據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)6月26日?qǐng)?bào)道，油價(jià)上漲和資本支出規(guī)定正在為今年全球勘探和生產(chǎn)公司創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的最高自由現(xiàn)金流奠定基礎(chǔ)。而美國(guó)頁(yè)巖公司——將產(chǎn)生 600 億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流——準(zhǔn)備在全球上游業(yè)務(wù)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的自由現(xiàn)金流中發(fā)揮關(guān)鍵作用。獨(dú)立研究公司雷斯塔能源（Rystad Energy） 在一份新報(bào)告中表示，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖地區(qū)預(yù)計(jì)將成為資本支出規(guī)定和高油價(jià)的最大受益者，也是全球上游業(yè)務(wù)有史以來(lái)最高自由現(xiàn)金流的最大貢獻(xiàn)者。

　　70美元的油價(jià)當(dāng)然會(huì)有很大幫助，但也是每一家石油公司的資本規(guī)定——從石油巨頭到美國(guó)獨(dú)立石油公司——促成了今年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流。

　　今年自由現(xiàn)金流將達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的3480億美元

　　今年全球上市石油公司的總自由現(xiàn)金流量（不包括融資或?qū)_效應(yīng)的上游活動(dòng)產(chǎn)生的所有現(xiàn)金流量）將飆升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的3480億美元。根據(jù)雷斯塔能源的估計(jì)，這將比2008年創(chuàng)下的3110億美元的歷史高點(diǎn)高出370億美元。當(dāng)時(shí)，就在金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前，當(dāng)年的平均油價(jià)為每桶100美元。

　　據(jù)雷斯塔能源預(yù)測(cè)，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄現(xiàn)金流的關(guān)鍵驅(qū)動(dòng)力將是美國(guó)頁(yè)巖地區(qū)，據(jù)估計(jì)，在對(duì)沖效應(yīng)出現(xiàn)之前，該地區(qū)將獲得近600億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流。

　　這將是美國(guó)頁(yè)巖鉆探商財(cái)務(wù)狀況的一次大逆轉(zhuǎn)，自頁(yè)巖革命開始以來(lái)，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖鉆探商十年來(lái)一直在努力創(chuàng)造正的自由現(xiàn)金流。

　　“頁(yè)巖新時(shí)代”的曙光

　　據(jù)彭博情報(bào)(Bloomberg Intelligence)估計(jì)，由于嚴(yán)格的資本支出和較高的油價(jià)，2021年美國(guó)頁(yè)巖生產(chǎn)商預(yù)計(jì)將產(chǎn)生總計(jì)300億美元的自由現(xiàn)金流。這與過(guò)去的繁榮和蕭條周期截然不同，當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)頁(yè)巖氣區(qū)塊為了開采和生產(chǎn)盡可能多的石油而負(fù)債累累，導(dǎo)致油價(jià)下跌。

　　然而，今年可能成為分析師們開始稱之為美國(guó)頁(yè)巖“新時(shí)代”的開始，在這個(gè)新時(shí)代，股東回報(bào)和償還債務(wù)將優(yōu)先于產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)和創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的產(chǎn)量。

　　根據(jù)德勤（Deloitte）去年的估計(jì)，自頁(yè)巖首次繁榮以來(lái)的15年里，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)損失了3000億美元的凈負(fù)現(xiàn)金流，而今年預(yù)計(jì)從自由現(xiàn)金流中獲得的意外收入僅為這一損失的十分之一。

　　盡管如此，對(duì)今年自由現(xiàn)金流的預(yù)期讓分析師們樂(lè)觀地認(rèn)為，頁(yè)巖區(qū)塊正處于轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，至少還會(huì)再維持一到兩年。

　　據(jù)雷斯塔能源稱，預(yù)計(jì)2021年頁(yè)巖的自由現(xiàn)金流將超過(guò)深水區(qū)和淺水區(qū)的自由現(xiàn)金流。

　　這家情報(bào)公司表示，傳統(tǒng)的陸上供應(yīng)部門將獲得最大的自由現(xiàn)金流份額，達(dá)到 1600 億美元，但這仍低于這些上游活動(dòng)在2011年創(chuàng)下的紀(jì)錄。

　　為超額利潤(rùn)做好準(zhǔn)備的石油公司

　　由于油價(jià)上漲、全球需求上升和市場(chǎng)趨緊，所有上市上游公司今年的總收入將比去年增長(zhǎng)55%，或近5000億美元。據(jù)雷斯塔能源估計(jì)，考慮到全球上市勘探開發(fā)公司今年的支出水平只會(huì)增加2%——得益于各公司仍然嚴(yán)格的資本約束規(guī)定——生產(chǎn)商的利潤(rùn)將大幅提高。

　　雷斯塔能源上游研究主管 Espen Erlingsen表示，在新冠疫情的最初沖擊之后，石油需求逐漸增加，歐佩克 + 繼續(xù)抑制市場(chǎng)的交易量。美國(guó)致密油活動(dòng)緩慢增加進(jìn)一步支撐了隨之而來(lái)的高價(jià)走勢(shì)。 加上持續(xù)的低投資環(huán)境，勘探與生產(chǎn)公司正享受超額利潤(rùn)。

　　例如，由于油價(jià)大幅上漲，今年第一季度，能源超級(jí)巨頭的收入幾乎回到了疫情爆發(fā)前的水平。據(jù)分析師表示，隨著本季度油價(jià)上漲，收益有望進(jìn)一步上升。

　　伍德麥肯茲（Wood Mackenzie）今年初表示，如果原油均價(jià)為每桶55美元，油價(jià)上漲、保守支出以及去年大幅削減成本的好處將為今年大型石油公司創(chuàng)造創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的現(xiàn)金流創(chuàng)造條件。

　　考慮到投行和預(yù)測(cè)機(jī)構(gòu)目前預(yù)測(cè)今年油價(jià)平均至少為每桶65美元，而且越來(lái)越多的大型石油公司分析師和高管預(yù)測(cè)不排除在未來(lái)幾個(gè)季度油價(jià)將短暫飆升至每桶100美元的可能，這一預(yù)測(cè)甚至可能變得相當(dāng)保守。

　　包括頁(yè)巖地區(qū)在內(nèi)的E&P公司的當(dāng)務(wù)之急是利用預(yù)期的超利潤(rùn)，創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄現(xiàn)金流來(lái)償還債務(wù)和回報(bào)股東。資本控制今年可能會(huì)持續(xù)，但如果世界要避免在幾年內(nèi)陷入供應(yīng)赤字，上游投資將需要增加。

　　郝芬 譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

　　原文如下：

　　Dawn Of A New Era For U.S. Shale

　　Higher oil prices and capital expenditure discipline are setting the stage for the highest free cash flow on record for the world’s exploration and production companies this year. And U.S. shale firms—set to generate $60 billion free cash flow—are primed for playing a key role in the record-breaking free cash flow from global upstream operations. The U.S. shale patch is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of capex discipline and high oil prices, as well as the largest contributor to the highest-ever free cash flows from the upstream business globally, independent research firm Rystad Energy said in a new report.

　　$70 oil can certainly help a lot, but it is also capital discipline at every single oil company—from supermajors to U.S. independents—that is contributing to record cash flows this year.

　　Free Cash Flow Set To Hit Record-Breaking $348 Billion in 2021

　　The world’s public oil firms are set to see their combined free cash flow—all cash flows from upstream activity excluding such from financing or hedging effects—surge to a record-breaking $348 billion in 2021. According to estimates from Rystad Energy, this would be $37 billion higher than the previous all-time high of $311 billion, which was generated in 2008. Back then, just before the financial crisis, oil prices averaged $100 a barrel that year.

　　The key driver of record cash flows would be the U.S. shale patch, which is estimated to rake in nearly $60 billion in free cash flow before hedging effects, Rystad Energy forecasts.

　　This would be quite a U-turn in the financial fortunes of U.S. shale drillers, which have struggled to generate positive free cash flow for a decade since the shale revolution began.

　　The Dawn of ‘New Shale Era’

　　According to Bloomberg Intelligence estimates, U.S. shale producers are expected to generate a combined $30 billion in free cash flow in 2021 amid disciplined capital spending and higher oil prices. That’s so different from the past boom and bust cycles where the U.S. shale patch loaded up on debt to drill and produce as much oil as possible, contributing to sinking oil prices.

　　This year, however, could turn out to be the beginning of what analysts have started to call “a new era” for U.S. shale, where returns to shareholders and paying down debts take precedence over production growth and record output.

　　The expected windfall from free cash flow this year is just one-tenth of the $300 billion in net negative cash flow the U.S. shale industry has lost in the 15 years since the first shale boom, per Deloitte estimates from last year.

　　Nevertheless, the expectations of free cash flow this year make analysts optimistic that the shale patch is at a turning point and will keep discipline for at least another year or two.

　　According to Rystad Energy, shale’s free cash flow in 2021 is expected to exceed the free cash flows from both the deepwater and shallow water segments.

　　The conventional onshore supply segment will earn the biggest share of free cash flow, at $160 billion, but this will still be lower than the record from these upstream activities set in 2011, the intelligence company said.

　　Oil Firms Primed For Super-Profits

　　Gross revenues at all public upstream firms are set to surge by 55 percent, or by nearly $500 billion, this year compared to last year, thanks to higher oil prices, rising global demand, and a tighter market. Considering that spending levels of listed E&P firms globally are set for just a 2-percent increase this year—courtesy of still strong capital discipline across the board—producers are set for materially higher profits, Rystad Energy reckons.

　　“Oil demand has gradually increased after the initial shock of the Covid-19 pandemic, and OPEC+ continues to hold back volumes from the market. The consequent high price movement has been further supported by a slow ramp-up in US tight oil activity. In conjunction with the persisting low investment environment, E&Ps are enjoying super-profits,” Espen Erlingsen, head of upstream research at Rystad Energy, said.

　　Income at the supermajors, for example, nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of this year, thanks to dramatically higher oil prices. Further upsides in earnings are on the horizon with this quarter’s oil price rally, analysts say.

　　Higher oil prices, conservative spending, and the benefits of the massive cost cuts from last year are setting the stage for record cash flows at Big Oil this year if the price of oil averages $55 per barrel, Wood Mackenzie said at the start of this year.

　　This forecast could even turn out to be quite conservative, considering that investment banks and forecasters now see oil prices averaging at least $65 a barrel this year, and a growing number of analysts and top executives at Big Oil aren’t ruling out a brief spike to $100 per barrel in coming quarters.

　　The immediate priority for E&P firms, including in the shale patch, will be to use the expected super-profits and record cash flows to pay down debts and reward shareholders. Capital discipline will likely hold this year, but upstream investment will need to rise if the world is to avoid sleepwalking into a supply deficit within a few years.