據鉆機地帶網站5月8日報道，BMI油氣研究主管Joseph Gatdula表示，油價“大幅回落”的風險越來越大。

Gatdula告訴鉆機地帶稱，鑒于不確定的經濟前景，油價大幅回落的風險越來越大，特別是考慮到持續的通貨膨脹正影響著全球市場。并補充稱，如果通脹依然頑固，利率繼續上升，無疑會給油價帶來壓力，并可能導致油價出現下一輪下跌。

至于美國，Gatdula表示，美聯儲仍致力于抑制通脹，并警告稱，如果通脹繼續保持“黏性”上行，將有必要進一步加息。

Gatdula對鉆機地帶表示，利率的不確定性既增加了價格的上行空間（來自那些認為加息很快就會逆轉的人），也增加了價格的下行空間。

他補充道，盡管目前，疲軟的經濟前景正在給價格帶來壓力，對反彈的預期也不那么令人信服。

Gatdula警告稱，價格的另一個風險是對銀行系統的“沖擊”，導致信貸市場收緊，這也可能引發油價下跌。

盡管BMI負責人指出，該公司并不排除油價暴跌的可能性，但Gatdula概述了該公司認為有兩種主要機制可以阻止油價大幅下跌。

他表示，首先是歐佩克+在管理供應方面的決心。并補充道，4月份的意外減產只會強化“歐佩克看跌市場”。

Gatdula繼續說道，其次，美國已承諾補充耗盡的美國戰略石油儲備。最近的市場傾向使美國有望將WTI的目標設定在每桶67～72美元的區間，如果這觸發美國政府的采購程序，理論上應該為油價設定一個下限。

PVM Oil Associates的石油分析師Stephen Brennock告訴鉆機地帶，他強烈懷疑今年油價是否會暴跌。

Brennock表示，盡管經合組織(OECD)的需求前景黯淡，但歐佩克+的供應限制，將確保在未來幾個月內實現支持價格的石油平衡。

他補充稱，如果油價長期跌破每桶80美元，可以肯定的是，歐佩克將通過進一步減少供應來充當后盾，以確保油價回升至這一關鍵門檻之上。

到目前為止，布倫特原油2023年的最高收盤價是1月23日的每桶88.19美元。2023年最低的收盤價是5月3日的72.33美元/桶。在撰寫本文時，布倫特原油價格為每桶76.16美元。

郝芬 譯自 鉆機地帶

原文如下：

Could the Oil Price Crash in 2023?

A “major pullback” in oil prices is a growing risk, according to Joseph Gatdula, the Head of Oil & Gas Research at BMI.

“Given the uncertain economic outlook, a major pullback in oil prices is a growing risk, especially given the persistent inflation impacting markets globally,” Gatdula told Rigzone.

“A scenario in which inflation remains stubborn and rates continue to increase would undoubtedly put pressure on oil prices and could warrant the next leg down in prices,” he added.

Looking at the U.S., Gatdula said the Federal Reserve remains committed to taming inflation and warned that, should inflation continue to remain “sticky” to the upside, it would warrant further rate hikes.

“The uncertainty around rates is adding both upside (from those believe a reversal in hikes is due shortly) and downside to prices,” Gatdula told Rigzone.

“Although currently, the weak economic outlook is weighing on prices and expectations for a rebound is less convincing,” he added.

Gatdula warned that an additional risk to prices is a “shock” to the banking system resulting in tightened credit markets “that could also trigger a fall in oil prices”.

Although the BMI Head noted that the company doesn’t preclude the probability that oil prices could crash, Gatdula outlined that the business sees two main mechanisms halting a major slide in prices.

“The first being the OPEC+ resolve at managing supply,” he said, adding that “the surprise production cuts in April only reinforce the ‘OPEC Put’”.

“Secondly, the U.S. has committed to refill the depleted U.S. strategic petroleum reserves. Recent guidance puts the U.S. on track to target a range for WTI of $67-72 per barrel which should in theory set a floor for oil prices, should it trigger the U.S. government’s purchasing process,” Gatdula continued.

Stephen Brennock, an Oil Analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told Rigzone he strongly doubts that oil prices will crash this year.

“Irrespective of the darkening demand outlook in the OECD, supply restraint from OPEC+ will ensure a price-supportive oil balance prevails in the coming months,” Brennock said.

“Should oil prices dip below $80 per barrel on a prolonged basis, you can bet that OPEC will act as a backstop by further reducing supply to ensure prices recover above this key threshold,” he added.

Brent’s highest 2023 close, so far, was registered on January 23 at $88.19 per barrel. It’s lowest 2023 close, so far, was seen on May 3, at $72.33 per barrel. At the time of writing, Brent is trading at $76.16 per barrel.