependent development phase similar to OECD countries’ histories, before more awareness of climate impacts. Second, billions of people in populous developing countries are raising their living standards and energy consumption.

Thus, while per capita fossil fuel use lags developed nations, the aggregate emissions impact of billions of people slowly increasing consumption drives the bulk of rising global carbon dioxide output.

This poses a monumental challenge for emissions control when 60% of the world’s population resides in fast-growing Asia-Pacific countries. Curbing worldwide carbon pollution will require developing nations to leapfrog the fossil fuel dependence that plagued OECD development.

A Monumental Challenge

When people question why global carbon emissions won’t fall despite climate warnings, the data reveals a sobering reality. The emissions explosion in Asia’s developing nations eclipses efforts elsewhere.

It’s not only mammoth emitters like India. Multiple countries across the Asia-Pacific region are increasing emissions while pursuing rapid economic growth. 

For half a century and counting, the emissions expansion in these populous nations has propelled global carbon dioxide to new records despite declines in developing countries. The world has little hope of reining in emissions without reversing Asia’s steep growth curve.

This presents an imposing technological and diplomatic challenge. The U.S. must take the lead in pioneering and sharing affordable low-carbon technologies enabling developing nations to leapfrog the traditional fossil fuel dependence. And urgent multilateral cooperation is needed to chart an equitable, prosperous path without dooming the climate. Taming the emissions beast requires Asia’s urgent partnership.