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美國天然氣市場復蘇

   2022-04-25 互聯網綜合消息

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核心提示:據伍德麥肯茲4月22日報道,在阿爾弗雷德·丁尼生(Alfred Lord Tennyson)的詩中,可怕的巨型烏賊長期沉睡在

據伍德麥肯茲4月22日報道,在阿爾弗雷德·丁尼生(Alfred Lord Tennyson)的詩中,可怕的巨型烏賊長期沉睡在海底,處于“古老的、無夢的、無意識”睡眠中,直到它突然醒來,咆哮著浮出水面。美國天然氣市場的情況有點類似,自2009年以來,基準Henry Hub天然氣均價約為3.30美元/百萬英熱單位,很少突破5美元/百萬英熱。但本周,近月期貨價格自2008年以來首次突破8美元/ 百萬英熱

盡管天然氣價格在周四晚間迅速回落,降至7美元/百萬英熱以下,但加速飆升突顯出市場的新趨勢。美國天然氣的供應側和需求側的變化結合在一起,降低了市場靈活性,增加了價格波動性。有充分的理由認為,目前相對較高的價格不會長期持續下去,但至少在一段時間內,肯定有可能出現更高的峰值。

在需求方面,市場缺乏彈性的部分原因是燃煤發電能力的減少。已經有一波已經達到經濟壽命的燃煤電廠被關閉,這往往是由于環境法規和企業排放目標推動的。從2015年到2020年,美國每年平均損失11千兆瓦的燃煤發電能力。

這意味著,煤炭對天然氣價格的限制能力減弱了。傳統意義上,如果天然氣價格上漲到足夠高的水平,發電企業就會轉而燃燒更多煤炭,使市場達到平衡。煤炭產能損失意味著緩沖已經被侵蝕,低庫存導致其影響力進一步被削弱。

與此同時,北美天然氣市場與世界其他地區聯系日益緊密。自從2016年Cheniere能源公司從路易斯安那州Sabine Pass運輸第一批貨物以來,液化天然氣進口增長與全球趨勢聯系在一起。當全球天然氣市場供應過剩時,就像2020年夏季那樣,美國液化天然氣出口下降,壓低了北美價格。

當全球市場供應緊張時,就像今天這樣,美國液化天然氣出口國滿負荷運轉。伍德麥肯茲美洲天然氣團隊研究主管尤金?金(Eugene Kim)表示,這引發了人們的擔憂,即美國天然氣存儲量是否足以維持到明年冬天,這加大了價格上行壓力。

與此同時,在供應方面,生產商對高油價的反應在許多情況下受到限制,因為企業承諾維持資本紀律、償還債務和向投資者返還現金。此前,在海恩斯維爾頁巖生產天然氣的康斯托克資源公司(Comstock Resources)就是一個很好的例子。在當前天然氣價格下,該公司正在產生自由現金流,盡管其已經對沖了大約50%的產量。該公司計劃將債務與調整后收益比率從2020年的3.8倍大幅降至今年的1.5倍。該公司宣布,將利用部分現金流,在2025年贖回2.45億美元優先債券,收益率為7.5%。該公司表示,一旦實現了杠桿率目標,將致力于向股東返還資本。與此同時,該公司計劃今年平均總產量增長約為2%-7%。

勘探和生產公司的資本約束意味著,美國4月份天然氣產量僅比2021年4月高出約3%。

之所以認為目前的市場狀況將是有時間限制的,是因為美國仍有大量天然氣儲量,可以以相對較低的成本生產。尤金?金(Eugene Kim)表示,“從根本上決定美國天然氣長期價格的,是需要引入市場以滿足需求的邊際天然氣成本。得益于豐富的低成本天然氣資源,Henry Hub基本價格接近3美元/百萬英熱,而目前市場價格高達8美元/百萬英熱”。

盡管如此,現在天然氣市場已經“覺醒”,可能還需要一段時間才能再次進入“休眠”狀態,煤炭替代天然氣的可能性只會下降。美國目前的燃煤發電能力約為200吉瓦伍德麥肯茲預測,到2030年,這一數字將降至約9000萬千瓦。在同一時期,風能和太陽能預計將迅速增長,這可能會造成天然氣市場因產量變化而出現額外的失衡。會影響管理天然氣價格波動的投資,包括地下儲存的投資,可能看起來越來越有吸引力。

油田服務集團哈里伯頓(Halliburton)報告稱,第一季度收入增長24%,調整后收益增長44%,并對今年剩余時間里的前景表示樂觀。該公司首席執行官杰夫?米勒(Jeff Miller)表示,“我們看到,北美整個油氣價值鏈都存在嚴重供應緊張。在設備市場幾乎售罄的情況下,大宗商品價格的支撐和客戶需求的增強,預計將推動完井作業和生產部門的利潤率擴大”。

美國聯邦儲備理事會(美聯儲)最新能源調查顯示,包括俄克拉何馬州、科羅拉多州和懷俄明州在內的聯邦儲備區的石油生產商表示,在平均每桶62美元的原油價格下鉆井是有利可圖的,當價格到達每桶86美元,就可以大幅增加活動。

王佳晶 摘譯自 伍德麥肯茲

原文如下:

The US natural gas market wakes up

The Kraken, the monstrous giant squid in Alfred Lord Tennyson’s poem, lies for long ages at the bottom of the ocean in “ancient, dreamless, uninvaded sleep”, until suddenly it wakes and rises roaring to the surface. The US natural gas market has been a bit like that. Since 2009, benchmark Henry Hub gas has averaged about $3.30 per million British Thermal Units, and has only rarely spiked above $5. But this week, the front month futures price went above $8 / mmBTU, for the first time since 2008.

Although gas prices quickly fell back — the futures were back below $7 / mmBTU on Thursday evening — the price spike has highlighted the new dynamics in the market. Changes on both the supply side and the demand side for US gas are combining to reduce flexibility and increase price volatility. There are good reasons to think that the current (relatively) high prices will not last in the long term. But for a while at least, further spikes are definitely possible.

On the demand side, the inflexibility in the market is being created in part by the loss of coal-fired power generation capacity. There has been a wave of shutdowns of coal-fired plants that have reached the end of their economic lives, often hastened by environmental regulations and corporate emissions goals. The US lost an average of 11 gigawatts of coal-fired generation capacity every year between 2015 and 2020.

That means coal is less able to act to put a cap on gas prices. Traditionally, if gas prices rose high enough, generators would switch to burning more coal, bringing the market into balance. The loss of coal capacity means that buffer has been eroded. Low thermal coal stockpiles have weakened it further.

At the same time, North America’s gas market is becoming increasingly connected to the rest of the world. once largely sealed off in splendid isolation, it has been linked to global trends by the growth of LNG imports since Cheniere Energy shipped its first cargo from Sabine Pass Louisiana in 2016. When the global gas market is oversupplied, as it was in the summer of 2020, US LNG exports drop, driving down prices in North America.

When global markets are tight, as they are today, US LNG exporters run at full capacity. That has been stoking concerns over whether gas in storage in the US will be adequate going into next winter, contributing to the upward pressure on prices, says Eugene Kim, a research director on Wood Mackenzie’s Americas gas team.

On the supply side, meanwhile, producers’ responses to high prices are being constrained in many cases by companies’ commitments to maintaining capital discipline, paying down debt and returning cash to investors. There was a good example of this last week from Comstock Resources, which produces gas in the Haynesville Shale. It is generating free cash at current gas prices, even though it has hedged about 50% of its production. It is planning a steep reduction in its debt, from 3.8 times adjusted earnings in 2020 to 1.5 times this year, and announced last week that it would use some of its cash flow to redeem US$245 million of 7.5% senior notes, due 2025. once its leverage ratio target has been achieved, the company says, it will aim to return capital to shareholders. Meanwhile it is planning for average overall production growth of roughly 2-7% this year.

That capital discipline among E&P companies means that US gas production this month is running only about 3% higher than in April 2021.

The reason to think that current market conditions will be time limited is that the US still has very large gas reserves that can be produced at relatively low cost. “What sets the long-term price of US gas fundamentally is the marginal gas molecule required to be brought into the marketplace to meet demand,” Eugene Kim says. “Blessed with plentiful low-cost gas resources, the fundamental price of Henry Hub is closer to $3/mmBTU, rather than the current market prices that have been as high as $8/mmBTU.”

Still, now the gas market has been woken up, it may be a while before it goes back to sleep again. The availability of coal as an alternative to gas is only going to decline. The US today has about 200 gigawatts of coal-fired generation capacity. Wood Mackenzie forecasts that by 2030, that will have dropped to only about 90 GW. Over the same period, wind and solar power are expected to grow rapidly, creating a threat of additional gas market imbalances caused by variations in their output. Investments to help manage gas price volatility, including underground storage, may look increasingly attractive.

In brief

Halliburton, the oilfield services group, reported a 24% jump in revenues and a 44% increase in adjusted earnings for the first quarter, and gave an upbeat view of its prospects for the rest of the year. Chief executive Jeff Miller said: “We see significant tightness across the entire oil and gas value chain in North America. Supportive commodity prices and strengthening customer demand against an almost sold-out equipment market are expected to drive expansion in Completion and Production division margins.”

Oil producers in the Federal Reserve district that includes Oklahoma, Colorado and Wyoming say they need on average a crude price of $62 per barrel for drilling to be profitable, but $86 per barrel for a substantial increase in activity, according to the latest energy survey from the Kansas City Fed.



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