???? 據福布斯3月29日報道，頁巖油氣公司僅僅通過大量開采石油就能說服投資者掏腰包的日子已經一去不復返了。如今，一群不同的、更為保守的投資者在頁巖行業擁有著影響力，他們要求的不是令人矚目的石油產量數據，而是穩定的股東回報、積極的自由現金流和更小的環境影響。

????畢馬威會計師事務所(KPMG)全球能源主管Regina Mayor在接受采訪時表示:“堅守頁巖行業的投資者是穩定的，他們希望該板塊的投資和開發更加謹慎，資產投資需要有可預見性，只關注產量增長的投資者們已經走了。”

????盡管美國成為了世界上最大的石油生產國，但美國頁巖油行業還是疏遠了推動其產量驚人增長的投資者。德勤會計師事務所(Deloitte)去年的一項研究顯示，2010年至2020年，石油行業的凈自由現金流為負，為3000億美元，超過埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)的年收入。幻想破滅的風險投資公司和其他尋求高增長的基金早在疫情爆發前就已經退出了該行業，但病毒引發的石油暴跌加速了它們的撤退。

????頁巖公司現在已經將注意力轉移到剩下的這些投資者上。

????研究分析公司IHS Markit的副總裁拉烏爾·勒布朗(Raoul LeBlanc)在接受采訪時表示：“他們仍然背負著堆積如山的債務，有著糟糕的業績。因此，他們真正關注的是試圖證明頁巖板塊是可以盈利的。”

????到目前為止，該行業已表現出對這一目標的承諾。即使WTI油價恢復到疫情爆發前的每桶略高于60美元的水平，頁巖生產商也選擇節約現金，而不是將其用于新的生產。咨詢公司Rystad Energy本月初的一份報告顯示，今年新設備的總支出（資本支出或資本支出）將與2020年大致持平，而2020年是許多運營商大幅削減開支的一年。當前，盡管油價不斷上漲，美國每周鉆探新石油或天然氣的鉆機數量（衡量未來產量水平和現金支出意愿的常用指標）仍遠低于疫情爆發前的水平。

????這意味著將有更大比例的受益留給股東。從歷史上看，頁巖公司會將所有可自由支配的現金流重新投資到新的資本支出中，然后再借入額外資金進行再投資。但據IHS Markit的LeBlanc稱，這種再投資率曾經高達現金流的110-130%，現在已經降至更為節儉的60-65%，甚至更低。

????投資者不僅僅想要控制資本支出，他們還呼吁企業控制排放，減少甲烷燃燒等不良行為。化石燃料領域許多最大的投資機構現在已經采用了協議，對自己在化石燃料領域的持股情況進行仔細審查。

????王佳晶 摘譯自 福布斯

????原文如下：

????Shale Oil’s New Investors Want Discipline And A Smaller Environmental Footprint

????Gone are the days when shale oil and gas companies could persuade investors to write checks by simply pumping lots of oil. These days a different and more conservative class of investor commands influence in the shale industry, demanding not head-turning oil production figures but consistent shareholder returns, positive free cash flow, and a smaller environmental footprint.

????"The investor community that stuck with [the shale industry] is the steady ones, that want discipline, that want predictability,” said Regina Mayor, global head of energy at accounting firm KPMG, in an interview. “That's the investor base they are all pandering to now. The growth investors are gone.”

????Despite turning America into the world’s top oil-producing country, the U.S. shale oil industry succeeded in alienating the investors who enabled its astounding growth. Between 2010 and 2020 the industry had negative net free cash flows of $300 billion, more than the annual revenue of Exxon Mobil, according to a study last year by accounting firm Deloitte. Disillusioned venture capital firms and other high-growth-seeking funds were already exiting the sector before the pandemic, but the virus-caused oil rout accelerated their retreat.

????Shale firms have now shifted focus to holding on to the investors that remain.

????“They still have a mountain of debt, they have a bad track record, and they know that everybody doesn't like them,” said Raoul LeBlanc, a vice president at IHS Markit, a research and analysis firm, in an interview. “So they're really focused on trying to show that shale can be profitable.”

????So far, the industry has shown commitment to that goal. Even as WTI oil prices return to pre-pandemic levels of just above $60 per barrel, shale producers are choosing to conserve cash rather than spend it on new production. Total spending on new equipment (capital expenditure or capex) this year will be roughly the same as in 2020, a year when many operators made drastic cuts, according to a note by the consultancy Rystad Energy earlier this month. And despite rising oil prices, the weekly count of rigs drilling for new oil or gas in the U.S. — a common measure of future production levels and willingness to spend cash — is still well below before the pandemic.

????This has meant a larger share of earnings is left over to hand back to shareholders. Historically shale companies have reinvested all of their discretionary cash flow back into new capital spending and then borrowed extra to reinvest on top of that. But now this reinvestment rate, once as high as 110-130% of cash flows, has now fallen to a far more frugal 60-65% or less, according to IHS Markit’s LeBlanc.

????Investors don’t just want capital discipline; they are also clamoring for firms to reign in emissions and clean up bad practices such as methane flaring. Many of the largest institutional investors in the sector have now adopted protocols that require them to carefully scrutinize their holdings in fossil fuels.